Luis

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

NEW: NASA opens applications for volunteers to spend a year in isolation simulating a Moon & Mars mission — complete with a 3D-printed habitat & a rover with a non-flushable toilet.

[tortilladepapa @2121rizu]

This sudden hate campaign against Argentina shows exactly how NPC culture works. People became incapable of having independent thoughts. Social media manufactured a bunch of easily manipulated zombies to guide public opinion in favor of their interests.

[Alexander Leishman 🇺🇸 @Leishman]

Argentina is a country designed in a lab to cause maximal stress for anyone involved.

[Luis @SandbergHaedo]

@valcosecurities La historia de ambas empresas es desastroza en los últimos años, especialmente $BAK, y eso es lo que se ve en el precio de la acción. Lo que comentaba es que hay que seguir esos dos eventos (reestruc de deuda en braskem y divesting en sid) porque son posibles puntos de inflexión

[Luis @SandbergHaedo]

@QuipusCapital Isn't it trading at 1x EV/EBITDA? lol Maybe 1.5x adj by leasings

[Luis @SandbergHaedo]

@valcosecurities Me refería a futuro, si recién arrancaron ambos procesos...

[Luis @SandbergHaedo]

@valcosecurities En $BAK veo una exitosa reestructuración de deuda (sin ampliación de capital) y en $SID deleveraging vendiendo Cementos y mejora de EBITDA en minería, debería llevar ratio de deuda abajo de 2x EBITDA. Es un x3 en ese escenario para ir a un EV/EBITDA lógico

[Luis @SandbergHaedo]

@valcosecurities Tengo 2/3. Voy a ver si sumo la que me falta 😂

[Luis @SandbergHaedo]

@Crisu1969 @WerewolfHolding @CNBC I reckon no bankrupcy and no capital increase...

[Luis @SandbergHaedo]

@DCommittee28163 @calvinfroedge Exactly. Offer a coupon step-up (instead of flat -200bps cut) + cash sweep / early interest trigger once liquidity hits certain thresholds. This would address AHG's main concerns

[Luis @SandbergHaedo]

@calvinfroedge Calvin, next time you are in Argentina let me invite you an asado... we'll celebrate together Braskem at 20usd

[kache @yacineMTB]

My 3d printer is more reliable and cheaper to run than any actual 2d printer (I don't own any 2d printers, by the way)

[Luis @SandbergHaedo]

@LimitedHangOut1 @NicoFCok @Nichola77431904 Yeah, also due to the upcoming tender offer...

[Luis @SandbergHaedo]

@NicoFCok @ALLKAResearch Shares could go up 5x, bonds can't

[Luis @SandbergHaedo]

@ALLKAResearch Superb article, thanks for sharing!

[ALLKA Research @ALLKAResearch]

As promised — my full Braskem thesis is live on Substack. Link in bio.

Here's why I added 1,500 more shares of $BAK last Wednesday, even though it's already 15%+ of my portfolio

🔴 $PBR Petrobras naphtha sales hit 88,000 bpd — highest since pre-COVID, when Braskem was printing billions in quarterly EBITDA. Up 42% YoY, 63% QoQ.

Historical data shows a 75% hit rate between naphtha moves and resin volumes. Most analysts won't check this until earnings. By then the move is done.

🔴Braskem Idesa bonds moved from 53 → 70. In 2008, secured senior bonds were at 50–60 right before actual Chapter 11 filings. The market is pricing catastrophe. The bond market disagrees.

🔴I tracked two Braskem Idesa vessels via Maritime Optima. One went to China in mid-April — not Brazil, not Mexico. Offloaded April 22nd, now heading back to Texas. A trade route is being built in real time.

🔴 This is Part 1. Three more reasons — including the one that made me most uncomfortable — dropping mid-week on Substack.

If this is the level of detail you want on commodity equities — follow. Link in bio.

[ALLKA Research @ALLKAResearch]

$BAK $PBR Brazil Plastics Surge 64-80%

🚨Domestic LDPE is up ~68%, HDPE ~77%, and LLDPE ~80%.

🚨On a FOB Houston basis, gains were even sharper, with HDPE +116% and LLDPE +112%, reflecting global flow distortions and regional tightness.

🚨Brazil remains structurally short: PE capacity is 3.0Mt vs demand of 3.65Mt, and PP capacity is 1.85Mt vs demand of 2.05Mt, forcing reliance on imports.

🚨This gap is compounded by anti-dumping duties on US and Canadian PE and ongoing measures on PP.

ICIS sees prices elevated for next 3-6 months, peaking around May 2026 before gradual normalization.

[ALLKA Research @ALLKAResearch]

$BAK $PBR Well, that's where the story comes to an end.

🟥Braskem said Petrobras and IG4 [Shine I Fundo de Investimento em Participações Multiestratégia Responsabilidade Limitada] signed a new shareholders’ agreement regulating shared control of the company.

🟥The pact becomes effective upon closing of the previously announced share sale, pending judicial approvals.

🟥 Antitrust clearance has been secured, while Petrobras will not exercise pre-emptive or tag-along rights under the current agreement.

[Luis @SandbergHaedo]

@MisterPlanero Está desconectada de todo porque la incertidumbre es cuál será el plan de reestructuración de IG4... habrá inyección de capital o no? (Idem IDESA) El resto todo bullish, Alagoas, cambio de control, ciclo petroquímico, leyes antidumping y beneficios fiscales, TPQM,... estoy long