Full write-up + the working watchlist, charts, and the screening exports are on Substack. Full breakdown + the key chart here: https://t.co/zgrAHgcYv2 #Markets#Investing
Markets love simple stories. Right now two are dueling: “Quantum is the next trillion-dollar wave” vs “AI will commoditize software.” Both can be true — timing is where money is made. This weekend I built a watchlist across three lanes.
The common edge across all three lanes: patience, process, and risk control. My playbook: don’t buy stories, buy confirmation; start small; if it can't hold key levels it’s not a leader yet. For AI-panic names I track retention, bookings, product velocity, charts.
MSTR looks like a software company, but today it's a public Bitcoin accumulation machine wrapped in an operating shell. That matters because you're not buying BTC alone — you're buying BTC plus a market-priced wrapper (mNAV). Here's how I think about the two-engine trade.
The part most people miss: the software business is small next to a tens-of-billions BTC balance sheet. As of Sept 30 2025 Strategy reported ~ $73B digital asset carrying value. Investors are buying a balance-sheet play + capital structure, not SaaS growth alone.
If you want the full playbook — detailed entries, exact stop levels, the prompts I used in Grok, plus the sector table and my monthly review checklist — I put it all in this week’s Sail The Dip.
Full write-up + charts here: https://t.co/OcEcvSnH8G #RealEstate#Investing
I’ve been out of real estate for years. High rates and leverage destroyed returns. Now rates are rolling over and my scans — price action plus simple AI signals — are finally lighting up. I’m starting small and staying disciplined. Here’s what I’m watching and why I’m cautious.
Sizing & risk filters: max 5–7% per name, sector cap 20–25%, only enter on confirmed strength, hard stops, and smaller size for developers. Biggest macro risk: a rate-fake where cuts don’t materialise or inflation re-accelerates. Stay small until flows confirm.