Sentinel Earth

Global signals. Early tremors. Watching the Earth’s fault lines move. Truth hides in plain sight. We explore the signals and connect the dots.

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Signal: Insurance retreat is accelerating in climate-exposed regions.

Data: Global insured catastrophe losses now average ~$100B+ per year according to Munich Re. Insurers such as State Farm have paused new home policies in parts of California.

Implication: Insurance availability is becoming an early indicator of climate-driven economic risk.

Explore: Munich Re catastrophe loss data.

#EarthSignal #RiskSignal

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If healthcare jobs growth slows, it could be a leading signal of economic weakness and future unemployment spikes.

Keep an eye on this

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New Indicator: US Healthcare Jobs Growth

April’s #NonFarmPayrolls surprised to the upside: +177k jobs vs 152k avg.

Federal govt jobs fell (-9k, as expected), but healthcare surged again: +51,000 jobs in April alone.

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Why this matters:

- Healthcare demand is rising as the US population ages.
- Fertility replacement rates are falling = fewer workers to support older generations.
- GOP eyeing Medicaid cuts under Trump 2.0.

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Have we just seen some brave ‘blood on the streets’ investing or can we expect a new wave of fear to grip the markets. Time will tell and this is a great indicator to watch closely.

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‘The Market Pulse’ - CNN Fear and Greed Index

This single number blends 7 market behaviour signals into a ‘market sentiment’ number telling us what emotion is driving the market - greed or fear?

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Extreme Fear can mean opportunity is hiding in the panic. Extreme Greed can be the calm before the shakeout. Neither tells you exactly what’s next, but both reveal how the crowd is feeling right now.

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The PolyPolls indicator does it again!

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The PolyPolls Indicator

Category: Multi Type: Wildcard

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market platform that allows punters to bet on the outcome or current events like elections.

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So what are the people predicting and what can we expect to see in May? Well, we can expect Aussies to vote Labour and retain Albanese as Prime Minister (96%), Lee Jae-myung will be the next president of South Korea (74%) and as for the Pope…

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Pietro Parolin is what the people are predicting. Let’s see if they are right.

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@KobeissiLetter ❤️ this indicator. Def one to keep an eye on

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Of course, these are just ‘feelings’. But feelings tend to influence behaviour and manifest into outcomes. Is this a tremor of a recession earthquake to come? It certainly ‘feels’ that way.

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The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Category: Economic (US) Type: Vitals

A monthly statistic between 1-100 reflecting how Americans FEEL about the economy. 80+ suggests confidence, below 70 means growing uncertainty and anything around 50 is…..well… is not good.

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There is no mystery as to what is driving these feelings. Recession worries, tariff uncertainty and fears of rising inflation. In fact American consumers now anticipate prices to rise more than 6.5% over the next 12 months.