Moony

| Germany | 20+ | Solar Science + Spaceweather Enthusiast | Gamer | #ActuallyAutistic

[Moony @SeshSad]

The two only things in life that give me peace daily.
Thanks for cuddling me every night, when I’m all nervous in bed, fearing what tomorrow might bring. Thanks for putting louder than my thoughts can destabilize me. I love you 💕

[Moony @SeshSad]

holy fuck RIP Oliver Tree

[Moony @SeshSad]

@doktornihil @landon_wx @Vincent_Ledvina atleast not a complete miss

[Dr. Tamitha Skov @TamithaSkov]

The NASA and NOAA model prediction runs show two possibilities: a fast, near direct hit (early June 8) and a slower, near flanking blow (mid-day June 8). It all depends upon how the coming storm interacts with the solar wind on its way to Earth. Nearby fast wind from multiple coronal holes will also play a role in deflecting and possibly tilting the structure on its side as it travels.

[Dr. Tamitha Skov @TamithaSkov]

If the NASA model is correct, we could be looking at a G3+ level storm. If NOAA is more correct and we get a slower, flanking blow, we will likely see a shorter G2 level storm. Of course, all of this depends upon whether the magnetic field orientation in the coming storm points southward (which we cannot predict before arrival). The previous set of storms this week hardly had any southward pointing field. That is why they fizzled out.

[Moony @SeshSad]

@SNHWx huh? the BZ hasnt dipped in over an hour.

[Moony @SeshSad]

@LoveMilkyWay12 @JAtanackov To me it doesnt look earth facing at all, what makes you think that? (maybe i oversaw smth)

[Moony @SeshSad]

@Vincent_Ledvina my european mind trying to convert cdt into utc

[Jure Atanackov @JAtanackov]

Heads up! SWPC as issued a G3 WATCH for June 4th and 5th!

[Vincent Ledvina @Vincent_Ledvina]

Multiple Earth-directed CMEs and an X-class solar flare this morning. Space weather has really heated up today, and there are chances for mid-latitude aurora tomorrow (Thursday night) due to the forecasted impact of the M9.5 CME.

Additional impacts may arrive from the
M7.8 and X1 eruptions. AR 4455 still has energy for more flares, so the bonanza of space weather activity may just be getting started, we'll see!

Update from when I recorded this video: NOAA SWPC has released their CME model likely incorporating the M9.5 and X1 eruptions. A G3 watch has been issued for tomorrow.

[Moony @SeshSad]

@Sir5leeps @Vincent_Ledvina im also asking myself this 😂

[Moony @SeshSad]

@e_philalethes @JAtanackov weird. do you think with all the cmes en route G3 is a plausible guess? to me the cmes all on their own dont look tooooo crazy but its 3 now :D

[Moony @SeshSad]

@e_philalethes @JAtanackov it did look like a little puff only on suvi195, did much ejecta leave?

[Moony @SeshSad]

@JAtanackov you wrote this as we have an X flare. this region is iconic 😂

[Moony @SeshSad]

@JAtanackov bulk going northwest?

[Moony @SeshSad]

@NorthernSkies5 Does the M9 related CME look faint to you too?

[Moony @SeshSad]

@NorthernSkies5 https://t.co/hXjsTcbjdm
Noaa confirms, but im unsure the trajectory is in our favour, hence my sceptisism :D

[NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center @NWSSWPC]

Another R2-Moderate solar flare occurred at 07:00 UTC from Region 4455, this one an M7.7 class. Ejecta can clearly be seen in solar imagery, so we are anticipating an associated CME becoming visible in coronagraph imagery in a few hours.

[Moony @SeshSad]

@NorthernSkies5 CME is visible, altough it looks like it goes well north and west to me. You can see it spread over the northern hemisphere but not southern, what do you think?

[Moony @SeshSad]

@chunder10 Wise :-) As a newgen spaceweather enjoyer i cling to complexities too much

[Moony @SeshSad]

@chunder10 I just saw Solarham post that if any eruption, its likely minor and he didnt post a follow up, so i didnt really look into it further. 😅 Im confused by the Sunspot in general, to me it doesnt look particulary complex but it keeps churning out flares