Sean McLaughlin

A weekly column on my substack (link below). How Britain can self-revive from 21st century malaise.

Separately, a commentator on South Africa.

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

Some would say it would take a full scale implosion for ANC to be knocked out of those seats as they are FPTP and you can’t take ward seats away from a party so it could end up with a lot more seats than its vote share

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

Anyone able to corroborate? @insidepols @waynesussman @wilkinsoncape - ANC on 18% in Joburg - would the overhang problem keep them up at 27% of seats ? (the number of wards (and thereby ward seats)) they come in first at was 27% of seats

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

I suppose you would have to mark out the new ward boundaries and project who would win in each ward and do the calculation that way

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

An initial search I did a while ago had ANC come in quite clearly first in wards (and thereby seats) which totalled 27% of the total seats in the Joburg council

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@RyanCoetzee @RyanCoetzee - does this suggest a possible ANC - DA deal after November in Ekurhuleni ?

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@wilkinsoncape lol how the article ends ... As she walked away from the mayor’s office ... three young Black girls approached her. “We really like what you’re exposing,” said Nondu, an 18-year-old university student. “Things are getting worse here.”

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@wilkinsoncape I agree with you - extremely superficial

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@wilkinsoncape DA went up in CT on national ballot from 2019 to 2024 - 52.9% to 53.1%

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@PhumlaniMMajozi @when ?

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@GvanOnselen A real centre left party at 30% is smth that would ally with the DA and you must understand why you’re not making breakthroughs- propose education vouchers and stop talking about sustainable development goals

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@GvanOnselen @louisbos123 You guys would achieve more if you all worked together not against each other

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@insidepols Point of the observation is obviously to nudge the DA into tougher stances

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@Our_DA So when’s devolution happening ? Do you want it to ?

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@geordinhl Devolution devolution devolution

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@wilkinsoncape Things like this will win the DA the country - why don’t you do same for education and healthcare ? Moletsi mbeki was right that a liberal party in SA will never win the country unless it proposes “developmental” policies like these

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@RyanCoetzee Yes great - still noone in the DA has been able to give me an answer why the party does not embrace education vouchers? 5 percentage points sitting right there for the taking ... ??? What about the cirriculum ? You will know how education destroyed Lib Dems

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@RyanCoetzee @Siviwe_G right now what about the cirruculum ? what about school vouchers ?

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@adrianho11 @wilkinsoncape @wilkinsoncape - what you think suburban turnout will go ? People are so comfortable and detached in estates

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@adrianho11 @wilkinsoncape She has evidently been doing that - DA only needs to 5-10% of township vote to push 50% citywide

[Sean McLaughlin @SeanSm218]

@wilkinsoncape Basically DA replicates 2016 and ANC replicates 2021. There is nothing coming out of ANC camp makes me think they have stabilised or recovered at all