Sam

Likes A Bet ⚽🎯🐎

[Sam @SamGillyy]

@dan_jorg @AwfulTrader Fair point mate, could have worded it better. Nothing wrong with an evens bet mate, value’s value regardless of the odds. And yeah, bookies are a lot of things but they definitely aren’t stupid, so unsurprisingly it’s stake restricted unfortunately.

[Sam @SamGillyy]

World Cup Outright #2 🌍⚽️

Lionel Messi ‘To Score In The Group Stages’ is boosted from 1/9 (1.11) to 1/1 (2.00) on William Hill. While exchanges don’t currently offer this exact market, the underlying data suggests there could be strong value in the price.

Messi, although now 38 years old, continues to show why he’s one of the greatest players ever. He finished Joint 2nd Top Goalscorer in the 2025/26 MLS season scoring 12 goals in just 14 appearances.

Internationally, Messi finished 2nd Top Goalscorer at the Qatar 2022 World Cup with 7 goals, only behind Mbappé, while also winning Player of the Tournament as Argentina lifted the trophy.

Argentina’s 2026 World Cup group looks extremely favourable on paper consisting of:
Algeria (28th ranked)
Austria (24th ranked)
Jordan (63rd ranked)

I’m fully expecting Argentina to comfortably qualify from this group and naturally that should create multiple scoring opportunities for Messi, especially considering he still takes penalties and the majority of direct free kicks.

Messi has scored in the Group Stages in 5 of his last 6 major international tournaments for Argentina:
Copa America 2024:
0 Goals ❌
Qatar 2022 World Cup:
2 Goals ✅
Copa America 2021:
1 Goal ✅
Russia 2018 World Cup:
1 Goal ✅
Copa America 2016:
3 Goals ✅
Brazil 2014 World Cup:
4 Goals ✅

In fact, across Messi’s last 40 appearances for Argentina, he’s only gone three consecutive games without scoring ONCE. Considering Argentina have three group matches against opposition they’ll likely dominate possession against, it would honestly be a surprise if Messi failed to score at least once across the group stage.

Now, could this lose? Of course — no bet is guaranteed. But the key here is that you’re getting a price above the true line, which is exactly what you want long term.

I’m on. ✅

[Sam @SamGillyy]

-1U❌

[Sam @SamGillyy]

NBA Finals Superboost - Value?

This NBA Finals Superboost is boosted from 8/11 (1.72) to 6/4 (2.50). Unfortunately exchanges don’t currently offer this exact market, so we’ll have to rely predominantly on the underlying data to determine whether there’s value in the price.

Both Jalen Brunson & Victor Wembanyama are the talismen for the NY Knicks & SA Spurs respectively. Jalen Brunson looks the far more reliable leg of the two, landing 5+ points in the 1st Quarter in 13/14 playoff matches this postseason (92.8% Hit Rate):
7 points vs CLE Cavaliers ✅
5 points vs CLE Cavaliers ✅
2 points vs CLE Cavaliers ❌
10 points vs CLE Cavaliers ✅
11 points vs PHI 76ers ✅
5 points vs PHI 76ers ✅
9 points vs PHI 76ers ✅
14 points vs PHI 76ers ✅
9 points vs ATL Hawks ✅
8 points vs ATL Hawks ✅
7 points vs ATL Hawks ✅
11 points vs ATL Hawks ✅
5 points vs ATL Hawks ✅
19 points vs ATL Hawks ✅

Brunson has also landed this angle in all 3/3 H2H meetings against the Spurs this season:
11 points ✅
11 points ✅
9 points ✅

Victor Wembanyama is where the variance likely lies in this Superboost and probably where Bet365 are targeting. Wemby has landed 5+ points in the 1st Quarter in 10/16 playoff matches this postseason (62.5% Hit Rate):
5 points vs OKC Thunder ✅
11 points vs OKC Thunder ✅
2 points vs OKC Thunder ❌
11 points vs OKC Thunder ✅
7 points vs OKC Thunder ✅
3 points vs OKC Thunder ❌
6 points vs OKC Thunder ✅
4 points vs MIN Timberwolves ❌
18 points vs MIN Timberwolves ✅
4 Points vs MIN Timberwolves ❌*
9 points vs MIN timberwolves ✅
2 points vs MIN Timberwolves ❌
2 points vs POR Trailblazers ❌
7 points vs POR Trailblazers ✅
5 points vs POR Trailblazers ✅
12 points vs POR Trailblazers ✅

Wembanyama has also landed this angle in 2/3 H2Hs vs the Knicks this season:
6 points ✅
6 points ✅
2 points ❌

If you combine the raw playoff hit rates together you get an estimated probability around the 58-60% region, although naturally these markets are correlated with minutes, pace and game flow so it’s not quite as simple as multiplying percentages together.

