Sentinet Radar

reduce signal to noise ratio

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

@moffat14 @SkyNewsAust You can’t never fail what you don’t start.

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

The media clearly gets it wrong here.

Why consult the actual expert when you can just vibe the numbers out.

[News24 Australia @SkyNewsAust]

Labor failed to contact Australia’s largest property builder before setting its overly ambitious 1.2 million homes target, its CEO has revealed.
https://t.co/H7kQajtBKr

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

It’s a sweet deal

[mdtlion @mdtlion]

🚨 BREAKING NEWS: Albo’s $1m Wagyu Dinner That Definitely Didn’t Happen

ADELAIDE — In a stunning display of Transparency™, Comrade Albanese spent an entire soft-focus ABC interview refusing to confirm he attended a private Point Piper dinner hosted by the son of a Chinese high-roller currently entangled with the Tax Office.

When asked about the $1 million pledge, the father’s alleged money-funnelling, or why former Premier Dan Andrews was spotted the next morning at the Lee family’s Terrey Hills golf club, Albo simply repeated the sacred mantra: “I attend lots of functions.”

Meanwhile the same regime that shrieked about Gina Rinehart buying access for One Nation somehow sees nothing wrong with Wagyu eye fillet and finger-lime ceviche in a $40 million harbourside mansion.

Critics fail to appreciate the sophisticated fundraising model that delivered premium Wagyu eye fillet to the people’s champion.

The ABC, as always, asked the tough questions with the appropriate level of respect.

The revolution is safe.

@abcnews @AlboMP @David_Speers @DanielAndrewsMP

[Dave Hughes @DHughesy]

If you vote for @VictorianLabor in November you are saying yes to the economic destruction of Victoria. I get that you may do it because you or someone in your family is financially benefiting from their corrupt decisions, but long term, your descendants will suffer.

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

@DHughesy @VictorianLabor Plain and simple

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

Australia; this is the opportunity of a lifetime. Intelligence has been commoditised.

Gotta play the cards right, energy to feed
Intelligence to increase manufacturing output.

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

Jensen Huang just broke 𝕏.

2,000 followers per minute, 5M views per hour. His first post is a banger.

He breaks down his thesis on why open-weight models are the future.

This letter is signed by NVIDIA, YC, Meta, Microsoft, Palantir, a16z, and more.

The core argument:

Open-source software didn't just cut costs in the 80s. It built the foundation the entire internet runs on today, including systems used by the US military itself.

The letter argues AI is at the same inflection point right now.

Why open weights matter, according to the letter:

→ Startups, hospitals, universities, and small businesses can build on advanced models without training one from scratch or paying frontier prices
→ Competition keeps AI's gains distributed instead of concentrated in a handful of companies
→ Organizations get to own their data, their customizations, and their accumulated knowledge
→ Open models let a broad community find and fix vulnerabilities faster

Kimi K3 was a huge shift for open-weight intelligence.

Huang's own position: he called fears of hidden backdoors in Chinese models "a misconception," and argues that broader AI adoption, open or closed, ultimately increases demand for Nvidia's chips either way.

The letter draws a clear distinction: distillation (learning from another model's outputs) is a normal part of how AI improves. Unlawfully extracting value from closed models is a separate issue that deserves separate legal treatment, not a blanket restriction on open models.

Absolutely goated first post.

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

Left or Right it does not matter; this corruption and waste must be stopped.

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

There is a massive opportunity for Australia in open source AI model deployment; this data centre build up should ensure open weight hosting deployed at scale; simply because at this moment capability is near match and the world is craving a cost effective alternative.

[Dave Hughes @DHughesy]

Clearly Journos are struggling to make a wage. Big tech pulled the rug out and the industry is dying. But if the Federal Govt is now funding them it needs to be known. That attacks the very heart of independence in journalism. I can say what I like because I’m not financially obligated to anyone right now. I don’t have to worry about offending anyone. Apart from my wife. And that is a concern.

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

This is the most dishonest government I’ve ever seen in Australia.

[Dave Hughes @DHughesy]

Clearly Journos are struggling to make a wage. Big tech pulled the rug out and the industry is dying. But if the Federal Govt is now funding them it needs to be known. That attacks the very heart of independence in journalism. I can say what I like because I’m not financially obligated to anyone right now. I don’t have to worry about offending anyone. Apart from my wife. And that is a concern.

[2GB Sydney @2GB873]

Anthony Albanese has dined at the house of a Chinese billionaire.

It's now been revealed the mansion is the subject of a security claim by the Tax Office!

MORE: https://t.co/C0GuwMQ8xw

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

This is just the beginning. Socialism takes under the guise of fairness and equality. Therefore shutting down any debate - how can you not agree with a more fair and equal xxxx.

I hope that Aussies see through this, the issue is Labor has 2+ years and will keep at it.

[Geoff Wilson @GeoffWilsonWAM]

Treasury's own modelling reveals the new insane #CGT rules were always about revenue, not fairness: an extra $43bn ripped out of Australians' savings. They should have said so from the start. Don’t lie to us @AlboMP & @JEChalmers
#ScrapTheCGTHeist @Sk@SkyNewsAust

https://t.co/XtYZgyHBUT

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

Early AI duopoly consolidation will lead to all sorts of distortions, likely dystopian.

