Blå

blå blå vindar och vatten 💧

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US firms’ inflation expectations are surging:

Services and manufacturing companies anticipate their costs will increase by 5.7% and 7.3% in 2025, according to the NY Fed.

That would mark the largest jump for manufacturing firms in at least 3 years and the largest jump for services firms in 2 years.

Furthermore, expected cost increases are higher among companies that import more from abroad.

Services firms expect their selling prices will rise by ~5.0% in 2025, the most since 2023.

At the same time, manufacturing firms anticipate selling prices to increase 5.4%, the most since 2022.

Inflation is set to remain elevated.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 has officially ended its streak of 497 trading days above its 200-day average, the second-longest streak in history.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 index closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 12th, 2023.

After the previous stretch of ~450 days finished in January 2022, the Nasdaq 100 lost -5.7% over the next 2 weeks and -22.0% over the next year.

Every time the index has closed below its 200-day moving average after a long run and subsequently dropped over -3.5% within 2 weeks, a bear market followed, according to Sentimentrader.

On the other hand, when the decline was less than -3.5% within 2 weeks, the index saw positive returns over the next year.

History suggests the next 2 weeks are key for the market.

[Olof Ehrenkrona @Olofeh]

Boundless cruelty.

[Gabriella 🇸🇪🇱🇧 @gabriellalbsv]

Att se hur den nya syriska regimen hejdlöst dödar civila alawiter, visar tydligt vad de är för Syrien vi har att vänta oss. De som trodde att dessa personer var demokratiska eller något värt att heja på, var minst sagt naiva.

https://t.co/IVNGOKA4sV

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

Year-to-date, the Magnificant 7 stocks have accounted for nearly the entire downturn in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).

[Peter Sellei @PeterSellei]

Alawiter, kristna och druser torteras och massakeras i hundratal. @svtnyheter korrespondent ser ”En oro” när som de uttrycker sig strider blossar upp i Syrien.

https://t.co/vGxI4GksNd

[Magnus Ranstorp @MagnusRanstorp]

Judiska centralrådet JO-anmäler – på grund av Palestinautställning | SVT Nyheter https://t.co/Ul7l2yCss0

[Mattia Nelles @mattia_n]

YOU DON’T HAVE THE CARDS!1!

Cartoon by Matt Wuerker, Politico

Source: https://t.co/kzWttl9GSm

[Sofie Löwenmark @SofieLowenmark]

https://t.co/oj6TtoSOBS

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

$JPM CEO: " America First is fine. America alone—if we end up alone because, you know, we're tearing the world asunder—we will have made a mistake"

[Magnus Ranstorp @MagnusRanstorp]

Därför vägrar Hamas låta Israel existera. https://t.co/y6jIsYeRRH

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

This time is NOT different.

A thread 🧵

[Blå @seframat]

@sunsungirly Yes

[Carl Bildt @carlbildt]

Trying to sell 🇺🇸 defense equipment to European countries will be an uphill struggle over this. Trump won’t be forever, but then there is JD Vance and others… https://t.co/gaZ4Ck1iLN

[Blå @seframat]

@front_ukrainian Yes

[Blå @seframat]

@frontlinekit Yes

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The @NDR_Research Daily Trading Sentiment Composite fell to 22.2, the lowest since August 2024. Unless in a bear market, this level usually indicates a bottom is near.

Another sentiment indicator flashing extreme levels.

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

Its 0 coincidence where #ES_F rallied 100 points from Friday: Exact support of its macro bull market channel connecting Oct 2023 & Nov 2024 lows (now 5875)

Plan: This bounce is do or die for ES, targeting 6015-20, then 6098-6104. If 5875 fails, sell to 5798 minimum. Detail below

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The S&P 500 is up 1% after two months and it has been a choppy and frustrating ride in 2025 so far.

Turns out, this is perfectly normal in post-election years.

[A. Shatterhand @Dvvmhm]

Vicepresidenten Vance försöker lugna det militärindustriella komplexet (MIK) i USA som är vansinniga över hur Trump saboterar deras exportmarknader.

Talade med en företrädare för MIK igår som kallade Vance ”The Dumbass Pisspot Couchfucker”

Full panik i Trump-admin just nu.

Ha!