Sakura Research

Sakura Research.
Opinions only. Not Investment Advice.
Use and/or view of our materials is at your own risk.

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

Sakura Research report on Applovin #APP Corp:
A cash-poor company with a distressed balance sheet and questionable asset quality, not paying income taxes.
The financials of its overseas subsidiaries are suspect, exhibiting signs of revenue round-tripping and/or fictitious revenues.
Additionally, the company has sketchy products and a shallow AI team. (NASDAQ:APP) #Applovin
We think that Applovin is a company with a large number of red flags, focused on enriching the insiders.
Read the full report on our website.

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

MiRXES Holding Co Ltd (ticker HKG 2629) #Mirxes
Key technology fail,
Stagnant non-scalable IP portfolio,
Senior team exodus,
Fragile revenue base with shady customers, one-off & complimentary projects.
All key product/service revenues are suffering.

https://t.co/99FPLSO0F2

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

@straits_times Listed in Hong Kong in May 2025.

Early 2026: Missed the deadline for filing its 2025 results, as KPMG auditors probe vendor payments.

Strange.

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

@stbusinessdesk Listed in Hong Kong in May 2025.

Early 2026: Missed the deadline for filing its 2025 results, as auditors probe vendor payments.

This is odd.

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

KPMG flagged problems with 14 transactions involving ~$14.8M in prepayments to vendors by #MiRXES for new projects (mostly in late 2025).
Many payments were made before work started or progressed properly. ~$9.5M has already been returned & $5.3M is still outstanding
HKG 2629

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

#Mirxes revenues remained stagnant at ~US$20m annually from 2022-2024, driven by few suspicious top customers, one-off projects & free company-sponsored check-ups
Since 2020 clinical approval in Singapore, the key product, #GastroClear had 44% YoY drop in its SG revenues in H1'25

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

#Mirxes revenues remained stagnant at ~US$20m annually from 2022-2024, driven by few suspicious top customers, one-off projects & free company-sponsored check-ups
Since 2020 clinical approval in Singapore, the key product, #GastroClear had 44% YoY drop in its SG revenues in H1'25

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

Sakura Research is sharing its Sep-2025 bearish report on HongKong-listed Singapore biotech #Mirxes
*Listed in Hong Kong in May 2025.
*Missed the deadline for filing its 2025 results, as auditors probe vendor payments.
#miRNA 2629 HK: #MiRXES Holding
https://t.co/dS9DEW93ph

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

@BearBullDebate Thanks.
It is an old report, but we think it is very relevant now as the company has delayed releasing its 2025 annual results.

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

Sakura Research is sharing its Sep-2025 bearish report on HongKong-listed Singapore biotech #Mirxes
*Listed in Hong Kong in May 2025.
*Missed the deadline for filing its 2025 results, as auditors probe vendor payments.
#miRNA 2629 HK: #MiRXES Holding
https://t.co/dS9DEW93ph

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

The Shanghai CSI AI index has returned over 61% this year and the Hang Seng biotech index is up 98%. @FT

We are publishing a report this week on a Hong Kong-listed unprofitable biotech company, highlighting its fragile revenue base, key technology failures, abandoned pipelines and clinical trials, stagnant IP portfolio, regulatory and competitive barriers, senior team exodus. All resulting in the company’s recent pivot to highly competitive, lower-margin and asset-intensive testing services.
We estimate 90% downside based on comparable P/S valuation of its profitable peers.
Follow us to be the first to know. #HKbiotech

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

#AppLovin reported an increase in GAAP cash flows in Q2, with a $305 million inflow plus an additional $425 million inflow from the mobile apps disposal (TripleDot sale). $APP

Stock Buybacks are almost (-0.98) perfectly inversely correlated with ending cash balance.

For the correlation analysis, we considered three annual periods (2022, 2023, 2024) and two quarterly periods from 2025 (Q1 and Q2).

Applovin share repurchase is the dominant driver of liquidity fluctuations.

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

9/ After the disastroust #TransCore acquisition in early 2022, goodwill accounted for a whopping 106% of STE Shareholders’ Equity (as of the end 2024).

Despite the rising global interest rate environment — with Fed funds rates increasing to 4.25%–4.50%
by 2024 from around 0% in early 2022 — STE management actually reduced its pre-tax discount rate for goodwill impairment testing from 8.9% in 2022 to 8% in 2023, and 7.0% in 2024.

This defies standard valuation logic and contradicts macroeconomic reality, as discount rates should rise in tandem with higher capital costs and risk premiums. Such adjustments effectively suppress the likelihood of
triggering a goodwill impairment in 2023 and 2024 despite the horrendous financial performance of USS segment post-acquisition.

