Sam Freedman

Writes the UK's most popular politics Substack (

New book - "Failed State" - now out

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

New post:

Over the next year there a series of European elections where the radical right could gain more power than ever.

How will this play out? We have 30 years of evidence that tells us they will struggle. Obituries for liberalism are premature.

https://t.co/Q9d4ZXp3dj

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

@residentadviser But even if it just engaged activists (and I think it's wider than that - a lot ex-Kent Tories etc...) that's a big problen for them.

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

@residentadviser You just cannot believe that Trump's approval collapse has nothing to do with economics given his numbers on inflation and cost of living.

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

@residentadviser There are lots of libertarian big cuts types, not least Farage, Jenrick and Tice, who are basically Thatcherites. It is a problem for them.

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

@residentadviser The problem is how you assess left-right economically. A lot of Reform supporters say they want welfare cut for instance, they just don't mean their welfare. Again see what's happening to Trump. You can't argue that's not down to economics. He's cut immigration.

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

A problem all radical right parties tend to have. Reform included.

[Peter Blahblahblahblah @RonSerious]

There is a sociological component to this, which is MLP's split electorate between the angry post industrial workers of the North and the rich retirees of the South. Every financial pledge she makes is designed to simultaneously appeal to 2 irreconciable groups.

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

This is just one of the problems Le Pen would have in power...

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

Marine Le Pen is favourite to win the French presidency, more so after last week's violence.

Using the history of radical right victories in Europe I assessed what her government would look like and what barriers would it run into.

https://t.co/WoiYKQJsYf

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

@djp3007 Her proposals would make it a lot worse.

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

Marine Le Pen is favourite to win the French presidency, more so after last week's violence.

Using the history of radical right victories in Europe I assessed what her government would look like and what barriers would it run into.

https://t.co/WoiYKQJsYf

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

@eichel_robert Discussed in the post

[Richard Truscott @rtruscott]

Interesting analysis by @Samfr of the extra difficulties Far Right parties across Europe have in a) actually getting into power, b) governing constitutionally, c) governing without disappointing their supporters. But this still damages democracy & society! https://t.co/ARLQdq4b6q

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

New post:

Over the next year there a series of European elections where the radical right could gain more power than ever.

How will this play out? We have 30 years of evidence that tells us they will struggle. Obituries for liberalism are premature.

https://t.co/Q9d4ZXp3dj

[Petri Mäkelä @pmakela1]

Radical right always fail after getting power, if they maintain the democratic institutions. They simply can't deliver what they promise

The best way to ensure that a right wing doesn't only win elections, but gets a mandate to do the radical changes is to offer it an enemy 1/2

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

None of which is to say we shouldn't be worried. We really should. But the way the problems play out will be more protracted and complex than "the death of liberalism".

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

New post:

Over the next year there a series of European elections where the radical right could gain more power than ever.

How will this play out? We have 30 years of evidence that tells us they will struggle. Obituries for liberalism are premature.

https://t.co/Q9d4ZXp3dj

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

The post looks at how the constraints of power have hemmed in radical right governments in Europe in the past.

And sketches out scenarios about how a Le Pen government in France and a Vox/PP government in Spain would get into trouble quickly.

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

To give an indication of the problem here's a chart of 12 government agencies around the world and numbers of applications / appeals / complaints etc...

The dotted grey line is when ChatGPT was invented.

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

To give an indication of the problem here's a chart of 12 government agencies around the world and numbers of applications / appeals / complaints etc...

The dotted grey line is when ChatGPT was invented.

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

On the substack this week...

I looked at how states are being increasingly overwhelmed with AI written slop. It's gumming up every process. Britain is particularly vulnerable.

How bad has it got and what can we do about it?

https://t.co/0mBKuqm1HC

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

@LawDavF After Tory conference I wrote about their new strategy to target their more traditional voters, and the problems with it.

https://t.co/xFRvoN0kLE

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

On the substack this week...

I looked at how states are being increasingly overwhelmed with AI written slop. It's gumming up every process. Britain is particularly vulnerable.

How bad has it got and what can we do about it?

https://t.co/0mBKuqm1HC

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

@LawDavF And @LawDavF wrote about how Trump has created chaos in the Middle East.

The Saudis have been left extremely vulnerable to the Houthis and are in real trouble.

https://t.co/4h8oDrLTnL