Scruffy Fox

Energy | Commodities | Macro

The fox changes his fur but not his habits

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@acemoney21 What is there really to unlock here, 2mbpd? Iranians fire 1 missile at Fujairah and they un-unlock that + a few mbpd more… Russia isn’t a silver bullet here

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@zarathustra5150 The oft-forgotten middle ground is swimming laps. Rapidly exhausting, full body workout, done in 45 mins and leave with no pain feeling refreshed and energetic

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@calvinfroedge I don’t understand who is making the voyage through the straight when ship or two a day is struck. This is absurd

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@acemoney21 My real asset tape is all green

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@TiffHuber That’s fair. In my experience, asking what the ‘not mine’ thing was usually sent me on wild goose chases as well. I got further when I started trying to answer what it was confronting me with.

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@OilHeadlineNews Of course the source is Javier

I was about to take this news seriously till I saw that

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@Osint613 This is clearly an AI video

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@Nostre_damus US vs Iran

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@StealthQE4 How did the central bank warn Khamenei if he is in critical condition?

I feel like reports of Iranian economic collapse similar to early Ukraine war reports of imminent Russian economic collapse

The costs of enduring this blockade would be recouped 20x if Iran holds firm

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@policytensor What happens when oil inventories are drawn to critical levels? I think that theory of victory might still be firmly intact. 25% of prewar Hormuz transit doesn’t stop inventory draws

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@Tom_IPA @ShaleTier7 @JoshYoung Are you named Tom, is the dog named Tom, or both?

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

I think you have a fair viewpoint when applied that way

Where I differ is that everything I’ve seen/heard has always made it clear to me that he’s primarily a smid-cap manager. To me, as long as investors are clear eyed about the exposure and risks they’re taking on, and understand they’re accepting the very different (and often tougher) smid-cap risk/return profile, I’m good with it. That’s why I don’t take issue with the benchmark choice

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@ThHappyHawaiian This war is like a cage match between two old people. It’s sad to see but you can’t look away.

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@ShaleTier7 @JoshYoung I agree a hedge fund’s job isn’t simply to lever beta. But if the strategy is smid cap energy, the relevant question is whether it generated alpha relative to the smid cap universe, not whether large caps happened to outperform. Those are two different questions.

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

You are incorrect, and it may be because you are confused about what type of fund he runs. You are benchmarking him against large cap funds. He is primarily an investor in small-mid cap oil producer and services companies, and so his accurate benchmark is against smid cap producers/services.

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

@DeepDishEnjoyer Nobody ever said intelligence was a requirement for being part of the intelligencia

[Scruffy Fox @ScruffyFoxx]

I don’t think this is necessarily an error.

Iran’s leverage is highest before a tanker loads. No entry = no cargo

Once a VLCC is fully laden, any confrontation over payment risks a massive oil spill + diplomatic consequences. An Omani exit route may reduce that risk while making transit more sustainable.

[Policy Tensor @policytensor]

The Iranians seem to have doubled down on their error. They should want inbound ships to take the Oman route and outbound ones to take the Iranian route; that way they can keep the exiting tankers under more effective fire control. A clear error. https://t.co/sL1N2AbdM3