Sam Tims

Lead analyst at @jrf_uk researching and tweeting on social security, tax, the cost of living and other things too. Previously @NEF @policy_practice

[Katie Schmuecker @KatieSchmuecker]

📢Your essential guide to poverty in the UK is out!

When Labour came to power, very deep poverty & child poverty were at record levels. Some vital changes have been made- like scrapping the two child limit- but that needs to be the beginning not the end of their ambition.

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

Lots more in the data tables here: https://t.co/yfbnR9motl

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP

This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing cuts

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

While spending on disability benefits will make up more of this spend (from 1.1% of GDP in 24/25 to 1.4% in 29/30), applications for PIP have started to fall and the OBR expect them to land around halfway back toward pre-pandemic levels

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

The latest Personal Independence Payment data shows a further slowing of applications, with average claims down 7% in the year to October

The largest reduction in new claims is from over 45s

The OBR expects monthly applications to fall to around 60,000 during the parliament

[Tim Leunig @timleunig]

Like all too many children in the UK today, I grew up poor. I am no longer poor, and I am delighted to pay higher taxes to reduce - or ideally eliminate - child poverty. 1/3

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

Scrapping the two-child limit will significantly reduce child poverty over the parliament and improve the living standards outlook for low-income families

But more is needed to improve incomes, through higher earnings, lower housing costs, and a stronger social security system

[Alfie Stirling @alfie_stirling]

But, interventions at the #Budget2025 have mitigated the fall for lower income families, helping to reverse some of the rising inequality seen during the first half of the decade.

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

Brilliant to see that the two-child limit will be scrapped, lifting 450,000 children out of poverty in 2029/30

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

The full response to the committee is here: https://t.co/YjcoksYm8M

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

Good to see DWP accepting much of the @CommonsWorkPen recommendations for improving jobcentres

Moving from a one-size fits all to a tailored approach will improve the relationship people have with their work coach, help them find better jobs, and improve their economic security

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

These measures would give social security a much needed boost, support the economy, and go a long way in protecting children's living standards

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

In new @jrf_uk analysis with @KatieSchmuecker we show how cost-effective improvements to social security can quickly improve the living standards outlook for families

Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

Improvements of this scale are urgently needed.

Families with children saw unprecedented reductions in their income last parliament and could do so again given the poor economic outlook

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

For the full write-up of the analysis from @chrisbelfield, @StatsPeter, and myself see the link below

https://t.co/zj9O70uBpK

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

Analysis from @jrf_uk this week suggests this could be the worst parliament for living standards since detailed records began

This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials

[Sam Tims @Sam_Tims]

But these projections can also be downgraded

As my colleague @chrisbelfield points out, lower productivity growth will make us poorer

https://t.co/57RlAeDaNI

[Chris Belfield @chrisbelfield]

Last week, the @FT speculated on whether the OBR would downgrade its productivity forecast and what this would mean for the how the Chancellor would meet her fiscal rules.

But this debate misses the most important impact.

Lower productivity growth will make households poorer.