Got the mini app working on @baseapp here’s an update.
Prediction markets can 100x but most can’t and won’t. I built Instincts to change that. Pumpfun memecoin mechanics so early joiners get huge upside if the market takes off.
It’s built for people in streamer communities to create and bet on markets for their favorite streamers. Share them right in discord/chat and earn from the fees as the market grows and others ape in.
Originally building on another chain but switched to base after seeing how much it supports creators. The community here is active, supportive, and perfect for indie devs like me.
Still a work in progress, but put a lot of work into making a market simple. Anyone can make a bet in seconds.
Here’s a quick demo I made on the base mini app. Still on testnet, launching soon.
@jessepollak@baseposting@buildonbase@davidtsocy@nickprince
The post says bet on 98 outcome markets daily. There is no mention of alpha. So this is my logic behind it.
On market sitting at 98 cents usually means the crowd is super confident and it's probably ending soon. One problem is getting filled at that price in the last minute or 30 seconds. People holding the other side just aren't gonna sell cheap when they're that sure. So you only catch the trade some of the time. Every miss means you're skipping a bunch should be wins, which lowers your hit rate. Over time that makes it way more likely you'll eventually catch the one that actually loses.