semi

Pretty good at prediction markets.

DM for inquiries

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

I talked to @polymarketinfo a while back and it was fun

https://t.co/YR9QPlq8T8

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@Euphoric696 @NYTmag @semi I think it's important that prediction markets are covered accurately, and this article does that.

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

I was briefly quoted in this great article in the @NYTmag

“You can’t stop the noobs” — the newbies — “from buying literally worthless shares, over and over and over again, every single day,” a trader who goes by @semi told me. “You can’t stop them.”

https://t.co/QOZrfdqktL

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

Our brilliant POTUS has ended yet another war, at this point how can anyone argue against him getting a Nobel Peace Prize?

[Jennifer Griffin @JenGriffinFNC]

I am told the US strikes are over for now. Again these were defensive in nature not offensive and not an effort to break the ceasefire. The US military says it reacted when they saw 2 IRGC boats laying mines and then also when a SAM missile site targeted its warplanes.

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

me every morning before I check my pnl

[Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei @MKhamenei_ir]

God is the Greatest, God is the Greatest. There is no god but Allah. God is the Greatest. God is the Greatest. And all praise is due to Allah. God is the Greatest for what He has guided us to.

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@DeepDishEnjoyer sorry my finger slipped

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@Eltonma you are truly the median voter

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@Just_Curius no offense but this sounds slightly insane

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@visualbasic97 there's still time to sell

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@Merridew__ great trade

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@Merridew__ he won't

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@michael_nielsen Why, it seems highly unlikely that bond traders know about or are pricing in transformative AI?

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@bernardbulletin these people cannot be helped

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@RFishBlueFish Nice!!

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@PoliticalKiwi I'm amazed at how she stepped up her game in the runoff

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

Holy shit, he ended yet another war. Someone get this man a Nobel Peace Prize. ♥️ 🕊️

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

President Trump says he called off planned strike against Iran which was set for Tuesday so negotiations can take place.

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@RFishBlueFish i think so, havent kept an avg or anything

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

we're getting into the Fun Zone...

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

NYT/Siena poll | 5/11-5/15 RV

Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 50% (+2)
🟥Republican 39% (-4)
——
President Trump approval
❌Disapprove 59% (+3)
✅Approve 37% (-3)

(Change from January 2026)

https://t.co/xLmXpI3gwY

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@RFishBlueFish dems way overperformed polls everywhere in 2025 though, and with good turnout

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

@BenShindel not even putting KS/FL/SC I see you haven't yet seen the light

[semi @SemioticRivalry]

Insofar as approval is useful to forecast the midterms, comparing like vs like (2018 v 2026) seems much more useful than using 2026 BRR, which may plausibly be more accurate at determining the "true" approval rating. Baking in some of the weird pro-D errors is probably useful to capture the likely giant turnout differential in the midterms.

Though I would also bet against 44% if we could somehow resolve it to truth, I find that pretty hard to believe. It would be weird if so many polls picked up this demographic that doesnt really exist (trump disapprovers who vote R, or for that matter Biden disapprovers who vote D).