Sam Smith

Data Scientist w/ a Master’s Degree from MIT providing NFL, MLB and NBA Betting Analysis. Writer for @bettingpros. DM with questions/comments/inquiries.

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

@BohBoy98 Ended up being a sweat but we’ll take it! Great way to start the day.

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Model plays for the first eight games:

Big:
Duquesne +9.5 and +360
S Carolina +1.5 and -105

Medium:
Akron +12.5 and +550
Morehead +11.5 and +490

Small:
Nevada -1.5 and -115
UNC -24.5
Miss St +1.5 and +100

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Late game plays:

BIG
Colorado St +2.5 and +130
McNeese +6.5 and +235
Samford +7.5 and +255

Medium
Tennessee -21.5
Texas Tech -4.5
Drake -1.5 and -115

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

I do bet every one! The model is particularly good at comparing teams across different conferences to see who may be over/underrated, so I wait until March Madness to start using it outside of placing tournament futures plays. Last year model was up significantly on futures plays, and had a positive record with bets on games as well.

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Still early, but my NCAAM Power Ratings model that had FAU as a Final Four-caliber team before anyone else last year has some early March Madness picks 👀

Bets I placed today based on these ratings:

New Mexico Final 4 +1800 (FD)
Utah State Final 4 +3800 (FD)
South Carolina Final 4 +3500 (FD)
Indiana St Final 4 +8500 (FD)
Wisconsin Nat’l Champs +3500 (DK)

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Took part in an early two-round NFL Mock Draft with other writers at @FantasyProsNFL - let me know what you think of my picks for the Colts, Broncos and Jaguars!

https://t.co/8IbcTKZLtV

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

@CoachKingsbury @MatthewBerryTMR @FantasyPros Ah man that’s tough…I think depending on how your matchup has gone so far, I’d say Chandler for high floor but Kmet if you need the upside to make a comeback. Not super concerned w stacking Vikings in a good matchup if those are your top guys!

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Model distributions for DBacks/Dodgers:

No real edge on either side here, model price of Dodgers -145 is pretty much right in line with what’s offered.

Slight lean toward under 8 for the game, and DBacks team total U3.5. Have small positions on both.

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Model distributions for Braves and Phillies:

I give Philly a slight edge in this one. They were able to pick up a huge win last game, and get Zack Wheeler on the mound against Max Fried. Fair price is Phillies -120, can get +130 right now.

Also liking Fried O4.5 K’s (-120).

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Fun play here that’s worth a sprinkle. Model has each of these legs as positive-EV, and if the Phillies offense shows up these guys should be the main beneficiaries.

Arraez 2+ hits sneaks in because it’s offered at +155 and model has fair value at +115.

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Marlins @ Phillies Model Distribution:

Phillies ML was favorite model play yesterday, and it’s the favorite model play today. Fair values Phillies -205, I love them at -155 being offered.

Also taking Phillies Team Total O4.5 (+115). Model has 54% chance of team total 5+ runs

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Diamondbacks @ Brewers Model Distribution:

Model gives a slight edge to DBacks here - fair value at DBacks -110, have small position on them +115.

Also liking Freddy Peralta O5.5 K’s (-160) if you’re looking for a prop in this one.

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Blue Jays @ Twins Model Distributions:

Should be a tight game with a slight edge to the Twins. Model has the fair price at Twins -130, so no +EV on either ML side.

One prop to play - Jose Berrios O4.5 K’s (-160). Model has him projected for 6.6 K’s.

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Rangers @ Rays Game 2 Model Distributions:

Model is pretty much dead on w books on this one. I have fair price at Rays -140, so no value on either ML side.

Taking a small position on Under 8 total runs (-115). Game went under 8 runs in 61% of simulations.

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Marlins @ Phillies Score Distributions:

Model has Phillies w a hefty advantage. Should get contributions from entire lineup, and Luzardo could struggle. Zack Wheeler matches up well w Marlins lineup.

Fair price Phillies -265. My biggest position of the day.

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Diamondbacks @ Brewers Score Distributions:

DBacks have a solid offense, but very good chance that Corbin Burnes can hold them in check.

Brandon Pfaadt got things together late in the season, but DBacks clearly overmatched from a pitching perspective.

Fair price Brewers -190

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Simulated distribution of outcomes: Blue Jays @ Twins

This should be a tight, low-scoring game. Gausman is a worse matchup for Twins than Lopez is for Blue Jays. Model gives Jays slight edge in mode outcome, and in probability of offensive explosion.

Fair price TOR -120

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Simulated distribution of outcomes: Rangers vs. Rays

Model expects TEX to struggle against Glasnow. Rangers score 2 or fewer runs in >50% of simulated games.

Rays should find success against Jordan Montgomery. Serious potential for an offensive explosion.

Fair value Rays -230

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Model plays for Blue Jays @ Twins:

Blue Jays +110 1u
Kevin Gausman O6.5 K’s (-150) 1u
Pablo Lopez O6.5 K’s (+120) .75u

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

First day of the MLB Playoffs! Here are my model plays for Rangers @ Rays:

Rays -160 1u
Tyler Glasnow O7.5 K’s (+105) .75u
Yandy Diaz HR (+480) .2u