SardineTrawler

When the seagulls follow the trawler, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea. Gives kung fu / football advice, not investment advice.

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@Akston_Capital You can't really compare the $0.5bn and $4bn as HAS sells part of eOne only (retaining Peppa Pig for instance). You are probably right on value destruction though!

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@Fernnnandes1 how did you come across this?? good spot 👏

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@bfrankvalue 14 May is stop date, deal over if no extension by then

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@zurbotron you think $MGI deal closing? 1- I can't really see MDP wanting to close any longer given markets dislocation since deal announcement / YTD; 2- if they wanted to close, they would have extended the stop close by now
(like they did end Jan '23 ahead of the mid Feb deadline)?

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

the "content slate" Q4 trade is back on $NFLX! MS: "Harry & Meg giving them stronger content upside for the core subs". I am not sure specific content release has been a great driver for net adds in a given quarter, and if the hope is now that (parody?) documentary for Q4 '22...

[Mike @NonGaap]

So you're telling me $CHTR:

1. Gets a new CEO effective Dec 1st
2. Schedules random mid-Dec investor meeting
3. Guides increased spend that drops stock ~16%
4. Will grant CEO's options in mid-Jan before Q4 earnings

Well that's some lucky timing to grant shares after Dec drop!

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

the contrast with $TEP that had been sending daily emails / organizing daily conference calls - ok that was a bit much/bizarre too...

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

$DLO no response to emails from IR in the 2 weeks post a short attack that took stock price down 42% - totally the way to manage investor relations in a crisis...

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@garyblack00 the consistent retail equity outflows for the past week (crystalizing tax losses?) are notable though, it could affect particularly "retail" stocks like $TSLA (2/2)

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@garyblack00 I am not so sure Gary, Elon was only 5% of $TSLA volumes in those 3 days, not helpful but prob doesn't explain such a significant underperformance (1/2)

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@OracleNYSE Avram Glazer:“It’s *not necessarily a sale*, it’s a process and we’re going forward with the process, so we’ll see what happens.” $MANU - what if some of the Glazers (Avram/Joel wanted to buy out their siblings last year) stay in and get a minority investor coming in? #nopremium

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@inglouriouscap $MANU - totally special sits AND short

https://t.co/9hcmx1DkzB

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

$MANU is up 66% over the past 4 sessions on the crafty Glazers putting the club (or rather their Class B shares) for sale #GlazersOut -> unfortunately Class A shareholders are going to watch the action from the stands #bagholders #ClassOfTheirOwn 2/4

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@pekwat we have bets like Reels (...) some external metrics suggest that Reels may be 50% time of TikTok outside of China, we don't aspire to be half of anything, but compared to a year ago maybe teens, trends have been pretty good, growing, good feedback from ppl in our community

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@pekwat min '11 "the engagement we are seeing on those apps is strong, there is somewhat of a perception that it is not going as well for some reasons, but internally from all the numbers that we see, the metrics are strong, engagement is going well"

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@pekwat funny they compare themselves to non-traded REIT, the argument would have been stronger vs. listed peers (for now, it sounds like "we are less bad than other private guys"). Note Rental Housing & Industrial = 78% of portfolio

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@XanderXanXan @S_curvecap @SleepwellCap 2) no one will think that $FTCH '25 targets are too low given a- total lack of mgmt credibility, b- they would need to start beating, yet they will miss 2023 targets that are too high still

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@XanderXanXan @S_curvecap @SleepwellCap $FTCH CMD '25 targets are going to be hard to digest 1) they are bad indeed: low take rate/margin at FPS (core the equity story of the new FTCH) AND low marketplace growth outlook CAGR (+8-10% p.a.)

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@pekwat instead you have to go back being a small cap shareholder, while new owner goes through an expensive squad revamp and stadium refurb - not a given that actually creates value

[SardineTrawler @SardineTrawler7]

@pekwat nice to have a high mark ($MANU now valued at £3.7bn vs. Chelsea sold for £2.5bn, and Liverpool reported to attract a £3bn bid), but stock +73% is prob pricing much more than "that's cool to know someone paid x for control", anticipating an actual offer for Class A shares indeed