Sam Tibbitts

grandpapa, globetrotter, wine lover, anything outdoors, optimist. Matthew 7:1

[Sam Tibbitts @SamTibbitts]

@sfchronicle I was an 8 year reader of the S.F. Chronicle digital newspaper, I canceled after a dispute over their billing and not letting me know of a renewal per Cal law. When I reached out to customer service, I was given a lot of canned responses and not listened too. Very disappointing

[Sam Tibbitts @SamTibbitts]

@sfchronicle I was an 8 year reader of the S.F. Chronicle digital newspaper, I canceled after a dispute over their billing and not letting me know of a renewal per Cal law. When I reached out to customer service, I was given a lot of canned responses and not listened too. Very disappointing..

[Michael Dell 🇺🇸 @MichaelDell]

Focus on what you can control.

Build something. Anything.

A product. Yourself. A family. Your community. A team. Relationships.

Or help someone else build theirs.

Don’t complain. Don’t play the victim.

Ever.

What are you building?

#PlayNiceButWin

[Sam Tibbitts @SamTibbitts]

@sfchronicle I was an 8 year reader of the S.F. Chronicle digital newspaper, I canceled after a dispute over their billing and not letting me know of a renewal per Cal law. When I reached out to customer service, I was given a lot of canned responses and not listened too. Very disappointing

[Fernando Mendoza @fernandomendoza]

Let’s get to work Raider Nation! 🏴‍☠️

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

$NOW lowering margin guidance will be an important test. Those that think AI disintermediating software is an over-done theme has helped push $IGV (software ETF) from -37% to a 52 wk low to +19% vs S&P +5% in the past 8 trading days. Will this mark a near-term top?

Watching how the bigger names like $ORCL and $MSFT as well as the important security names like $CRWD and $PANW handle the ServicNow results will be an important tell.

I used to have a yellow sticky taped to my monitor that said “Do not fight the hard battles.” Even investors that were right in 1999 about $AMZN being the ultimate winner in e-commerce with revenues nearly doubling from $1.6B to $3.1B by 2001 had to suffer through the 95% stock decline from its peak in late 1999 to trough in 2001. It is a solid point that tech valuations were higher then but to me the time it took to reach the ultimate bottom is equally important.

This is not to discount the breath-taking rallies along the way. The S&P rallied seven times with an average of 14% each occurring over roughly two months while losing 49% over 2.5 years during the bursting of the internet bubble. During each one of those, it looked like THE bottom to some investors.

However my view is with agentic AI really coming to the forefront earlier this year as shown by the formalization of OpenClaw in late January, the software landscape has not had enough time to reshape in less than six months. ServiceNow among others aim to be the “control tower” connecting cloud infrastructure, LLMs, core business data and applications. However, despite their broader utility, they may still lose market value alongside more niche, single-purpose software companies during a sell-off. The CFO of a corporation will have to find a way to save costs from their expanded coding budget for Anthropic and OpenAI. Companies will not be able to sell that they are benefiting from AI versus being run over by it without having the numbers to prove it.

Tactically buying at oversold levels and leaving before the reality of companies having to report is typically my strategy during these times of big technological shifts, especially following a big market rally. The lackluster stock reaction of important early reporting tech companies like $TSM, $ASML and $NFLX despite the strength in the overall market was a reminder of that.

Coming up, five of the Magnificent 7 are set to report next week with $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT on Wednesday (the four big hyper-scalers have never been on the same day before) and $AAPL the day after. The overall market is also at overbought levels technically.

Some combination of the following reasons could lead to guidance or some metrics like margins being less than hoped for in some cases: 1) close rates on big deals were impacted at the end of Q1 by the Iran war, 2) the surge in semiconductor prices could not be fully passed through to end customers and will impact margins going forward, 3) rising oil prices are impacting our shipping costs, 4) falling consumer confidence due to the geopolitical uncertainty is impacting advertising budgets, and 5) demand has been pulled forward by customers looking to get in front of price increases and will therefore result in less growth in 2H:26.

As Warren Buffett says, “the market has to keep pitching but you do not have to swing.” I feel like Ohtani is now on the mound.

[Nick shirley @nickshirleyy]

@CAgovernor @JenSiebelNewsom Will you and the rest of your staff be taking this as well?

[Ashley Zavala @ZavalaA]

NEW:
California taxpayers are paying for Kamala Harris' security detail for her international book tour.

Dozens of CHP officers are assigned to it, sources tell me. State officials aren't saying much, her campaign isn't answering questions.

Don't taxpayers deserve to know?

[Damani Felder @TheDamaniFelder]

Charlie Kirk was NOT a racist. I have proof and I am proof.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

@MosesKahana @EricLDaugh @alexbruesewitz @robbystarbuck I am going to create a $1,000,000 ‘endowment’ for Charlie’s family. I will invest $1m for the family for free and will give them 5% of the principal each year so they have a growing stream of income for the future with the ability to tap the endowment for emergencies.

[JD Vance @JDVance]

A while ago, probably in 2017, I appeared on Tucker Carlson's Fox show to talk about God knows what. Afterwards a name I barely knew sent me a DM on twitter and told me I did a great job. It was Charlie Kirk, and that moment of kindness began a friendship that lasted until today.

