Still J

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@BudgITng Per your rpt - Macro numbers are building literal micro foundations

Capital spend ₦2.79T➡️₦10.84T (+288%) p.26

Roads/Works ₦997B➡️₦4.49T (+350%) p.51

Power grids ₦10.8B➡️₦273B (+2400%) p.52

Overhead share 30.8%➡️23.1% p.22

Personnel cost: 24.9% to 16.1% (p. II)

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@HabeebuAbdulsa1 @raziakkhan The conditions noted (Naira appreciation, reduced inflation and increased GDP growth are anchored on improved productivity which in turn is anchored on the points you made.

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@taiwoyedele Better Moody's rating ➡️ lower sovereign risk premium ➡️ cheaper cost of capital ➡️ lower debt servicing bill.

That freed-up budget goes straight to funding the Security, Power, infrastructure etc.

You can’t eat macroeconomics, but macro is the kitchen where micro is cooked.

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@FinPlanKaluAja1 Better Moody's rating ➡️ lower sovereign risk premium ➡️ cheaper cost of capital ➡️ lower debt servicing bill.

That freed-up budget goes straight to funding the Security, Power, and Roads you listed.

You can’t eat macroeconomics, but macro is the kitchen where micro is cooked.

[Nairametrics @Nairametrics]

Moody’s has revised Nigeria’s sovereign outlook to “positive” from “stable”, citing stronger foreign exchange reserves and better-than-expected economic growth as factors improving the country’s ability to withstand external shocks. https://t.co/hsCw4yORi8

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@Fenudi2019CLONE @realokiemute @eze_ositad33680 @FinPlanKaluAja1 Not sure what this has to do with PMS subsidy but here you go 👇

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@EbiriGbonka I have one question:

If the last government used 97% of revenue just to service debt, where exactly was the funding for the PMS subsidy, overhead, salaries, and Capex coming from?

Simple: Borrowed money. You cannot save what you never had.

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@Fenudi2019CLONE @realokiemute @eze_ositad33680 @FinPlanKaluAja1 My post is on PMS subsidy being funded from borrowing, hence no savings. This is even more glaring when you consider 97% of revenue was used on debt servicing under the last govt.

Borrowing money to pay for a subsidy is just pushing a crisis to tomorrow.

Welcome to tomorrow!

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@Fenudi2019CLONE @realokiemute @eze_ositad33680 @FinPlanKaluAja1 Poor government communication! We have Presidential candidates, economist, media outlets all talking about petrol subsidy savings.

Think about it, if you have to print N30T ways and means, sell future crude oil, use 97% of revenue to service debts, how are you finding subsidy?

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@Fenudi2019CLONE @realokiemute @eze_ositad33680 @FinPlanKaluAja1 There was no subsidy "savings"

it was subsidy "borrowing" that the government stopped

Where did the ₦15.8T come from?

~50%: FX unification (USD oil receipts/customs)

~50%: Stopped NNPC cash leak + higher VAT/CIT & GOE remittances

Increased borrowing & net reserves net off.

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@ennyola0015 Spot on, but a second-term President can shatter this monopoly.

Armed with "the yam and the knife" and the Supreme Court ruling, NASS will always back a final-term President over an outgoing Governor to enforce LGA autonomy and bypass state machinery.

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@eze_ositad33680 @Fenudi2019CLONE @FinPlanKaluAja1 Framing issue:

Debt increase was ₦42T (excluding ways & means)

Net reserves increased was ~₦50T ($36B)

Debt is 55% domestic & 45% international

Net reserves are 100% USD

Result:

Net positive position of +₦8T

Backing Naira domestic liabilities with hard USD assets.

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@Fenudi2019CLONE @FinPlanKaluAja1 Nigeria has run a deficit budget since 1996, borrowing to artificially sustain petrol subsidies and a fixed FX rate. Stopping these policies directly cuts borrowing requirements.

The reported debt spike is a framing issue—net reserves increased by a similar margin.

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@arinzemaduekwe Nigeria only owns 55%-60% of produced crude.

Adding 400k-700k bpd requires massive private capital. Nigeria has funded subsidy with debt since 1999.

A debt-funded subsidy regime completely destroys bankability by replacing market pricing with sovereign default risk.

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@OpeBee Nigerians should stop saying subsidy "savings"—it was subsidy "borrowing,"

Nigeria just stopped borrowing for it.

If Atiku wants to reintroduce it, what's the funding source? Debt servicing, Salaries, or CapEx? A ₦400 subsidy will cost ₦16T before smugglers even get involved

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@AbujaPresident Trade surplus was $1.2B
Debt servicing 97% of revenue, Net reserves wss $3B
FX backlog was $7B
Ways & Means was ₦30T
Crude oil was foward sold

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@FinPlanKaluAja1 What will agege bread cost without subsidy removal?

[Still J @ScientiaVenandi]

@kcemenikex The reform gain was N15.8 trillion.

FG wage adjustments was N9.4trillion

FG external debt service was N9.4 trillion

The objective of the reform was to pay FX backlog, increase net reserves, stabilise naira and increase trade surplus.