The main concern would probably be Wemby starting slowly offensively. Brunson generally comes out ultra aggressive early in games and consistently dominates the Knicks usage in the opening quarters, whereas Wemby can sometimes defer early or pick up quieter scoring starts depending on defensive matchups.

Overall though, Brunson’s elite consistency combined with Wemby’s solid enough numbers and decent H2H data suggests the boost does look slightly worth backing, although I wouldn’t call it a “must back boost” because 1st quarter bets always carry more risk.

I’m on. ✅

[Sam @SamGillyy]

@DrWolfensteln Hi Wolf mate, Just posted my thoughts on the 365 NBA Superboost 👍

[Sam @SamGillyy]

Great start to June. Winner +1U ✅ (I was restricted to max stake £5 for this Tennis Superboost). 👍

[Sam @SamGillyy]

Sabalenka ‘To Win 2-0’ vs Naomi Osaka French Open Superboost - Value?

Sabalenka ‘To Win 2-0 (Set Betting)’ vs Naomi Osaka is trading around 81/100 (1.81) on exchanges as of writing which carries an implied probability of 55.25%, so the boosted odds of 1/1 (2.00) which carries an implied probability of 50% suggests there is some value in the price.

Aryna Sabalenka, the current World Number 1, has raced into the fourth round of Roland-Garros for the fourth consecutive year after defeating Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Elsa Jacquemot and Daria Kasatkina all in straight sets. The Belarusian has already established herself as one of the dominant players on tour with 4 Grand Slam singles titles and reached the Final of the French Open last year before narrowly missing out on the title to Coco Gauff. Sabalenka also holds an unbeaten 13-0 record in Grand Slam fourth-round matches since the 2022 US Open which is a remarkable statistic at this stage of major tournaments.

While Sabalenka’s clay preparation before Roland-Garros wasn’t perfect, suffering defeats to Hailey Baptiste in Madrid and Sorana Cirstea in Rome, her overall level this season still looks extremely high. She remains the reigning US Open, Indian Wells and Miami champion. Sabalenka also holds a perfect 3-0 record in Roland-Garros Round of 16 matches, reaching at least the Quarter Finals in each of the last three editions.

Naomi Osaka deserves credit for her clay-court improvements over the last 18 months. Osaka has won 15 matches on clay since the start of 2025, including a WTA 125 title at Saint-Malo and fourth-round finishes in Madrid and Rome. Interestingly, Osaka has won more matches on clay in the last six weeks than she managed across the opening three months of the season on hard courts.

However, despite Osaka being a former World Number 1 and 4-time Grand Slam champion herself, she’s probably not quite the player she once was at her peak and now sits ranked 16th in the world. Historically, clay has also remained Osaka’s weakest surface with only three clay-court quarter-finals in her entire career, all of which came 7 years ago now in 2019 (Stuggart, Madrid and Rome). Osaka additionally stands just 2-6 against reigning World Number 1 players, previously beating Simona Halep in Indian Wells in 2018 and Ash Barty in Beijing in 2019.

Sabalenka has won 4 out of the last 5 H2H meetings including both meetings this season, 2-1 sets win at the Madrid Open and 2-0 sets win at Indian Wells. Another important factor could be physical fitness. Osaka came through her longest match in over a year against Iva Jovic last round, eventually winning 7-6, 6-7, 6-4, while Sabalenka has comfortably won all three matches in straight sets conserving much more energy.

Now, could this lose? Of course — no bet is guaranteed. But the key here is that you’re getting a price above the true line, which is exactly what you want long term.

The main concern would naturally be Osaka’s serve. If Osaka serves at an elite level she can force tie-break situations against almost anyone on tour, which is always the danger when backing straight-set markets. However overall, Sabalenka’s recent dominance, superior clay level, physical advantage and straight-set H2H win this season make the even money price look solid.