Charlie was fascinated by ideas and always willing to learn and change his mind. Like me, he was skeptical of Donald Trump in 2016. Like me, he came to see President Trump as the only figure capable of moving American politics away from the globalism that had dominated for our entire lives. When others were right, he learned from them. When he was right--as he usually was--he was generous. With Charlie, the attitude was never, "I told you so." But: "welcome."

Charlie was one of the first people I called when I thought about running for senate in early 2021. I was interested but skeptical there was a pathway. We talked through everything, from the strategy to the fundraising to the grassroots of the movement he knew so well. He introduced me to some of the people who would run my campaign and also to Donald Trump Jr. "Like his dad, he's misunderstood. He's extremely smart, and very much on our wavelength." Don took a call from me because Charlie asked him too.

Long before I ever committed (even in my mind) to running, Charlie had me speak to his donors at a TPUSA event. He walked me around the room and introduced me. He gave me honest feedback on my remarks. He had no reason to do this, no expectation that I'd go anywhere. I was polling, at that point, well below 5 percent. He did it because we were friends, and because he was a good man.

When I became the VP nominee--something Charlie advocated for both in public and private--Charlie was there for me. I was so glad to be part of the president's team, but candidly surprised by the effect it had on our family. Our kids, especially our oldest, struggled with the attention and the constant presence of the protective detail. I felt this acute sense of guilt, that I had conscripted my kids into this life without getting their permission. And Charlie was constantly calling and texting, checking on our family and offering guidance and prayers. Some of our most successful events were organized not by the campaign, but by TPUSA. He wasn't just a thinker, he was a doer, turning big ideas into bigger events with thousands of activists. And after every event, he would give me a big hug, tell me he was praying for me, and ask me what he could do. "You focus on Wisconsin," he'd tell me. "Arizona is in the bag." And it was.

Charlie genuinely believed in and loved Jesus Christ. He had a profound faith. We used to argue about Catholicism and Protestantism and who was right about minor doctrinal questions. Because he loved God, he wanted to understand him.

Someone else pointed out that Charlie died doing what he loved: discussing ideas. He would go into these hostile crowds and answer their questions. If it was a friendly crowd, and a progressive asked a question to jeers from the audience, he'd encourage his fans to calm down and let everyone speak. He exemplified a foundational virtue of our Republic: the willingness to speak openly and debate ideas.

Charlie had an uncanny ability to know when to push the envelope and when to be more conventional. I've seen people attack him for years for being wrong on this or that issue publicly, never realizing that privately he was working to broaden the scope of acceptable debate.

He was a great family man. I was talking to President Trump in the Oval Office today, and he said, "I know he was a very good friend of yours." I nodded silently, and President Trump observed that Charlie really loved his family. The president was right. Charlie was so proud of Erika and the two kids. He was so happy to be a father. And he felt such gratitude for having found a woman of God with whom he could build a family.

Charlie Kirk was a true friend. The kind of guy you could say something to and know it would always stay with him. I am on more than a few group chats with Charlie and people he introduced me to over the years. We celebrate weddings and babies, bust each other's chops, and mourn the loss of loved ones. We talk about politics and policy and sports and life. These group chats include people at the very highest level of our government. They trusted him, loved him, and knew he'd always have their backs. And because he was a true friend ,you could instinctively trust the people Charlie introduced you to. So much of the success we've had in this administration traces directly to Charlie's ability to organize and convene. He didn't just help us win in 2024, he helped us staff the entire government.

I was in a meeting in the West Wing when those group chats started lighting up with people telling Charlie they were praying for him. And that's how I learned the news that my friend had been shot. I prayed a lot over the next hour, as first good news and then bad trickled in.

God didn't answer those prayers, and that's OK. He had other plans. And now that Charlie is in heaven, I'll ask him to talk to big man directly on behalf of his family, his friends, and the country he loved so dearly.

You ran a good race, my friend.

We've got it from here.

[Sam Tibbitts @SamTibbitts]

@JoeSquawk the mornings are not the same without you! I find myself watching @MariaBartiromo more when you’re gone! #morningbusinesstv #investing

[COACH PRIME @DeionSanders]

Lord I thank you for it all. 🙏🏾

[Sam Tibbitts @SamTibbitts]

@RobertKennedyJr can you make it a priority to have our country catch up to Europe when it comes to awareness about gluten. My family is celiac and dining out is a challenge. When we’re in Europe, we have so many more options. Italy is light years ahead of us. #celiac #glutenfree

[Sam Tibbitts @SamTibbitts]

@CAgovernor @GavinNewsom traveling on I-5 now and this freeway is a mess - embarrassing for our state! Traveled Spain last year and their freeways are in great condition! #help #California

[Sam Tibbitts @SamTibbitts]

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 5 star review from Sam https://t.co/M3TJ140dYn #Unbound Merino
The best clothing for traveling 🧳 ✈️ 😎

[Sam Tibbitts @SamTibbitts]

Do you remember when you joined X? I do! #MyXAnniversary

[Steve Harvey @IAmSteveHarvey]

Think about forgiveness like this… 💯

[UtterlyInteresting @UtterlyInterest]

Happy birthday Elvis Costello! He and the Attractions were on SNL in 1977–only a few lines into “Less than Zero,” the band plays their unapproved song “Radio, Radio” which criticizes censorship in corporate media. The group was banned from SNL for 12 years