Sensible Speculation

Real winners don't talk a lot - William Gallacher

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

Absolutely nothing beats the combination of a good risk management model and discipline!

If you don't have those, you are likely better off indexing!

#RiskManagement

[PIMCO @PIMCO]

Natural human, emotional reactions to stressful markets can influence the decisions we make. As this chart illustrates, the influence often isn’t for the better. https://t.co/qYY3KsLstc #behavioraleconomics #investing #recession

[Franco-Nevada Corporation @FrancoNevadaFNV]

Our June 2026 corporate presentation is now available on our website. View the presentation here: https://t.co/52GpCaA0VY

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

@relayman @KobeissiLetter I just need a $50,000 print on BTC to collect on a wager I made 12/12/2025. 6 months left to collect. 👍

I still marvel at the amount of money/electricity wasted "mining digital tulips".

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

@relayman @KobeissiLetter It's still a long way to $0.00!

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

Once is happenstance.
Twice is coincidence.
Three times is enemy action
- Auric Goldfinger

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

The first shot over the bow?

https://t.co/0c4vWRo0b9

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

The new edition of Pigs at the Trough......

[Manny Pearlman @relayman]

Would You Want Lionel Messi Playing Goalkeeper? https://t.co/931bFufpw9

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

@SmallCapVal Things have been much, much worse in the past!

It's just that John's at the age now that "it's his turn to worry"!

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

History never repeats itself, but it does rhyme.....

Merchant power plants (early 2000s) - Blackstone and MatlinPatterson bought assets for pennies on the $

Telecom and Subsea Cables (Early 2000s) - Li Ka-Shing, Providence Equity, Michael Dell

Real Estate and Hotel Chains (Early 1990s) - Starwood Capital and Blackstone

The American Railroads (1870s–1890s) - J.P. Morgan, Cornelius Vanderbilt, Edward H. Harriman

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

@SmallCapVal @davidu I bought a car with my American Express card.
(After we'd already agreed on price)

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

@GPFansGlobal Given that 3 already have 24 hour experience, I'd bet against Dave.

(Haven't both Nico and Fernando won LeMans?)

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Between April 2021 and April 2026, monthly retail and food services sales (adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday and trading day differences) increased by 24.3%. While that sounds like the economy must be humming along nicely, sales were essentially flat when adjusted for inflation.
@StatistaCharts @uscensusbureau

[Plankmilton🧠 @Verstappenn_]

Nothing F1 will do this year will even come close to the Nurburgring 24hr and we still have Le Mans etc. Max has shown a wider audience including myself that F1 is not the pinnacle of racing Thank you @Max33Verstappen for showing a new fanbase how good GT3 And Endurance racing is

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

@junkbondinvest March was a warning.
The real test comes in June

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

March was a warning.
The real test comes in June!

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

What are banks’ exposure to private credit?

The FDIC filings say one number. The banks’ own disclosures say a smaller one. 🤔

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

I hate that I'm typing this, but.......

Is a "5 handle" on its way?

[Autosport @autosport]

The real winner of the Nurburgring 24hrs 💪

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

This is one of the best things posted on X. Ever!

Kudos @leevalueroach

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

The 13Fs I have seen so far this quarter are, with maybe four exceptions, the most embarrassing display of professional herding I have witnessed in a decade. Every “widely followed” fund owns the same nine names. The differentiation between them, when you actually lay the holdings out side by side, is statistical noise dressed up as conviction. These are people charging 2 and 20, and 1.5 and 15, and a flat 1% on $4 billion accounts, to deliver portfolios that a Vanguard index fund could replicate at 4 basis points, except with worse turnover, higher tax drag, and a manager letter every quarter explaining why owning the same seven mega-cap names everyone else owns is, in fact, a contrarian act of independent thought.

There is no work in these portfolios. There is no original research. There is no name on any of these 13Fs that required the manager to fly somewhere, sit in a lobby, eat a cookie, call a CEO at a number listed in a proxy statement from 2011, or do anything that any well-read 19-year-old with a Bloomberg login could not have done in an afternoon. The entire industry has, in the last decade, quietly stopped doing the work, because the work is hard, the work is lonely, the work makes you look stupid for 18 months at a time, and the work, when it produces a name nobody else owns, is the single greatest career risk in modern asset management. Nobody gets fired for owning Microsoft. Everyone gets fired for owning a $90 million market cap Pennsylvania bank that the LP committee has never heard of, even when the bank doubles, because by then the LP has already pulled the capital and the manager is already at a different firm doing the same thing he was doing before, which is owning Microsoft.

You can do the work. You can own the small cap they will not. You can build a portfolio that does not look like anyone else’s. You will not be on Bloomberg. You will not be invited to speak at the conference. You will, however, in some ten-year window that you will not be able to predict in advance, outperform every one of these herded portfolios by margins that will, in retrospect, look obvious to everyone except the people who were doing the herding, who will, as they always do, explain that they were right in spirit and just wrong in price, which is, as it has always been, the entire reason the trade on the other side keeps working.

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

I stand by this statement.

You would have preferred an economy where the Federal Reserve didn't step in and monetize the reckless spending by the "fiscal idiots" that dwell in the halls of congress?

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

Reduced the Fed balance sheet by trillions without harm to the economy and/or banking system.

Jerome Powell deserves a Nobel prize in economics, not a politically motivated subpoena.

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

I wonder if I'd gotten good odds on 2 back then?

[Sensible Speculation @SensibleSpec]

I'll take the under on 4.

(I'd likely take the under on 2)