Which is why this is sized as an option, not a position.~2M effective float means partial execution moves a lot. So does https://t.co/JuvvJZ7XG0 read: Oct 5 webinar, then Q3 results Nov 13.Long $RTB, small. Not investment advice.
What I keep coming back to is the asset, not the forecast:
A perpetual, worldwide technology license. 21 brands. ~100M monthly users. Live USDC settlement on Coinbase rails. Premier League brands onboarding.
That's not a pitch deck. Most of it shipped.
What would make me wrong:
The raise fails or prices badly. Going-concern language was in the audited financials for a reason. Paradium's own revenue fell ~51% YoY on AI-driven search decline β RTB isn't buying growth, it's buying distribution.
All real.
Second objection: is "$100M revenue" gross or net?
They answered directly β $100M annual gross revenue at ~40% margin.
So ~$40M of contribution, not $100M of profit. Against a ~$130M market cap.
I'd rather have the honest number than the headline.
When $RTB announced a "$1 billion, 10-year agreement," I assumed it was the usual micro-cap headline math.
Then I read the clarification they issued the next day.
It's a different deal than the press cycle reported. π§΅
My objection: a $130M company taking on ad ops for 21 brands should blow up its cost base.
Their answer: these are the same functions RTB already provides enterprise customers. No added cost.
If true, that's the most important line in the release.
What the market thought: RTB is buying https://t.co/2wgGvSzfIG.
What's happening: RTB is buying a minority stake from the largest shareholder β not from the public, not from the company.
Paradium gets cost relief, not capital.
Materially different trade.
Why I own it anyway:
~2M shares in the effective float. ~85% locked up a year or more.
In that structure, partial execution moves a lot. So does failure.
Position sizing is the thesis here.
Long $RTB. Not investment advice. DYOR.
$RTB trades at ~$120M market cap.
Yesterday it announced a 10-year agreement with https://t.co/2wgGvSzfIG $PAAI that management says takes it to $100M annualized revenue.
If that lands, it's trading under 1.2x sales.
The risks, unvarnished:
β’ Substantial doubt about going concern in the audited financials
β’ $492K in cash against an $89M commitment
β’ No 8-K with deal terms yet
β’ Meaningful dilution is close to certain
This isn't a value investment. It's an option.
bitcoin:native
My goal before taking off towards 600K in 2030 is a perfect target in an area with many stop losses. There may be another small drop towards 55K to take liquidity and from there a double bottom will be formed, which is the perfect pattern for the takeoff.