Sam Callahan

Bitcoin | Director of Strategy & Research @ORANJEBTC 🍊 ₿ 🇧🇷 | $OBTC3 | $ORNJY

[Natalie Brunell ⚡️ @natbrunell]

Michael @Saylor believes Bitcoin can 500x.

The more interesting question is how.

At @BTCPrague, we discuss whether Bitcoin’s path forward is driven primarily by adoption and savings, or by capital flowing in through global credit markets.

We also tackle mNAV, concerns around dilution, and Bitcoin per share.

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Why Michael Saylor calls this the most exciting year in Bitcoin history
2:34 Setting the record straight: why Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin
3:55 How Strategy works like a reserve bank built on Bitcoin
6:58 How the company turns Bitcoin gains into payouts - without the tax hit
9:12 Answering the short sellers
11:40 Why a better credit rating could put Strategy in the S&P 500
13:27 Saylor responds to his critics on X
14:47 The constant balancing act: chasing growth without taking on too much risk
16:22 The balance sheet explained: what the company actually owes
20:56 What “digital credit” really means, in plain terms
24:06 What it really costs to raise money
27:31 The trade-off: more Bitcoin per share vs. more risk
41:07 Why idealism alone won’t get Bitcoin there - but big money can
49:42 The “AI summer” pulling money away and when it flows back to Bitcoin

[OranjeBTC @ORANJEBTC]

🇧🇷
Uma semana intensa para a tesouraria da OranjeBTC.

Destaques:
• Liquidamos uma dívida conversível com valor de face de ~US$23M mediante a entrega de 200 BTC
• Eliminamos a potencial emissão de 6,97M de ações adicionais
• Recompramos os mesmos 200 BTC no mercado por ~US$12,5M, preservando nossa exposição ao Bitcoin
• Adicionamos 1 BTC após o gol do Brasil contra Marrocos, dentro da BitCopa

Também atualizamos nossa metodologia de reporte para refletir a nova estrutura de capital e em breve disponibilizaremos ferramentas para que os acionistas possam estimar o BTC Yield líquido com suas próprias premissas.

Resultado:
• 3.804 BTC em tesouraria
• BTC Yield Bruto semanal de 4,65%
• BTC Yield Bruto 2T26 de 9,97%
• BTC Yield Bruto 2026 de 10,18%

O Comunicado ao Mercado completo traz os detalhes das atividades da semana e o racional das mudanças na metodologia.

🇧🇷 $OBTC3 | 🇺🇸 $ORNJY

_________
🇺🇸
A busy week for OranjeBTC's treasury.

Highlights:
• Retired a convertible liability with a face value of ~US$23M through the delivery of 200 BTC
• Eliminated the potential issuance of 6.97M additional shares
• Repurchased those same 200 BTC in the market for ~US$12.5M, preserving our Bitcoin exposure
• Added 1 BTC after Brazil's goal against Morocco as part of BitCopa

We also updated our reporting methodology to reflect our new capital structure and will soon make tools available for shareholders to estimate net BTC Yield using their own assumptions.

Result:
• 3,804 BTC in treasury
• 4.65% Gross BTC Yield this week
• 9.97% Gross BTC Yield in 2Q26
• 10.18% Gross BTC Yield in 2026

The full Market Notice includes additional details on this week's activities and the rationale behind the changes to our methodology.
🇧🇷 $OBTC3 | 🇺🇸 $ORNJY

[Sam Callahan @samcallah]

Looking forward to speaking at BFC next week in NYC.

[Stephan Livera @stephanlivera]

SLP740 Interviews at @freedomtechsum + @Btcprague Corporate Day 2026

(00:00) – @freddienew of @bitcoinhodlco
(08:47) - @UTXOClub of @FrostsnapTech
(21:27) - @tonklaus on Stable Channel Wallet
(26:41) - @Andre_Dragosch of @bitwise
(39:35) - @SamCallah of @oranjebtc

[OranjeBTC @ORANJEBTC]

Quanto custa completar o álbum da Copa hoje? E quanto custava na últimas Copas?

O álbum saltou de 444 figurinhas em 1994 para 980 em 2026 e, além disso, a inflação tornou essa brincadeira quase 7300% mais cara!

