Sebastian Haworth

No financial advice, personal views only

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@mathlonning @JonahLupton Why does nobody seem to be talking about how Unity had an excellent quarter driven by Vector (Applovin AXON competitor) at the same time that AXON had an issue with model improvements…

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@mathlonning Assuming those are actual results, what would you anticipate the stock reaction to be?

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@rockkdev Had to look this one up last night because this scam attempt was well done

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@amitisinvesting Great take

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@hataf_capital The key question will be will e-commerce dilute conversation rates or increase them? If it increases conversion, then $APP will be a big winner (which is what I believe)

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

Happy birthday to the best dad in the whole world @AjTrader7

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

Disagree…the long tail for $RDDT is much harder to be certain about (not saying there isn’t uncertainty with $APP but I can feel more confident in $APP 2028+)

These LLM licenses can only help so much in the short term but growth will still need to come from core advertising. Anecdotally, the people I know who use $RDDT use it when they are searching out an answer, which is just hard to grow in that environment. Attractive multiple today but I’d take $APP

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@Couch_Investor Oil prices

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

My highest conviction play today is $APP (followed by $TMDX). My cost basis on $APP is $400

I think it’s worth ~$800 vs $480 today. The math is I think they do $7bn EBITDA in 2026 x 40 multiple = $280bn TEV or roughly $820 / share. We can debate the multiple but there is no reason the multiple should be where it’s at today (~23x) by EOY if they continue to execute.

There’s really two key questions I think investors have to answer: 1) is growth sustainable? and 2) are margins structural?

This is certainly not an easy company to understand and there’s a lot of unpacking to do but I’m convinced that many folks on the buy-side don’t fully understand the moat around the business, which really boils down to them owning both the demand side and the supply side of the niche and under penetrated mobile gaming market

I welcome opposing views (outside of just the chart)

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@Nietschecapital Agreed, Matt asked really good questions

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@amitisinvesting Any names, especially SAAS names, that have shown relative strength during SAAS carnage always worth paying attention to

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@geoffhamm @JonahLupton Sure but the vast majority of high-value ad impressions in inventory today are still games, that’s why $app is pushing hard into e-commerce advertisers

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@michaelsikand Why couldn’t OAI just do it themselves? Why do they need to outsource?

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

I think though excl. the Reality Labs vacuum suck, Llama, and all other non-core projects, it’s fundamentally different things AXON vs Meta are solving for.

Meta has likely many trillions of content pieces to sort through every second and determine what the user should see as their next post (think just mindlessly scrolling through Reels and Meta feeding you post after post)…the more GPUs, the better the algorithm gets, the more you stay on Insta, the more advertisers will want to be on Meta

AXON just has to decide one thing: what is this ad slot worth…appreciating there are billions of ad slots at one time, but it’s more of a one-time $ equation AXON is solving for vs. what Meta’s algorithm is solving for is something much more complex

…now, do they need to be spending $120bn+? That’s a different question

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@Nietschecapital @accrued_int @jeremie0117 In my head the way I think about is these big gaming publishers like King Street for example, they might partner with AWS to house their data and MAX who gets the 1P data just using whatever cloud platform the gaming publisher is on (AWS in this example)

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

I could certainly be wrong but I think why $app is way more capex light is because the gaming publishers hold the raw data that $app gets access to through MAX, so $app doesn’t need to spend all the capex on data centers like $meta since they don’t own the mobile games themselves unlike $meta who owns FB, Insta, etc.

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@LakeShowYo Thunder vs Knicks

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

@mathlonning That’s a great point…didn’t think about that

[Sebastian Haworth @SebHaworth]

Rams would have won if we had Aaron Donald