Scamwick

Forex trader since 2019

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

@mehdi49078920 It's a joke dude.

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

Well at this rate, perhaps by the time the airdrop occurs spot $omg will be trading at $25 and perps $omg at $2.5🤝

#cryptocurrency #Bitcoin #Airdrop

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

@CryptoZomma @OzanAgan @satsdart Had a bit of a stroke when I wrote this but you probably get the point

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

@CryptoZomma @OzanAgan @satsdart Yes this is exactly what is happening. However the perps prices are differ a lot themselves between different exchanges. It doesn't make sense not to utilise the price gap between ftx and Binance for example, it will be gone in due time, people generally like free money

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

@OzanAgan @CryptoZomma @satsdart This is very likely to happen. Arbitrage opportunities left and right, perps-to-spot and even perps-to-perps

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

In this case $OMG has a divergence of 10% between perps/spot price. That's massive. The airdrop in a few days will likely push spot higher, meaning as long as you aren't over leveraged you have a nice opportunity to profit in perps whenever prices snap back.

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

$OMG ..Spot and futures prices convergence eventually. Until that happens there exists an arbitrage opportunity. For example:

Say #BTC was 66k but perps were 64k. The next day prices converge and meet at 65k. A long position on perps presented a low risk opportunity of 1k profit

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

@kiddy_crypto @mehdi49078920 They don't need to do anything technically. But what's reasonable is to assume a sell-off on spot after snapshot and if the gap persists shorts covering their position on perps which pushes up prices. This is anyone's guess however.

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

About the $OMG situation in #Binance. There is currently nearly a 10% difference in price between spot and perps. This comes from hedgers buying on spot for the airdrop and shorting perps as a hedge.

1

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

@Positivemoney1 @DuanSegundo He's wrong basically, everyone is hedge short everywhere. Airdrop is supported on FTX too so it doesn't make sense they wouldn't also be hedged when every other exchange is

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

@DuanSegundo If it gets momentum, sure it could squeeze. Final catalyst for a pump will be hedgers closing their shorts eventually after the airdrop however. I can't imagine many would be shorting this with the intention of shorting

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

@Positivemoney1 @DuanSegundo People are surely longing, but it doesn't matter because the funding is stuck at floor level which tells us the shorters have a much larger position

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

@kiddy_crypto @mehdi49078920 Well yes but with the airdrop coming up in 3 days it's quite likely spot price will still rise, doesn't mean the gap couldn't be filled already before the airdrop

I'm saying what's likely to happen if the gap stays is: airdrop occurs > spot dumps > perps pumps (shorts covering)

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

@mehdi49078920 You would collect 820% APR from $OMG funding for a few days and almost be guaranteed a better position in a few days. Alternatively you could exit the long buy spot and swap back into a perp-contract long right after the snapshot. Whatever you prefer, both work.

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

As a trader and investor you have two possible ways to play this. Either the safer play which is to long $OMG perps and collect the 821.25% APR until snapshot.

The other one would be to play spot now sell into perps at airdrop, beware it may be a crowded trade.

6

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

What you have to understand is that futures price is dictated by shorts and long contracts being opened, not determined by spot price as many may think. When you take this into consideration, it's very obvious what will happen.

5

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

This is equal to buying pressure and as we can see there is currently, 3 days before the airdrop a 10% gap to be filled. If this doesn't get abused before the airdrop I guarantee you it will right after.

4

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

The only ways I see this ending are: spot price drops and perps rise before the airdrop (unlikely). What is likely is that spot will dump immediately after the snapshot is taken. Hedgers will however want to close their shorts at that point.

3

[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

Arbitrage opportunities like this do not come often. Last time I saw it happen was with $RAY. It ended up in perps blasting off in the end.

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[Scamwick @Scamwick1]

@George1Trader The range is still there on Binance btw, 10% difference nearly between spot and perps