Samson Simon Sharaf

Don't wait for the storm to pass, dance with the rain. Nomadic Punjabi, Freckled Soldier, Wandering Strategist, Columnist & Political Economist.

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

Israel-US Axis
When you start a War with no Objective, exit towards Peace is impeded by a biased end-game. Dragging feet is not a sprint.
IRAN
The war for survival is always intense to the last man standing. Geography, environment and social cohesion are Iran's fortes
#IranWar‌

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

@CaitlinDoornbos My reality check.
For long Israel has played its Vulnerability linked to US military's indispensability. Israeli nukes are a blackmail tool to make the USA an accomplice in Zionism below the threshold. Israel is testing this matrix to the Last Resort.
Dangerous calculations.

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

For long Israel has played its Vulnerability linked to US military's indispensability. Israeli nukes are a blackmail tool to make the USA an accomplice in Zionism below the threshold. Israel is putting this matrix to Last Resort Test.

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

A couple of hours before Israel struck Iran, I told @AJEnglish that if Israel defies Trump and strikes Iran, it isn't Iran's deterrence that is put under question, but Trump's credibility since he had so explicitly told the Israelis not to strike.

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

So the Escalation Trap works for whom &, set by whom. USA, Israel or Iran?
Another miscalculation amidst negotiations.
What remains about the credibility of Peace emissaries?

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

Over the past eight or so days, the US has targeted Iranian vessels as well as targets on the Iranian mainland. This included non-Iranian oil vessels. In essence, this was the US seeking to escalate the blockade of the blockade.

At first, Iran's response was proportional. The US could tolerate that response.

In fact, it was beneficial to the US to continue the exchange of blows but keep them relatively limited, as it would slowly but surely erode Iran's deterrence without imposing intolerable costs on the US.

But yesterday, Iran moved to change that equation.

After the US struck a Botswana-flagged tanker as part of Trump's blockade, the Iranians counter-escalated disproportionally.

Tehran struck Kuwait International Airport as well as a US base in Kuwait, Ali Al-Salem.

It struck the 5th Fleet facilities in Bahrain. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It struck Jordan. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It struck northern Iraq. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It struck the UAE. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It struck the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It was a demonstration - and reminder - that Tehran retains escalation dominance.

Whereas the US is comfortable with either a possible deal or a low-level exchange of fire, but not a return to full-scale war, Tehran is comfortable with a possible deal or a full-scale war, but not with a low-level exchange of fire that erodes Iran's deterrence and allows for Trump's "blockade of the blockade" to become effective.

The area where both can actually be comfortable is some sort of a deal. Reaching it, however, is a different story.

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

Redition of a sorrowful ballad that reflects the perilous state of our country and the prayers that the fervour of Jinnah's Pakistan
may always be the light.
https://t.co/sM14zdq0f5

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

Israel is undergoing rebuilding if its logistics and communication infrastructure destroyed by Iran in early April. So operations are restricted to Lebanon & Palestine. Diplomacy is a pause to prepare for a more intense war.

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

Israel appears to be resisting the regional ceasefire encompassed in the pending US-Iran deal. But even if Trump forces Israel to comply, Israel will likely wiggle itself out of the agreement and start attacking Lebanon, citing self-defense.

At that point, Iran would face a painful dilemma. Tehran would almost certainly pressure Trump to intervene and might even threaten to abandon the agreement altogether.

But if Washington failed to act, would Iran truly sacrifice sanctions relief, economic recovery, and an end to open warfare merely to register its objections? Moreover, walking away from the deal might not compel Trump to restrain Israel. Iran could end up with neither an agreement nor a ceasefire in Lebanon. In fact, it would be an outcome Israel would welcome.

One option increasingly discussed within segments of Iran’s security establishment is more ominous still: remaining within the agreement while imposing costs elsewhere — namely on the United Arab Emirates, one of Israel’s closest regional partners.

The logic is brutally simple. If the broader US-Iran arrangement tolerates Israel attacking an Iranian ally in Lebanon, then Tehran may conclude that the same arrangement can tolerate Iran targeting an Israeli ally in the Persian Gulf.

Under such a scenario, Iran could retaliate against Emirati territory or Israeli operatives based there for every Israeli strike conducted in Lebanon. Rather than collapsing the agreement outright, Tehran would seek to exact a calibrated price for Israeli noncompliance.

Read the full analysis here:
https://t.co/1tpxvwHAC2

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

@cenkuygur @jerryshah They play good n bad cop, though both are BAD. According to policy after Obama, they cannot let go of a sequence orchestrated in over a decade. Diplomacy is a hoax. Pakistan & ME are in the extraction line, and have to cede what they desire, under relentless pressure.

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

@MarioNawfal So Iran avoids the Escalation Trap. 👍

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

An ultimate & explosive declaration. God’s family transcends ethnic, national, & linguistic borders.
Old Covenant of an exclusive nation was over. Inclusion of Foreign Women like Tamar, Rahab, Ruth, and the Widow of Zarephath was early blueprint;
Pentecost the New Covenant.

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

The single aircraft in Iranian airspace is Pakistani.

[S p r i n t e r @SprinterPress]

The airspace of Iran is currently completely closed.

The Iranian armed forces have declared a maximum level of combat readiness.

High activity of fighter jets has been recorded in northern Iraq, and aircraft have been spotted in the airspace.

︎It is reported that GPS is being jammed in Qatar and Kuwait.

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

@AmirMateen2 @Believer_Eagle RIP

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

Salman Ateeque of Pakistan has just summitted Mount Everest. Congrats and Zabardast Pakistan!

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

Pakistani climber Salman Ateeq is inching towards summit of Mount Everest right now. Ques are long. Be Blessed
#everest

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

Sohail Sakhi of Pakistan summited Kanchenchunga (8,586 M/28,169 feet in Nepal around 12 AM today. He is part of the Imagine Nepal rope fixing team.

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

At the new location of Pakistan Tea house. Visited after 1972. It is not as good but cheap. Photos remind me that the past was phenomenal.

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

An obvious ploy alongside India to set the region on fire. Iran already has grip on 4 jugulars and now empty cans must rattle.

[Heena Lotus @intrepidlotus]

It is now confirmed by multiple Western sources that the UAE and KSA did covert attacks on Iran over the last few weeks. This brings into question the defense pacts the UAE has with India and that KSA has with Pakistan if the war is to resume. Will Indian and Pakistani military and nuclear capabilities be used against Iran, Lebanon, Gaza or Syria? Yemen currently has an ongoing proxy war going on between UAE and KSA which should also bring it to the front and center of this question.

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

@iamthedrifter Ayesha, call it another military failure of Israel-US-UAE-India Nexus 😂

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

They are banging on disinformation having lost the Ill conceived plot

[Reuters @Reuters]

Exclusive: Saudi Arabia launched numerous, unpublicized strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks carried out in the kingdom during the Middle East war, two Western officials briefed on the matter and two Iranian officials said https://t.co/roQOErwt5k

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

@ashoswai @Murrawat1 Voila! The pain of failure justifies in mysterious ways

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

@omar_quraishi They can rot with Bibi bitch

[Samson Simon Sharaf @Samson_Sharaf]

@JenniferJJacobs @CBSNews Pakistan did not.
I wish they had and wish they do in future. Then US and Israeli propaganda clutter will realise, how foolish they were.