[nic carter @nic_carter]

havent seen one person from OAI or Ant address Jon's argument here.

the point is simple: the USG does not owe either of the large labs a business model. if the economics of selling tokens don't work due to distillation/cheap clones/Chinese AI magick, the American enterprise and consumer will be A-OK. they will benefit from hyperdeflation in the cost of digital cognition just like everyone else. the hyperscalers will be fine. it's just OAI and Ant that won't be – in their current forms at least. if they are willing to adapt, they can develop new business models.

so what if the token merchants don't do well? the neoclouds will be fine. the internet companies will be fine. the consumer gets cheaper queries. the enterprise will still incorporate AI.

the only world in which this isn't fine, is if you hold a quasi-religious belief that we're on the cusp of a kind of AI rapture in which one of the labs Logs On And Wins Forever, namely hits RSI and we enter some kind of sublime post economic society run by GEOTUS Dario. so to accept that Ant's business model might be suboptimal or impaired by China's commoditization is to accept the unacceptable; namely that someone other than the anointed might kick off the runaway feedback loop and that they, instead might log on and win forever.

this appears to explain the discrepancy in reaction to Deepseek Moment v254 Kimi edition. everyone has bag bias, of course. but leaving that aside, most people think it's pretty much ok if Ant and OAI suffer margin compression due to Chinese distillation / industrial sabotage via open weight models. the American economy is not reliant on those two firms. they could blink out of existence and we would pretty much be ok. the AI capex supercycle will still produce tokens, closed weight or not. American firms will consume those tokens. OAI and Ant would probably still scratch a living, due to the latent preference of some token consumers to buy domestic and face off against a known entity.

this is only unacceptable if you think AI is strongly path dependent; that is, if it really matters who the market leader is when AI reaches a breakout level of capability. this is true both in the good case (superintelligence, singularity, etc) and the bad case (this is the essence of safetyism). but if this sounds more like wishcasting than forecasting, you probably don't mind the labs being pressured economically.

now you can clearly tell which side I'm on. I think AI is a fantastic technology which is hyperdeflating the cost of cognition and will fundamentally reshape society but there are real reasons why it wont diffuse as fast as the AGI people think it well. I would prefer an American firm achieve RSI relative to a Chinese one but I think either outcome would be suboptimal; better that we don't end up with a closed oligopoly composed of Ant/OAI. China by crushing the margins of the labs is doing everyone a favor by eliminating their pricing power and empowering the buyers of AI, namely, everyone.

objections:

-but you can't celebrate America losing to China!
- in my opinion this is a minor victory for China but not necessarily an enduring one. USA still has the chip, datacenter, and neocloud advantage, not to mention, it still has the best frontier models. Chinese labs releasing open weight models have no business model of their own. so even if they hurt the US labs, they have nothing to show for it. it's profoundly unlike their successful dumping campaigns with solar panels, batteries, drones, etc where they eventually built big domestic industries. (if China kills American AI with open weight models, we can even the score the moment they try and release a proprietary model). even if open weights win, the USA can still leverage AI extremely well and potentally retain the aggregate compute advantage. yes, the US would be more assured of victory if OAI or Ant won forever, but I don't know if I want to live in that world.

- no one will ever train a model again
- this is where I think the concern is unwarranted. let's say distillation really is a golden bullet and kills big training runs. that doesn't advantage either China or the US. that's a stalemate. not to mention, the trend seems to be less focusing less on massive pretraining budgets and more on finetuning for specific genres of tasks, thinking machines style. and lastly I find it hard to believe that training runs will stop altogether. the labs can probably develop anti-distillation techniques. you could adopt a whitelist style permission for everyone using your model. different consortia could be put together to share in the cost of training a model, if it is seen as too expensive for an individual firm.

- the AI buildout is path dependent and OAI/Ant are now load bearing GDP infrastructure
- it would be a significant setback for investors if they had to cancel their IPOs and suffered big markdowns, and some neoclouds with lab based RPOs would suffer for a while, but everyone would be fine, really. does Microsoft need OAI or Ant? does Meta? does Google? ordinary Americans have ~no exposure to either OAI or Ant. would the world want any less compute if it turns out to be another order of magnitude cheaper? certainly not. as we all know at this point, consumption would go up. I don't think the economy is so dependent on the labs that it couldn't handle their margins compressing.

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

@hexednobility @OpenAI @huggingface Go figure!

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

@amasad Oh! The irony in it.

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

@Ausbobsmit These people have no moral compass.

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

Must do.

[Geoff Wilson @GeoffWilsonWAM]

Labor’s National Conference is this Thursday. NOW is the time to speak up. Tell your local Labor MP that changing the rules on Australians who worked, saved and invested is wrong. These capital gains tax changes are a tax on aspiration that will hurt millions of Australians and the businesses that drive our economy. #ScrapTheCGTHeist Contact your MP: https://t.co/Ofez6RMD3e #auspol

[Dave Hughes @DHughesy]

Can anyone argue against my idea that we need all govt expenditure at all levels, council, state, federal, on a public register, accessible to all? ASIO and sensitive defence stuff not itemised but the rest, completely itemised. The technology is available. Bring it all into the light. And make it real time. As it’s spent it goes on the register. We see what every dollar is used on. Will cut corruption immediately by ninety percent. Also we will see who is getting over paid. They hide it because they know it’s wrong. Let everyone walk in the light.

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

@OneNewsAu This is unacceptable

[Sentinet Radar @Sentient_Radar]

Openweights are here to stay