Aleph

Pvt Kitty Account. Ubuntu

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

@FibSixOne8 When do we go in on the AU AG ratio trade? and what is your favorite mechanism to express that trade?

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

@MacroSkokie Never getting laid period.

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

@MacroSkokie Your setups are incredible

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

For ZAR specifically, I’ve been complacen t here and it’s time to lean bearish over the medium term. SA’s structural issues (Eskom, logistics, fiscal) haven’t been solved, the GNU honeymoon is fading, and if global risk appetite deteriorates alongside a stronger dollar, ZAR is always one of the first EM currencies to get hit. Rhe 18.50-19.50 could easily come back into play.

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

@kittysquiddy Thanks for this note BK. Wow. Massive view. I’ve been uncomfortable with status quo and will address on Monday!

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

Proper analysis
Paul Volcker was indeed the tallest of them all (2.01 meters) and led the interest rate to a historic peak of 20%, while Janet Yellen, who was short (1.52 meters), served during a period of near-zero interest rates that only rose slightly toward the end of her term.

Kevin Warsh at the end of the chart suggests that his appointment might signal another step up in interest rates.

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

@DominnoPKitty @FelisNullius Same pls - I’m very busy with this for some time now. Made unreal progress.

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

Getting more complicated...

Somalia has decided to cancel all agreements with the United Arab Emirates, including security and defense agreements, and is giving them a period of time to evacuate all weapons, equipment, and Emirati officers from Mogadishu, Bosaso, and Berbera.

This is a dramatic event

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

No one taking about the spat between Saudi and Emirates? Things no bueno there! @GeoLitKitty

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

A convoy of trucks loaded with Emirati weapons was attacked and destroyed on the border between Ethiopia and Sudan, while on its way to the Rapid Support Forces camps.

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

Reports of deaths starting to leak and it sounds ugly

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

Iran -Let’s try to make sense of this chaos.

The USA and Israel are enemies of Iran, and together they’ve long been accused of causing chaos in the Middle East.

Now, imagine President Trump giving the order to attack Iran tonight, tomorrow or who knows when. What does that order actually mean?

This is a dramatic event with unimaginable consequences.

To attack Iran, the USA would need to activate a sophisticated system involving fighter jets, warships and submarines, launching hundreds of cruise missiles at military targets.

Iran won’t sit idly by; it’s been preparing for this moment for years. It can easily strike many targets throughout the Middle East where American assets are located.

Iran is vast, so the USA will need to deploy technologies, some of which I believe have never been used before, including advanced cyber capabilities.

I’m not saying it’s impossible, but several simultaneous actions will be required for any effect at all in such a large-scale event.

This could have unprecedented regional consequences. Once the Iranians realise what’s happening, they’ll have nothing to lose, making it the most dangerous part of the story.

It’s crucial to remember that many of Iran’s capabilities weren’t even used in the 12-day war, including its naval capabilities, which are significant.

Consider the recent visits of Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi to Beirut and Quds Force commander Esmail to Baghdad.

This is the calm before the storm.

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

There are things it gets so right so easily. I’ve created excellent automated functions to run parsing and WhatsApp’ messages to clients with wenhooks. Perfect on azure cloud, also a cool automated dashboard for the fed minutes etc quite complex and working beautifully with execution direst to IN, but I’ve been going in circles with azure sql and dashboard as a static web page. Feel like that car going over the edge. It’s so addictive though…

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

Somalia has decided to ban all military and logistical flights of the United Arab Emirates from passing through its airspace, while exempting civilian flights, in an official step that has come into effect.

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

Reports ( GB News and Euro News) of NATO is preparing to deploy its forces in Greenland to defend against a possible American invasion.

Britain is already negotiating with its European allies about deploying the alliance's military forces on the island and imposing sanctions on American companies if Trump refuses this proposal.

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

GREENLAND
Trump’s Greenland obsession isn’t random - it’s arguably the most strategically important piece of real estate in the new Cold War.

**Why it matters:**

• Pituffik Space Base - northernmost US military facility, critical for missile early warning and satellite tracking

• GIUK Gap control - the chokepoint for Russian subs entering the Atlantic

• Rare earths motherlode - Greenland sits on massive deposits of the minerals China currently controls 85-90% of globally

• Arctic shipping routes opening up as ice melts - whoever controls Greenland controls the new trade lanes

**The China angle is key:**

Beijing tried to buy into major rare earth projects (Kvanefjeld, Tanbreez) and offered to build Greenland’s airports in 2018. The US and Denmark blocked all of it. Washington sees every Chinese dollar in Greenland as a direct national security threat.

Joint Chinese-Russian bomber patrols near Alaska and naval exercises in Arctic waters aren’t helping.

**Can Trump actually take it?**

Short answer: No.

Greenland is autonomous Danish territory. Any status change requires a local referendum. Denmark and Greenland have both told him to get lost. Military action against a NATO ally is unthinkable.

But long-game economic and diplomatic pressure? Entirely possible.

**Bottom line:** This isn’t going away. The Arctic is the next great power battleground.
@kittysquiddy

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

The nightmare of Tehran is coming true: the economic and political protests merge for the first time

Sagiv Assouline, a former senior official at Mossad and an Iran expert at JCFA, says that the current wave of protests crosses a historic line for the Iranian regime. For the first time since the Islamic Revolution, the severe economic protest is connecting to a broad and organized political protest. “This is what the regime feared the most,” he explains. “We have never before seen the bazaar, truck drivers, taxi drivers, and organized unions joining forces, setting dates, and taking to the streets as a single bloc.”

According to Assouline, over 60 percent of Iran’s population is under 35, a Westernized, secular, and anti-Islamic generation fed up with the reality of economic collapse, power outages, drought, and extreme cost of living. The main difference compared to past protests is the emergence of signs of open international support. “One sentence from Trump in support of the Iranian people is worth more than a hundred missiles. What Iranians need now is hope, and if we also see a reversal within the military – even ignoring repression – we might be at the threshold of a completely different event.”
@GeoLitKitty

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

@pangolinrespect Me too, actually started 1 month ago and made some amazing progress feel free to reach out

[Aleph @SaykhelC]

The situation is only getting more complicated

Former European and Danish Member of Parliament Morten

We must stand in absolute refusal against Trump..

This is the only language he understands!

This week was a "joke" in every sense. Trump's statements regarding Denmark and Greenland are completely unacceptable, and we must be very clear in our response:

Greenland is Danish.. period.

Denmark does not yield to threats, whether they come from Putin, Erdogan, or Trump. We defend the sovereignty of our land and the unity of our kingdom. This is not a matter for negotiation, not for sale, and cannot be a subject of meetings where we hope for "understanding" with a person who only understands the language of determination and power.

We have stood alongside the United States since World War II, and our Danish youth have paid the price in Afghanistan and Iraq. But if Trump wants to tear apart this connection, it will be his responsibility, not ours.

Denmark is the one that decides how it appears to the world.
When "Lars Løkke" tries to meet with the Americans to talk about Greenland, and when "Mette Frederiksen" hesitates to end these complications, they send a wrong message not only to Trump but also to our allies in America who effectively support Denmark.

If we want to send a message, it must be clear:

Greenland is Danish.
We will not retreat.
There is no negotiation with those who use the language of threats.
What are our next steps?
Increasing military presence in the Arctic region (Arktis).

Closing the issue of Greenland's separation, this discussion only serves the ambitions of people like Trump.

Activating NATO's role on our European allies to stand shoulder to shoulder with Denmark.
Trump and his people must face a refusal they understand; this is the only method that works with them.