I’m on. ✅

[Sam @SamGillyy]

NBA Finals Superboost - Value?

This NBA Finals Superboost is boosted from 8/11 (1.72) to 6/4 (2.50). Unfortunately exchanges don’t currently offer this exact market, so we’ll have to rely predominantly on the underlying data to determine whether there’s value in the price.

Both Jalen Brunson & Victor Wembanyama are the talismen for the NY Knicks & SA Spurs respectively. Jalen Brunson looks the far more reliable leg of the two, landing 5+ points in the 1st Quarter in 13/14 playoff matches this postseason (92.8% Hit Rate):
7 points vs CLE Cavaliers ✅
5 points vs CLE Cavaliers ✅
2 points vs CLE Cavaliers ❌
10 points vs CLE Cavaliers ✅
11 points vs PHI 76ers ✅
5 points vs PHI 76ers ✅
9 points vs PHI 76ers ✅
14 points vs PHI 76ers ✅
9 points vs ATL Hawks ✅
8 points vs ATL Hawks ✅
7 points vs ATL Hawks ✅
11 points vs ATL Hawks ✅
5 points vs ATL Hawks ✅
19 points vs ATL Hawks ✅

Brunson has also landed this angle in all 3/3 H2H meetings against the Spurs this season:
11 points ✅
11 points ✅
9 points ✅

Victor Wembanyama is where the variance likely lies in this Superboost and probably where Bet365 are targeting. Wemby has landed 5+ points in the 1st Quarter in 10/16 playoff matches this postseason (62.5% Hit Rate):
5 points vs OKC Thunder ✅
11 points vs OKC Thunder ✅
2 points vs OKC Thunder ❌
11 points vs OKC Thunder ✅
7 points vs OKC Thunder ✅
3 points vs OKC Thunder ❌
6 points vs OKC Thunder ✅
4 points vs MIN Timberwolves ❌
18 points vs MIN Timberwolves ✅
4 Points vs MIN Timberwolves ❌*
9 points vs MIN timberwolves ✅
2 points vs MIN Timberwolves ❌
2 points vs POR Trailblazers ❌
7 points vs POR Trailblazers ✅
5 points vs POR Trailblazers ✅
12 points vs POR Trailblazers ✅

Wembanyama has also landed this angle in 2/3 H2Hs vs the Knicks this season:
6 points ✅
6 points ✅
2 points ❌

If you combine the raw playoff hit rates together you get an estimated probability around the 58-60% region, although naturally these markets are correlated with minutes, pace and game flow so it’s not quite as simple as multiplying percentages together.

The main concern would probably be Wemby starting slowly offensively. Brunson generally comes out ultra aggressive early in games and consistently dominates the Knicks usage in the opening quarters, whereas Wemby can sometimes defer early or pick up quieter scoring starts depending on defensive matchups.

Overall though, Brunson’s elite consistency combined with Wemby’s solid enough numbers and decent H2H data suggests the boost does look slightly worth backing, although I wouldn’t call it a “must back boost” because 1st quarter bets always carry more risk.

I’m on. ✅

[Sam @SamGillyy]

@fplbowen20 Hi max mate, Yeah I saw Kudus was ruled out the squad, still think there’s enough there to find a result. Cheers mate 👍

[Sam @SamGillyy]

World Cup Outright Bet #1 🌎🏆

Firstly, I want to mention that these outright bets are obviously not stake restricted like the majority of Superboosts I focus on, so please remain sensible and responsible with staking e.g 0.5 points or 1 point per bet (I personally use £10 as 1 point, but use it relative to your own bankroll).

There will be plenty of good value offers throughout the World Cup, so sometimes protecting balance is just as important as making profits.

I think this ‘To Finish Bottom of the Group’ outright bet at 67/50 (2.34) looks a pretty solid angle here:

🇭🇹 Haiti — To Finish 4th in Group C
🇮🇶 Iraq — To Finish 4th in Group I
🇵🇦 Panama — To Finish 4th in Group L

Haiti are ranked 83rd in the world and this is only their 2nd World Cup appearance since 1974 where they finished bottom of a group containing Argentina, Italy and Poland. Unfortunately, their 2026 group doesn’t look much easier containing Morocco, Scotland and Brazil.

