Seb Tallents

Relapsed public servant, recovering management consultant and former physicist. Easily nerd-sniped. Likes, retweets or analysis are not endorsement.

[Seb Tallents @SebTallents]

@Epictetus2001 @rationalhumanis @Noahpinion The reason he wasn't stopped before ending up groundside was because of the common travel area between Ireland and UK - it's almost like a domestic flight. He missed the very big signs/doors.

[Seb Tallents @SebTallents]

@IamMattyStevens @Noahpinion He absolutely did.

[François Valentin @Valen10Francois]

Trump or not, the lesson should be that Europeans can't base their defense strategy on a coin toss in Pennsylvania every 4 years.

Too many saw 2016 as an accident they could wait out until the adults came back. That was and still is a mistake

[Alexander Clarkson  @APHClarkson]

Current reactions play to my pet theory that the EU is better served by the Italian, Polish or French shrugging of shoulders and moving on rather than German meltdowns over how the US is not the Narnia that German analysts once thought it was.

[Alexander Clarkson  @APHClarkson]

The situation is what it is. Analysts and policymakers need to move on and deal with it.

[Alexander Clarkson  @APHClarkson]

Another round of very online Euro analyst wailing and gnashing of teeth is a pointless waste of time that will just get in the way of practical efforts to adjust European strategy

[Ulrich Speck @ulrichspeck]

Europeans shouldn't waist time again with fantasizing endlessly about strategic autonomy. They should go to work immediately and massively invest in Ukraine and in defense.

[Seb Tallents @SebTallents]

This.

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

If Ukraine is defeated and occupied by Russia one day, many Ukrainians will blame the fickle and unreliable West for their tragedy. And if Russia’s armies head to Poland and further into Europe after that, they will have hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian veterans in their ranks — some forced to fight, but many others animated by the “stab in the back” rancor. It’s not too late to prevent that.

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

If Ukraine is defeated and occupied by Russia one day, many Ukrainians will blame the fickle and unreliable West for their tragedy. And if Russia’s armies head to Poland and further into Europe after that, they will have hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian veterans in their ranks — some forced to fight, but many others animated by the “stab in the back” rancor. It’s not too late to prevent that.

[Freddie van Mierlo MP 🔶 @fivanmierlo]

As the results of the US Presidential election still come in, the U.K. must urgently consider its position in Europe and our security. Slava Ukraini

[Seb Tallents @SebTallents]

@turnedfourthing @ChelenaDrew @ThreshedThought If we wanted to coerce Saudi we'd cut off support for their air force of British planes.

Carriers loon a bad strategic choice predicated on contributing to an alliance with the US that meant something. Drones, missiles, artillery, infantry, frigates, planes and subs.

[Stewart McDonald @StewartMcDonald]

Europe must now double down on rearmament, starting with Ukraine. The Bambi eyed days on our own defence and security are done.

[Seb Tallents @SebTallents]

@turnedfourthing @ChelenaDrew @ThreshedThought The question is how far, how fast and how deep the realignment goes; and whether it extends to industrial sectors like tech.

Nous sommes tous De Gaulle maintenant.

[Seb Tallents @SebTallents]

@turnedfourthing @ChelenaDrew @ThreshedThought The point here is the narrative of the US stumping the bill isn't really accurate, and the US stands to lose more from European strategic autonomy or European accommodation with Russia/China than Europe would. To some extent that's baked in now.

[Seb Tallents @SebTallents]

@ChelenaDrew @turnedfourthing @ThreshedThought But odd to assign carriers geared to strike/amphibious support for ASW, when that's frigates and subs.

In retrospect, forgoing carriers for more frigates would be the way to focus on defending GIUK gap.

[Seb Tallents @SebTallents]

@ChelenaDrew @turnedfourthing @ThreshedThought Also preventing the Russians getting subs into the Atlantic through the GIUK gap isn't such a big priority. In this scenario no reinforcements from the US & not UK's problem if Russian subs are menacing US trade or threatening the US East Coast.

[Seb Tallents @SebTallents]

@ChelenaDrew @turnedfourthing @ThreshedThought Anyway, it's kinda besides the point. It's clear the US can't be relied upon from European defence perspective. The UK needs to focus on Europe and defence partners that have skin in the game for Europe. US now largely irrelevant unfortunately.

[Seb Tallents @SebTallents]

@ChelenaDrew @turnedfourthing @ThreshedThought So, you know the UK aircraft carrier program was delayed and the old carriers retired early because of defence budget pressures from fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq right? The carriers work fine, the problem is you don't need carriers to fight Russia.