Mas em Bitcoin a história foi diferente. Para quem “colecionou” Bitcoin das últimas Copas pra cá, completar o álbum ficou bem mais barato.

A pesquisa considerou a evolução histórica dos preços dos pacotes de figurinhas no Brasil, o número de figurinhas necessárias para completar cada edição e o poder de compra da moeda fiduciária em contraste com o Bitcoin.

Diferente do cenário matemático perfeito (que pressupõe zero repetidas), o fator de 1,8x simula o comportamento de um colecionador ativo que troca figurinhas, mas que invariavelmente precisa lidar com algumas que ficarão “encalhadas” e adquirir pacotes extras na reta final da coleção.

Nos siga nas redes para acompanhar mais conteúdo sobre economia, Bitcoin e Copa! Faça parte da torcida OranjeBTC.

#BitCopa #BitGoool #OranjeBTC #OBTC3

[Natalie Brunell ⚡️ @natbrunell]

Bitcoin can be many things at once:
• A censorship-resistant monetary network
• A savings technology
• A corporate treasury asset
• A sovereign reserve asset
• A global settlement network
• A self-custody tool
• A hedge against monetary debasement

I don’t view these use cases as competing with one another. They reinforce each other.

The activist escaping capital controls, the family preserving purchasing power, the business holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet, and the nation-state diversifying reserves are all participating in the same truth-based system. They may have different motivations, but they strengthen the same network.

Transformative technologies spread through incentives, not ideology.

Most people did not adopt the internet because they cared about free speech or understood TCP/IP.

Most people did not adopt smartphones because they believed in distributed computing.

Most people did not adopt GPS because they were fascinated by satellites.

They adopted technologies that solved problems and improved their lives.

The same is true of Bitcoin.

Most corporations are not going to buy Bitcoin because they have read Hayek, Mises, or Rothbard. They are going to buy Bitcoin because they believe it is the best treasury asset available to them.

Markets don’t require ideological alignment to produce systemic change.

The internet didn’t transform the world because billions of people shared the same philosophy. It transformed the world because billions of people, pursuing their own interests, adopted a superior technology.

Bitcoin is likely to spread the same way.

Some people will adopt it for freedom.

Some for savings.

Some for treasury management.

Some for speculation.

Some because their company owns it.

Some because their government owns it.

The motivation is less important than the outcome.

Every time capital moves from a fiat-denominated store of value into Bitcoin, the network becomes deeper, more liquid, more secure, and more resilient.

A corporation buying Bitcoin for treasury purposes may not be explicitly trying to separate money and state. But when millions of individuals, companies, institutions, and eventually governments voluntarily choose Bitcoin over fiat assets, that is exactly what is happening.

That is not a distraction from separating money and state.
It is the mechanism by which it actually happens over the long-term. As capital moves from government-managed monetary systems into Bitcoin, control over money shifts from political institutions to an open network governed by transparent rules and voluntary participation.

[Sam Callahan @samcallah]

I’d say my salary depends on Bitcoin adoption more than anything else given how core it is to our business.

And I think there’s a lot more variety in the business models and strategies being deployed across the Bitcoin treasury space than many people realize. Some will succeed at increasing Bitcoin per share consistently over time, while others will fail.

Investors can choose to save in BTC or invest in the equity of a Bitcoin company.

They offer different risk and return profiles, and serve different roles in a portfolio today.

Collectively, they broaden access to Bitcoin and create more paths for capital to flow into BTC.

Appreciate the back and forth. There’s only respect here. Happy to chat any time to hear more of your perspective.

[Sam Callahan @samcallah]

Could you not apply that logic to the stock of all public Bitcoin companies?

Bitcoin will ultimately be adopted through the strength of its monetary properties and network effect, but it helps to have public companies building infrastructure, improving access, and educating the market to help accelerate and ease the transition to a Bitcoin standard.

My financial incentives are directly aligned with Bitcoin’s success.

Our company is building our entire business around Bitcoin.

We hold BTC as our primary reserve asset.

My salary is BTC denominated.

I’m incentivized to drive Bitcoin adoption in every way that I can, and I wouldn’t have it any other way.

