Sebastian Torres

Economist, trader, cynic, apostate, curmudgeon, but rarely cruel. My alter ego works in analytics/modelling for risk mgmt. My tweets are not financial advice.

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

🧵: To be clear, the Fed’s plan to stop inflation and right the economy is almost entirely based on substantially reducing the wealth of the bottom 80% of Americans / devaluing invest/retire accts to force people not only back to work, but at lower wages. 1/7

$SPX $NDX $DJX $RUT

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

That said, my educated guess would be the real bottom (that is usually found *after* the Fed pauses rate hikes) will be realised.

And I believe that will be around $SPY 320.

Hopefully I will still be here to short it all the way down or acknowledge I was wrong.

Godspeed. 5/5

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

We may get a few more prop pumps, which is what is occurring now (a desperate bid to stave off the inevitable), but the safety net will eventually break. And then we should expect to see $SPY drop to 393, before again testing 376.

What happens after that is anyone’s guess. 4/5

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

The market is going to be very volatile near term but I think we are likely to see a large 30 pt dump in the next 2-3 weeks.

What is happening now is not a “double bottom” or a consolidation period.

It’s a skipping stone along the artificial resistance established in Feb. 3/4

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

$SPY $SPX I’m about to enter another round of treatment but wanted to share a few things before more radio silence.

1) I’ve heard from a few sources at IBs that things inside the financial industry are much worse than they look from the outside and FRB is not the end of it. 1/4

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

2) The Fed is aware of this but their relative indecisiveness—and the Federal debt limit flux—is making things worse; a few major players are positioning for more contagion, as is the Fed.

3) $VIX is being consistently manipulated to reduce both hedging costs and risks rn. 2/4

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

Sell.

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

- Several entities stepped in to attempt to prop markets as the SVB fallout spreads.

- Other major IBs/funds are exposed based on collateral holdings.

- Yellen saying the same things she did in 2007.

One certainly: what happened with SVB is not going to stay with SVB. 2/2

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

$SPX I’ll be away again for awhile—thanks to everyone for the lovely messages of support, it really means a lot.

Before I go, I wanted to share the tidbits I am hearing:

- Lot’s of chaos happening in the financial sector right now.

- Contagions fears are growing quickly. 1/2

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

@SoccerMomTrades Thank you for responding and clarifying. I have checked the account handles again, and they do seem to be close copy cat bots, so I apologise for calling you out, @SoccerMomTrades.

Happy to delete the thread if you would like and hope you’ve hedged since our last discussion.

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

I’ve been inactive dealing with cancer treatment, but I just came back on to see that @SoccerMomTrades has retweeted this response to me in June 2022 several times over the last few weeks… presumably to assert I was wrong with my prediction of an incoming global recession… 1/2

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

…and subsequent financial crisis/market crash. It’s quite ironic that I would come back on today of all days to notice @SoccerMomTrades’s behaviour.

My advice to everyone: beware of charlatans and those that believe are no consequences for (their or others’) bad decisions. 2/2

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

Idiocracy was a documentary sent back from the future.

[MeidasTouch @MeidasTouch]

Republican Rep. Rosendale trolls Kevin McCarthy by adding a dramatic pause after voting for Kevin...Hern.

A total clown show.

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

@SkepticalBaba Idiocracy was a documentary sent back from the future.

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

@SkepticalBaba "A deep recession is good for the markets!"

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

@SkepticalBaba As are the UK, the US, China, and whatever is left of the world after that.

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

@JohnDough_CDXX

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

This and only this.

All of the morons posting "cry more" or "no, you're the sheep" to each other, (D) or (R), libtards, or magats, are the real stooges.

The ruling elite don't care about political ideology, they only care about keeping the peasants fighting amongst themselves.

[Danny Haiphong @GeopoliticsDH]

The United States is not a democracy.

The United States is an oligarchic corporate state ruled by a uni-party of monopolies and warmongers.

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

@Vlagioia Russia much more likely to break truce, given Putin's track record.

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

KREMLIN: TRUCE SCHEDULED TO BE VIOLATED AT 1315 JAN.6

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

KREMLIN: RUSSIA TO ANNOUNCE TRUCE IN UKRAINE FROM 1200 JAN.6 TO 2400 JAN.7 - IFX

[Sebastian Torres @SebTorresTrades]

Translation: We need to keep the poors poor.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

ECB's President Lagarde: wages are rising faster than expected and must not be allowed to feed inflation.