@calvinfroedge You think Black Bear will have a producing mine within the next 9 months? Doesn’t seem to be their estimate, and mine would be a couple of years out although I like the stock
@nerd_gaethje > The unknown impact of weather/outdoor venue increases variance, improves his odds
> The Max fight wasn’t an accurate showing either, fight basically ended when he got his nose broken in Round 1
All that being said, Ilia should still be -800
Does Marcus McGhee remind anyone else of Mighty Mouse?
#UFCVEGAS118
Personally, he reminds me a lot of Mighty Mouse if Mighty Mouse had Francis Ngannou's size and power with Khabib's ground game, Anderson Silva's accuracy, Chael Sonnen's gift of gab, Mark Hunt's chin, Conor McGregor's money, Merab's cardio, Ilia's boxing, Jon Jones' fight IQ, Carlos Ulberg's good looks, Dom Cruz's footwork. Jiri's warrior spirit, Strickland's defense, and Max Holloway's volume
Anyone else? No? Just me?
UFC Fight Night: Belal vs. Bonfim
-Carnelossi is just pretty trash. The understated reality is she just can’t stop a takedown. Souza could crush her in the standup but there’s also a path of no resistance. Souza ITD +240. -3.5 at -110 is safer tho.
-Chavez will need a great deal of tightening up as she progresses, but physical tools and combos are just going to be too overwhelming here. Chavez KO +205
-Early in the week I was thinking Leavitt was an exceptional dog, but I’m more leaning just solid dog now. Prob just watching for a live hit if it seems close, think Brito takes R3.
-Chandler is just an embarrassment. Maybe never seen a fighter that reacts to damage more poorly. Despite Cachoeira having super glue on her shoulder blades in perpetuity, she will bring the war and she absolutely cracks. She’s also showed an urgency in the defensive wrestling recently, so I think she puts on an absolute demolition. Rounds will end on the mat if she ends up taken down, but will start firing the missiles in each subsequent round. Priscilla ITD at +200 (KO alone is +210 lol)
-Silva/Chairez I have no real read on. Will likely come down to how willing and urgent Bruno is with grappling
-McGhee price is wide. He’ll win on volume and movement, but will have missiles coming back at him, and he does keep that chin up at point of strike, which will have him in a little danger at his age. Pure pick McGhee but nothing attractive really to bet
-Schnell can beat so many fighters, but if he doesn’t straight up put Costa out, he’ll get gotten at bad. Schnell will look great until he doesn’t again. Nothing to play.
-Think we get a look at wrestler Iwo in this one. Why stand with Tafa when it’s not necessary? Iwo is -350 ITD so it’s a little wide, but sub at +300 is a little unsung
-Man there’s a real path for both fighters in Mitchell/Luna, but I think anyone betting Mitchell is gonna have their asshole puckered for at least the first round. Luna can wrestle both ways, can get up, and is really heavy in the hands. I think he does get to Bryce’s chin and it could be another scary one. KO +290
-Ziam is actually still be underrated at -298 price tag. He’s not giving up any advantage, anywhere, and has shown a new willingness to wrestle. It’s a great parlay piece flat and I think there’s value in ITD at +110
-Allen likely has a good matchup with Edmen. There’s still gonna be an ocean between them on the mat, but Edmen could create lulls in activity in the standup that could bring opportunities. Allen all the way down at -180 flat seems like a good price here.
-It’s an easy narrative to get to, but Bonfim is going to absolutely destroy the leg. It’s also an easy thing to do when there’s zero power threat coming back from the punches. He can just overcommit to leg kicks and still be safe ending up inside. Hes also a pretty nasty grappler and (insert forgotten name here) seems to have lost something in his wrestling. Bonfim flat -108 is a killer price. ITD +180 is maybe fine, but feels a little short