Never envy rich but learn, admire and take inspiration from their life . 99% of them got there because of hard work, persistence, passion and sheer determination.
"I read everything: annual reports, l0K's, 10Qt's, biographies, histories, five newspapers a day. On airplanes I read the instructions on the backs of the seats. Reading is key. Reading has made me rich over time."
- Buffett
My biggest nightmare as a broker is what’s happening in the Korean markets right now. The source of my nightmare is the way our MTF book has been growing along with the industry as a whole. In terms of pure risk, MTF is by far the biggest risk we have taken since we started in 2010.
More specifically, the risk lies in our ₹9,000-crore book: at least half of it is in non-F&O stocks, which can hit lower circuits every day without offering an exit.
The problem with Korea is the one-way rally. When markets go up so sharply, leverage builds up because collateral values increase, leading to more borrowing and so on. The second layer of risk comes from the derivatives complex and leveraged ETFs, which further exacerbate moves on both the upside and downside.
When the markets fall, things get really ugly. The first leg of selling tends to be small, but as collateral and margin values drop, margin calls increase, leading to forced selling. Forced unwinding from leveraged ETFs makes this worse, and this downside move becomes a self-reinforcing loop until things stabilize.
Btw, MTF became popular only in the last 3–4 years, and we really haven’t seen a sharp market crash similar to the KOSPI since COVID. Even though MTF as a percentage of market cap is small, if the Indian markets were to fall sharply, it would cause severe sell-offs across many small- and mid-cap stocks. Brokers today typically provide MTF on ~1,500 stocks. 😬
Luckily, thanks to SEBI, we've avoided the worst excesses that typically arise from unchecked leverage.
Btw, my colleague @prayagverma maintains a site with really good market stats, including MTF, here: https://t.co/uRJrvOvbHK
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If you look at listed brokers, you’d probably think we are in a bull market, but the data shows something else. In fact, there are a lot of conflicting signals. Cash market turnover is still below where it peaked in late 2024. Net direct equity inflows, for example, are negative for the first time since FY19.
So where is there so much enthusiasm around capital markets related investment themes?
Could be the strong equity mutual fund flows and SIP flows. Gross SIP flows are at a record ~32,000 crores. But the major brokers offer direct mutual funds, so they don’t make anything, including us.
Speculative activity has held up despite everything. The MTF book across the industry has grown significantly. Our own book has grown from 0 to ~7000 crores in about 1.5 years.
Brokerage income as a ratio of client float for most listed brokers is around 40% or above. With us, it’s sub 9%. That means clients are trading far more with these platforms relative to the funds they hold there. Could be all triggers and nudges to trade?
Our own philosophy has always been to not push or induce customers to trade. In trading, for most people, fewer trades are always better. That means leaving a lot of revenue on the table. Whether that’s the right call, time will tell.
So is it a bull market? The answer is it depends on where you are looking.
🚨 Block your calendar 🚨
We’re bringing back Investing Eleven Conclave 2.0
📅 May 17 | 10:00 AM – 7:00 PM
A full-day online summit with 11 serious market practitioners:
Speakers 👇
Kumar Saurabh @suru27
Ishmohit Arora @ishmohit1
Gaurav Agarwal @9onecapital
Amitabh Vatsya @amitabhvatsya
Shubham Sethi (Logical Investor) @Shubham_TLI
Sekhar (Learning Eleven) @LearningEleven
Kaustubh Roplekar @Kaustubh11dec
Digant Haria @DigantHaria
Dhruvesh Sanghvi @prosperotree
Akshay Jogani @kshayjogani
Dhruv Rawani @dhruvrrawani
No fluff. No theory.
Only high-conviction ideas, real frameworks, and how they’re thinking about markets right now.
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Select state Capex for 3-years (FY24-26RE) in INR Billion
State Capex
Uttar Pradesh 4101
Maharashtra 2898
Gujarat 2169
Karnataka 1871
Tamil Nadu 1649
Bihar 1382
Andhra Pradesh 847
West Bengal 789
Source : MOSL
HIP,TIP and SIP philosophy:-
1. Buy a HIP(health Insurance plan)
2. Check if u need a TIP(Term Insurance Plan)
3. Maintain an emergency corpus
4. Do an asset allocation
5. Start a SIP(Systematic Investment Plan)
Simple yet powerful
The takeaway is simple: long term compounding in equities works. Staying invested through volatility has been far more rewarding than trying to time the market.
From 2000 to today, India’s total market cap has grown from ~$225 billion to ~$4.9 Trillion
(460L Crore).
Nearly a 22x increase over 26 years.
That translates to a steady ~12.6% CAGR, despite multiple crises and market cycles.
Because so many people wanted to know the data for the luckiest investor, here it is.
I always like to take the worst case rather than the best case where markets and inflation is concerned for future number crunching.
Join our dynamic team at @PerfectWealth_ and guide clients towards achieving their financial aspirations.
If you're passionate about wealth management and eager to grow, apply now.
For more details, check the Job Description and apply through the Google Form here: https://t.co/9P7UyDNDnE
Yes, you may avoid pain or failure by playing safe but you will also miss learning, growing, and real happiness.
Only the person who takes risks truly lives. You might discover a better version of yourself.
Risk......
We all face one common problem we hesitate to take risks.
We think too much.
We worry about what others will say.
And slowly, we hold ourselves back.
But life itself is a challenge and sometimes, taking a risk helps you discover a new side of yourself.
• To love is to risk not getting love back still… risk is important.
Because the biggest mistake in life is to take no risk at all.
I don’t take risks, I feel paralysed
A person who takes no risk: Does nothing,Has nothing,Becomes nothing (Calculative Risk) ~ Rj