Morocco are ranked 8th in the world, reached the 2022 World Cup semi-finals and *won* the most recent AFCON. Brazil are ranked 6th and now managed by Carlo Ancelotti with world-class quality all over the pitch and Brazil has consistently reached at least the quarter-finals. The last time Brazil failed to make it that far was in 1966. While Scotland although only ranked 43rd in the world continue improving under Steve Clarke and picked up 13 points during qualification only losing once and where competitive during their 24/25 Nations League A campaign. It’s very hard to see Haiti avoiding bottom spot here.

Iraq are ranked 57th in the world and like Haiti this is only their 2nd World Cup appearance since 1986. The problem is they’ve landed in one of the toughest groups in the competition alongside Senegal, Norway and France.

France are currently ranked 1st in the world and alongside Spain are probably my joint favourites for the tournament. Norway who despite being ranked only 31st in the world look genuine dark horses after taking a maximum 24 points in qualification including wins over Italy, while Senegal ranked 14th in the world, remain one of Africa’s strongest sides after reaching the RO16 in Qatar and consistently competing deep in AFCON tournaments.

Panama are ranked 33rd in the world which genuinely surprised me while researching this. However, they’ve landed in a difficult group containing England, Croatia and Ghana.

England are ranked 4th in the world and under Tuchel should comfortably qualify from this group, while Croatia who are ranked 11th in the world, possess serious tournament pedigree, having reached the semi-finals in both 2018 and 2022. Ghana are probably the weakest side of the three opponents but still possess genuine quality through players like Semenyo, Partey and potentially Kudus. Worth mentioning, England beat Panama 6-1 at the 2018 World Cup.

Overall, all three selections look to have landed in extremely difficult groups with very limited margin for error. International football can obviously be unpredictable, but on paper this looks a fairly strong outright angle at 67/50 (2.34).

I’m on. ✅

[Sam @SamGillyy]

Hi mate, doesn’t look a bad bet but personally I’m not a fan of bigger multi leg accas. Generally, there’s always at least one ‘minor’ team that outperforms expectations at these World Cups so placing an acca for the majority of these teams to finish bottom introduces too much variance for me 👍

[Sam @SamGillyy]

Fair enough mate, everyone’s got different views on outrights. Personally I think when you’re getting over evens on three teams that all look weakest in their groups on paper, there’s enough value there to justify it. Doesn’t mean it’ll win of course, and I’ve only staked 1pt on it so it won’t determine the month whatever happens. But I think it’s got a decent chance of landing 👍

[Sam @SamGillyy]

Hi Sobrals mate, those were the two other groups I was looking at for this outright bet.

For me, Qatar will be the biggest issue as I don’t have enormous faith in Canada/Bosnia - although still should be a level above and similar for Algeria I find it more difficult to assess their true level although should have more quality than Jordan agreed.

Also, from past experiences from what I’ve found adding more than 2 or 3 legs introduces more variance. Both Qatar and Jordan should finish bottom of their group but i’m probably happy to leave my bet as it is. 👍

[Sam @SamGillyy]

@KorbynChapman__ Hi Korbyn mate, Yeah tbf it’s not exactly a glamorous treble 😂 but with outright/group markets it’s more about probability than chasing massive odds. All three just look to have landed in brutal groups on paper. Should have a decent shot of more than doubling your money 👍

[Sam @SamGillyy]

Sabalenka ‘To Win 2-0’ vs Naomi Osaka French Open Superboost - Value?

Sabalenka ‘To Win 2-0 (Set Betting)’ vs Naomi Osaka is trading around 81/100 (1.81) on exchanges as of writing which carries an implied probability of 55.25%, so the boosted odds of 1/1 (2.00) which carries an implied probability of 50% suggests there is some value in the price.

Aryna Sabalenka, the current World Number 1, has raced into the fourth round of Roland-Garros for the fourth consecutive year after defeating Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Elsa Jacquemot and Daria Kasatkina all in straight sets. The Belarusian has already established herself as one of the dominant players on tour with 4 Grand Slam singles titles and reached the Final of the French Open last year before narrowly missing out on the title to Coco Gauff. Sabalenka also holds an unbeaten 13-0 record in Grand Slam fourth-round matches since the 2022 US Open which is a remarkable statistic at this stage of major tournaments.