#STEngineering #Singapore #S63 #SGX #UrbanSolutionsSatcom #USS

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

1/ We are short Singapore Technologies Engineering. (SGX: S63)
Full report @ https://t.co/jcX2bbiTig
#SGX #S63 #STEngineering

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

8/ The Group’s management must be held accountable to its investors—particularly Temasek—for the costly, under-performing, and value-destructive S$3.6B TransCore acquisition.
Local regulators and auditors should closely examine the absence of any goodwill impairment taken by STE in 2023 and 2024, given the mounting evidence to the contrary.
#STEngineering #STE #Singapore

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

Haw Par: Call for Strategic Review – Simplify the group structure by distributing UOB and UOL Group shares, increase stock liquidity, focus on high-growth, high-return segments, and maximize ROE (SGX: H02)

Sakura Research is long Haw Par Corporation (SGX: H02).

HPC Share Price: ~S$12.80
Net Asset Value per Share (as of 31-Dec-2024): S$18.74
Market Cap: ~S$2.8 billion (~US$2.13 billion)
Dividend Yield: 10.8% (20¢ initial dividend, 20¢ final dividend, and $1 special dividend)
Price/Net Tangible Book Value: 0.69
Strong Net Cash Position: S$710 million in net cash (after deducting borrowings) and S$143 millionin liquid debt instruments, together representing around 30% of market cap.
HPC ownership of STI-30 stocks: Around 74.8 million shares of UOB (~$2.8b)and around 72 million shares of UOL Group (~$417m), representing around 113% of HPC’s market capitalization.
5-year share price performance: Terribly low 21% for HPC, compared to UOB’s approximately 100% increase and the STI Index’s approximately 62% increase.

Why Sakura Research is long Haw Par Corporation (HPC)
1) Management is Keen to Reward the Shareholders:
HPC management is now committed to rewarding all shareholders, with a final dividend of 20¢ and a special dividend of $1, resulting in an annual dividend yield of approximately 10.8%.

2) Recession-Proof Strong Balance Sheet:
HPC boasts a rock-solid balance sheet, with 30% of its market cap in cash-like instruments (cash at hand and liquid debt instruments) and nearly zero intangibles. After deducting these liquid assets, HPC’s effective market cap is around S$1.98 billion only, making it an attractive investment at current prices.

3) Own UOB and UOL Group at Subsidized Prices:
HPC provides exposure to UOB Bank and UOL Group at a significant market discount. For every 3 HPC shares, investors receive 1 share of UOB Bank and 1 share of UOL Group. This is an excellent deal, as those 3 HPC shares cost about S$38, while the combined value of the 2 additional shares is ~S$43.
This arbitrage opportunity does not account for HPC’s massive cash pile, its fast-growing and highly profitable Healthcare Segment, the highly valuable Tiger brand, Singapore/Malaysia commercial properties, or Underwater World Pattaya.

4) Tiger Brand and High-Growth Healthcare Segment:
HPC’s healthcare segment is a standout, with 24% annual revenue CAGR from 2020 to 2024. This segment generates an impressive pre-tax ROA of around 40%. In 2024, the healthcare division had S$162 million in assets, generating S$226 million in sales and S$62 million in pre-tax profits. This is a high-growth, recession-resistant segment that will continue to drive the company’s profitability. This segment could be valued at S$2.3-$S2.5 billion on a stand-alone basis.

5) Limited Analyst Coverage of this Stock Gem
Despite strong operating results and an attractive dividend payout, analyst coverage of HPC remains terribly low. The most recent report was issued in July 2024, by CGS International, and it noted that HPC is trading below historical book value.

6) Opportunities to Improve Return on Equity (ROE):
Haw Par Coporations’s current Return on Equity (ROE) stands at approximately 6%, but it has the potential to increase this to at least 10%. One strategy to achieve this could be share repurchases, similar to what UOB Bank recently implemented with its $3 billion special dividend and buyback package. Increasing ROE through buybacks would create further shareholder value, but sadly, HPC’s most recent buyback was 18 years ago, in 2007.

7) Potential Stock Split to Boost Liquidity:
A stock split could increase liquidity, allowing HPC to become a likely candidate for inclusion in the SGX STI 30 Index. This could elevate HPC’s status alongside other index constituents, like UOB and UOL Group. It would also be a step toward replacing less compelling foreign companies, such as DFI Retail Group (China) and ThaiBev (Thailand), with a strong Singaporean company.

8) Simplification of the Group Structure through UOL & UOB share distributions to Haw Par Shareholders
We believe HPC’s management should simplify the corporate structure by distributing its UOL Group and UOB shareholdings as dividend-in-specie to improve stock liquidity, management focus, and enhance its growth potential.

#HawPar #HawParCorp #SGX #Singapore #H02 #UOB #UOBbank #TigerBalm

[Sakura Research @SakuraResearch]

Applovin $APP
A cash-poor company with a distressed balance sheet focused on enriching the insiders.

Since the IPO in 2021 until the end of 2024, Applovin has spent $3.89 billion on share repurchases,
while the reported net income during the same period was more than 2 times lower, at $1.77 billion only.

Congrats to the insiders, who earned billions from RSUs & PSUs. #applovin #ChinaHustle