Shifting Sands Report

Geopolitics | Trade | Energy | Macroeconomics | Historical echoes in a changing world order

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

Tolling of Hormuz isn't without historical precedence. The Danes tolled the strait of Øresund from 1429-1857.
Under threat of cannon fire from Helsingør. Ships seeking access to Baltic trade, paid the toll.

Mercantilism+multipolarity=weaponized trade routes

[Reuters @Reuters]

The battle for Hormuz risks sparking the next Iran clash https://t.co/OMNKHMKl48 https://t.co/OMNKHMKl48

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@Defence_Index Well its good that he eventually understood this, would be best if he had done some research beforehand.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@s_m_marandi The US is probably making them do this to inhibit the Iranian players’ capabilities physically and psychologically, because they already suffered a military defeat and they’re scared to suffer a second defeat in a potential match.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@WarMonitor3 You don’t really need an official source to tell you that… just common sense.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

This is a test of detterence. They’re resolve is being tested in the strait of Hormuz and now by Netanyahu in Beirut. If they don’t make good on their threat, that invites more infringements. Expect a resumption of war this week, its gonna be hard to TACO out of this one.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC is now ready to execute "Operation True Promise 5" against Israel tonight, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei having authorized the full-scale resumption of war and Iran's Supreme National Security Council convening an emergency session, saying a "painful and decisive response" will come in response to Beirut strikes, per Iranian state TV.

Iran has issued an evacuation warning to all residents in northern Israeli territory to immediately leave, with coordinates of Israeli targets now transferred to missile units.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

Iran promises to strike Israel.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

BREAKING 🔴

Iran promises to Strike Israel.

Rezaei, spokesman for Iran’s parliamentary National Security Committee: “The Zionist regime will face a painful and decisive response for its attack on Dahiyeh. Watch the skies over the occupied territories tonight.”

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@Defence_Index Trump as usual performing a masterclass in Orwellianism:

War is Peace
Freedom is Slavery
Ignorance is Strength

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@Nostre_damus

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@DaveHammon12948 @Osint613 Iran isn’t an Island, they border 7 countries + Caspian sea in the north, and several ships transiting to China has reportedly breached the blockade. Saying 100% rev is cut off, is ridiculous. You can’t take what CENTCOM says at face value. Propaganda during war is the norm.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@DaveHammon12948 @Osint613 During the Iran-Iraq war they suffered 500,000 casualties, it was a war of attrition that lasted 8 years. In the tanker wars phase they lost 50% of oil revenues, and kept on fighting. Its just been 100 days, US intelligence leaks claim they kept ~75% missiles and launchers.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@andrepaltry Haha sorry

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@TheIranianzg3z Renewed fighting is a guarantee now, its the logical move for Tehran. US is trying to salami slice their way into controlling SOH. Netanyahu is crossing Iran’s red lines in Leb. They’re testing Iran’s resolve and willingness to escalate. No answer leads to bigger infringements.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@DaveHammon12948 @Osint613 Actually I think both sides are, but I think the US is more afraid. And that can be ascertained by Trump’s constant shifting of positions and ultimatums postponements, US stockpiles depletion, a world economy accelerating into a depression. But Iran is fighting an existential war

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@MEC_Tracker Exactly, resumption of war is very likely now. Iran has been very consistent in regards to red lines and threats, definately in comparison to Trump. I expect war, Trump may be able to avoid it with a severe TACO though… but I doubt it would be enough.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@Ekenewhite @Osint613 But Hezbollah is a non-state actor. Which is a part of Iran’s axis of resistance. They regard the gov as irrelevant. Iran stated that an Israeli attack on Beirut would mean a return to war. Not making good on the threat signals weakness, which invites more infringements on Iran.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@DaveHammon12948 @Osint613 Yeah but, minor attack not adressed now invites bigger and bigger attacks. I think the logical response would be a retaliation to show that they’re not afraid of an escalation.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@Conflict_Radar They have to, this is a test of detterence. They’re resolve is being tested in the strait of Hormuz and now by Netanyahu in Beirut. If they don’t make good on their threat, that invites more infringements. Expect a resumption of war this week, if Trump doesn’t TACO in major way.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@Megatron_ron A forever war in the making…

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@emmythelab @AlternatNews Yes the achilles heel of every empire seems to be hubris…

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@AlternatNews I concur entirely with your assessment!

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

If Netanyahu isn’t reeled in by Trump quick, most likely this will lead to a resumption of war. The US have been testing Iran’s resolve in the strait of Hormuz.
Netanyahu is now testing it in Lebanon.
If Tehran makes good on its threats, this isn’t going to be good for the world.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Israel has just launched air strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut, acting on direct orders from Netanyahu, per IDF.

Iran has warned it will directly strike Israel if Netanyahu carried out this exact strike, with Foreign Minister Araghchi saying any attack on Beirut would bring a "full-scale resumption of the war."