While Sabalenka’s clay preparation before Roland-Garros wasn’t perfect, suffering defeats to Hailey Baptiste in Madrid and Sorana Cirstea in Rome, her overall level this season still looks extremely high. She remains the reigning US Open, Indian Wells and Miami champion. Sabalenka also holds a perfect 3-0 record in Roland-Garros Round of 16 matches, reaching at least the Quarter Finals in each of the last three editions.

Naomi Osaka deserves credit for her clay-court improvements over the last 18 months. Osaka has won 15 matches on clay since the start of 2025, including a WTA 125 title at Saint-Malo and fourth-round finishes in Madrid and Rome. Interestingly, Osaka has won more matches on clay in the last six weeks than she managed across the opening three months of the season on hard courts.

However, despite Osaka being a former World Number 1 and 4-time Grand Slam champion herself, she’s probably not quite the player she once was at her peak and now sits ranked 16th in the world. Historically, clay has also remained Osaka’s weakest surface with only three clay-court quarter-finals in her entire career, all of which came 7 years ago now in 2019 (Stuggart, Madrid and Rome). Osaka additionally stands just 2-6 against reigning World Number 1 players, previously beating Simona Halep in Indian Wells in 2018 and Ash Barty in Beijing in 2019.

Sabalenka has won 4 out of the last 5 H2H meetings including both meetings this season, 2-1 sets win at the Madrid Open and 2-0 sets win at Indian Wells. Another important factor could be physical fitness. Osaka came through her longest match in over a year against Iva Jovic last round, eventually winning 7-6, 6-7, 6-4, while Sabalenka has comfortably won all three matches in straight sets conserving much more energy.

Now, could this lose? Of course — no bet is guaranteed. But the key here is that you’re getting a price above the true line, which is exactly what you want long term.

The main concern would naturally be Osaka’s serve. If Osaka serves at an elite level she can force tie-break situations against almost anyone on tour, which is always the danger when backing straight-set markets. However overall, Sabalenka’s recent dominance, superior clay level, physical advantage and straight-set H2H win this season make the even money price look solid.

I’m on. ✅

[Sam @SamGillyy]

Hi Max mate, yeah like I said in the write up I think logically Ghana could be the team to let us down here. I’m just hoping Ghana have got enough attacking quality through players like Semenyo & Kudus to cover their defensive weaknesses and get a result against Panama because I can’t see Panama getting too much from Croatia or England. Also, looking at the other groups there aren’t too many which you could say have a definitively weakest team. Let’s see what happens 👍

[Sam @SamGillyy]

Quick update 📊

Not much going on football wise until the World Cup starts, so I’m expecting the first part of June to be fairly quiet football content wise. I’m sure the bookies will still be boosting plenty of international friendlies, but personally I’ll probably be happy to leave most of them alone with not much really riding on those games apart from fitness and preparation.

That said, I’ll probably post a few World Cup outright bets/research pieces over the next couple of days while I go through the groups and markets properly if anyone is interested in them just let me know.

There’s also no major racing festivals until Royal Ascot (16th-20th June). However, there’s still a few decent events to keep an eye on though with the World Cup of Darts (11th-14th June), US Open Golf (18th-21st June) and the NBA Finals running through June as well, so there should still be some good boosts and angles around.

Second half of June should be absolutely packed though with World Cup boosts, Royal Ascot, outrights and loads more value offers.👍

[Sam @SamGillyy]

📊 Review of May’s Bets 📊

A really solid month overall despite a few bumps along the way, finishing May at:

+16.3 Units Profit 📈

A lot of Superboosts landed throughout the month alongside some solid Bet Builders and horse props. Some of the standout winners this month:

⭐ Leeds vs Burnley Superboost (+2U)
⭐ Richarlison & DCL 1+ SOT (+2U)
⭐ Premier League Darts Superboost (+2U)
⭐ See The Fire To Win (+1.75U)
⭐ Legacy Link To Win (+1.625U)
⭐ Europa League Final Bet Builder (+1.575U)

Monthly breakdown:
✅ Wins: 28
❌ Losses: 15
♻️ Push/Refunds: 4

A couple frustrating near misses as always especially the PGA championship bet, but overall very happy with how the month played out. Appreciate all the support recently as well 🤝

Onto June. 👊