[Sam Callahan @samcallah]

@parkeralewis I spend the vast majority of my time and energy educating people about Bitcoin.

The path you describe is one of many that will help drive us toward a Bitcoin Standard.

Different channels. Same direction. Same destination.

[Sam Callahan @samcallah]

I mean…I think I might have psychosis based on your definition lol

Because I do believe Bitcoin-backed securities will hasten hyperbitcoinization.

Mainly because of the traditional financial system’s architecture and how so much capital is gate kept today.

Also, people just have short term cash needs. Bitcoin dropped -20% last month. That’s just a reality. Because of its short term volatility, most everyone is forced to hold a short-term fiat bucket for bills or major life purchases (like if you’re planning to put a down payment on a home).

Personally, I’d rather hold products supported by Bitcoin in that short term bucket than t-bills or money market funds that help fund wasteful government spending.

I also believe Bitcoin payment infrastructure will hasten hyperbitcoinization.

I also believe better Bitcoin custody solutions will hasten hyperbitcoinization.

This is a big, complex system we function in, and Bitcoin is being infiltrated in many different parts of it, by different companies and entrepreneurs, all at once.

It’s all good for Bitcoin. It all drives Bitcoin adoption as a globally accepted money.

If you disagree with the last part, then I’d love to know why.

[Sam Callahan @samcallah]

@parkeralewis I’m not sure I understand what you mean by psychosis.

MSTR is structured to be more volatile than BTC. When someone buys it, they voluntarily give up BTC’s lack of counterparty risk, censorship resistance, and sovereignty for that extra volatility and potential outperformance.

[Portal do Bitcoin @portaldobitcoin]

ORANJEBTC IRÁ COMPRAR 1 BITCOIN PARA CADA GOL DO BRASIL NA COPA DO MUNDO

📰 Após acelerar as compras de Bitcoin, a OranjeBTC fará uma campanha para adquirir mais BTC com os gols do Brasil na Copa do Mundo

https://t.co/MJPzaNVaE7

[Sam Callahan @samcallah]

@DylanLeClair @Metaplanet 👏

[Sam Callahan @samcallah]

One goal. One bitcoin.

For every goal Brazil scores during the World Cup, OranjeBTC will buy 1 bitcoin.

Go Brazil! 🇧🇷⚽₿

[OranjeBTC @ORANJEBTC]

Nessa copa a OranjeBTC vai comprar 1 BTC para cada gol do Brasil. E se nós tivéssemos comprado 1 Bitcoin a cada gol do Brasil desde 2010?

Foram 36 gols nas últimas quatro Copas: 9 em 2010, 11 em 2014, 8 em 2018 e 8 em 2022.

Comprando 1 BTC por gol ao preço de cada época (considerando US$ 1 por BTC em 2010 e cerca de US$ 560, US$ 6.800 e US$ 17.000 nas copas seguintes), o investimento total seria de aproximadamente US$ 197 mil por 36 bitcoins.

Hoje, por volta de US$ 63 mil cada, esses mesmos 36 BTC valeriam cerca de US$ 2,3 milhões, aproximadamente 11,5 vezes mais, nada mal, não?

Nos siga nas redes sociais para participar da nossa torcida pelo Brasil nessa Copa.🇧🇷🧡

#OranjeBTC #OBTC3 #BitCopa #BitGoool

[Senator Cynthia Lummis @SenLummis]

A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is the most asymmetric bet the U.S. Treasury could make. The downside is manageable. The upside is generational.

[Sam Callahan @samcallah]

@mattkratter Or we could do both because they serve different purposes.

[Sam Callahan @samcallah]

@mattkratter Well I ran the numbers and I came to a very different conclusion, and I suggest all these working class people do the same before allocating.

[Sam Callahan @samcallah]

It’s a brand new instrument. Strategy launched at presumably what they felt was a fair yield for the risk and asset coverage, but the market is telling them it’s higher. And so Strategy is dynamically responding because they want to keep STRC close to par and drive demand for it.

I think this is about the market mispricing the underlying Bitcoin risk more than anything.

I suspect the yield will go higher in the short term, but over the long term the spread with SOFR should compress as the market better understands bitcoin, the instrument, and STRC builds a track record and more liquidity.