From “Help is on the way” to “we’re making a deal” to “regime change” to “we never wanted regime change” to “we did regime change” to “they can’t have nuclear weapons” to “this was all about opening the Strait that was open a few weeks ago” to “we should nuke the whole country.”
Don't say we didn't warn you! Check out the new episode where we go deep into the whys, the hows, and the WTFs. We have plenty of information, lots of feelings, and a surprising amount of good jokes. @seenanow@travisirvineusa
If this WSJ report is accurate, it is not a good, or winning, strategy…. “President Trump is weighing an initial limited military strike on Iran to force it to meet his demands for a nuclear deal.” https://t.co/HPUd9rM5Qc
Thinking limited strikes are going to prompt Iran to make additional concessions in negotiations with the U.S. is a complete misread of Iranian motivations. Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamanei, and the more conservative elements of the regime are likely to have their skepticism of engaging with the U.S. reinforced and will double down on their intransigence.
For the regime, its survival is its first, second, and third priorities. And so it’s reasonable to ask why wouldn’t Tehran, weakened and humiliated over the last twenty months and having lost most of its deterrence and much of its capabilities — across its ballistic missile program, regional proxy network, and the looming threat of its nuclear program— take stock and give up at least some of the remainder of its tools to ensure its survival?
And the answer is, because weakness, counterintuitively, doesn’t make Iran more flexible. It makes it more defensive — more determined not to repeat the mistakes that left it vulnerable.
The lesson of the last twenty months Iran has absorbed is not that it must compromise — it is that Iran must never again be this exposed that regime survival is at risk. Limited strikes will reinforce that view not temper it.
Iran historically sees itself as a leading actor in resisting Western dominance and regime survival matters above all.
If your view is that a deal with the US is ultimately going to compel you to be subservient to US preferences, then the regime is not surviving, it is morphing into something new and different.
President Trump is more confident than many of his predecessors leveraging military action without clear goals and therefore without clear strategy. On Iran specifically, this willingness has been reinforced by positive outcomes from both the strike against Soleimani in his first term and his strike against the nuclear facilities in June, which may not have destroyed them but undoubtedly significantly set back Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the threat they posed.
There are good reasons for President Trump to take significant military action against Iran right now, and multiple reasons to be skeptical of doing so. But limited strikes to compel greater concessions is the one course of action that almost certainly will not be successful.
@AtlanticCouncil@ACMideast
مقطع فيديو يظهر ليلى خاتمي أبنة علي خاتمي رئيس إيران الأسبق وساشا لاريجاني أبنة علي لاريجاني وحفيدة الخامني وحفيد محسن فخري زادة وبعض أبناء المسؤولين في رحلة خمر وإنبساط وإنشراح وسخرية من نظام أبائهم
You don’t need to sit there and try to decide whether 12,000 people murdered in Iran by the regime is accurate or not.
All you have to know is that the regime itself has admitted to killing thousands — something they have never admitted to doing in such a short period of time, ever.
And it is a historical fact that they always undercount. Always.
So if you still want to engage in atrocity denial after the regime itself has admitted to it; after they have broadcast images on state TV saying that the dead were “ordinary Iranians” (not Mossad agents, as they usually claim); after they have told parents to keep their sons and daughters at home — then you are simply a horrible person who hates the United States and Israel so much that it is clouding your judgment and leading you to hurt Iranians who are just fighting for their freedom.
Iranians who have never met a Mossad agent or intelligence officer.
Iranians who have never communicated with a CIA agent or officer.
People who were simply sick and tired of living under the regime’s suffocating rule and tried to do something about it.
And to be clear, I don’t care that you hate the United States and Israel — but I do care that you are allowing that hatred to cloud your judgment in this case.
And I have consistently advocated against military intervention in Iran.
I am anti-monarchist, and I have never engaged in atrocity denial.
So if you’re one of the people sitting there mocking the murder of Iranians by the regime, or trying to come up with excuses for why it happened, you can’t use any of these things against me to diminish what I’m telling you.
Popular Iranian podcaster and influencer, AmirParsa Neshat, has been arrested.
His IG page has been wiped. Judiciary says it’s for “illegal content.”
Common regime tactic: Silence popular voices who have large platforms, so movements don’t gain more momentum.
The Diddy at Mar-a-Lago story I teased during today's episode of Citizen McCain is here - you just have to read to the end! @mirandali@SeenaNow@MeghanMcCain
https://t.co/f5gccRQspW