Elizabeth

Member of the RNC. All tweets are my own, do not represent any specific organizations. Made this account as a Teenager, but got it back so figure I'll use it.

[The Calvin Coolidge Project @TheCalvinCooli1]

🚨New: Ken Paxton leads in an internal poll in the 2026 Texas Senate Race

🔴 Ken Paxton: 48%
🔵 James Talarico: 45%
🟡 Ted Brown: 3%
⚪️ Undecideds: 4%

Pollster; Pulse Decision Desk
Date: 9/24-27
Voters: 800 Likely Voters

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

Yeah this is real, as I've been saying for like a month now internals have been Paxton +3-5

[Red Eagle Politics @RedEaglePatriot]

🚨 TX GOP Internal:

🔴 Paxton 48%
🔵 Talarico 45%
🟡 Brown 3%
⚫️ Undecided 4%

What to make of this? Well, you don’t release an internal if it’s not good news or a fundraising push poll. And Paxton doesn’t need any more money.

Also, given how Talarico’s campaign is acting, I’d wager their internals look like this too.

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

As I've been saying.

[Ryan James Girdusky @RyanGirdusky]

I will just say that I've seen internal polling in a safe R seat and the Republican Congressman is doing basically as well as they did in 2024. Marginal movement.

Probably an outlier, but wasn't doom and gloom

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

Sherrod Brown was a senator for 18 years, and he can't even get over 45% in a blue environment; Husted is fine

[Gold Bar Bob @SenGoldBars]

Oh ok this changes my calculus a bit...

[Ye 🇻🇦 @RWPopulism]

Here's the actual story: A hung jury failed to convict someone for a child sexual abuse charge. The child victim did not want to testify again, so Paxton got him to plea to indecent assault and admit to the crime and got the maximum jail time for the charge. Fuck off.

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

As someone who works for the RNC; you are full of shit.

[Red Lion Politics @lion_politics]

The vibes on the ground are the worst I’ve seen in my life. No one wants to promote candidates, no one wants to knock doors, no one wants to do shit. Attendance for any right wing event is at all time lows anywhere I go. Thank you Donald Trump for ruining it for us… and handing the country over to socialism.

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

People forget the 2022 grifts I swear

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - Texas polls

Governor
🔵 Gina Hinojosa 49%
🔴 Greg Abbott (Inc) 45%

Senate
🔵 James Talarico 49%
🔴 Ken Paxton 43%

2024 Trump +13.7

ReconMR/Siena #B - LV - 9/11

[Real Political Data @RealPData]

2,977 Americans got killed, and your first instinct is mocking the idea of remembering and never forgetting the horrors of that day.

You immediately follow it up by trying to score cheap political points.

Kindly go fuck yourself.

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

Lol. Lmao even

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Change Research poll | 9/7-9/9

Florida statewide races 2026

Florida Governor
🟦David Jolly 47%
🟥Byron Donalds 44%
——
US Senate
🟥Ashley Moody 47% (incumbent)
🟦Angie Nixon 47%
——
Trump favorables (FL)
❌-10 (53-43)

Link to poll: https://t.co/tvCZzQSrRH

[Republicans @Republicans]

So we’re getting round 2 of this?

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

Nah

[Real Texan Politics ✝️🇺🇸 @RealTXPolitics]

Does Fetterman resign before the end of the month?

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

Just like you betrayed your voters by choosing to abadon your district to go viral by challenging Kevin McCarthy, how'd that work out?

[David Giglio @DavidGiglioCA]

@TheCalvinCooli1 This is why you can't govern or create systemic change through executive order. Voters ,knew this, which is why they gave Republicans full control of Washington to implement the agenda they ran on.

Instead they betrayed us all in favor of fighting wars for foreign nations.

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

You abadoned your district so you could run a pony show against McCarthy, you're the last one to be saying this.

[David Giglio @DavidGiglioCA]

Free Milo!

[CA ET Nerd @earlyvotedata]

That’s huge for Republicans, as these voters are also getting missed in polling as the recent primary polling has shown.

BUT these voters also have to turn out…that’s the key thing.

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

And Don't trust Kalshi

[Red Eagle Politics @RedEaglePatriot]

Three lessons:

1) Do not dump the opposition research file before the primary

2) Do not tell people to NOT cross over (if anything, quietly do the opposite)

3) Do not trust the polls

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

A reminder, DO NOT TAKE BETTING MARKETS SERIOUSLY

[Real Political Data @RealPData]

You've had a bunch of stupid takes and responses, but this might be the most incoherent garbage you've put out (and that's saying a lot).

1. This claim that Michigan is not really a battleground state is just about the most insane thing you've ever said. Just because Michigan wasn't really that completive from 1992-2012, that doesn't mean it's magically not a battleground now. It's a battleground now because coalitions and America changed significantly in the last ten years.

That's like saying Colorado is still a swing state because it was closely contested from 2004-2016, and it's going to revert back to that after Trump is gone. That's of course an insane argument, but it's one you're making.

2. Trump didn't win Michigan because 'antiwar populism' or whatever you're saying. This is a myth people have been trying to push onto Trump 2016. The reality is while many former Democrats that were more skeptical of foreign intervention did break for Trump because of some of his skepticism, it wasn't anywhere as widespread as people think it is.

In fact, voters in 2016 actually trusted CLINTON more on foreign policy, and voters that had foreign policy as their number one issue overwhelming broke for her. Yes, even in Michigan. Trade was the main issue that resonated with voters in Michigan, NOT forcing policy.

But even if you completely ignore this, why didn't Bush win Michigan in 2000? People forget about this, but Bush was more of the anti-interventionist/anti-establishment candidate in the race, especially compared to Gore at the time. For Christ's sake, Bush said on the debate stage we need to stop nation-building. According to this logic, Bush should've won Michigan in 2000, but he didn't.

Man, it's as if things are more complicated than just a generic 'muh populist' talking point.

3. Michigan was seen as a battleground state in 2000 and 2004. While it didn't end up a total nail biter like Florida, both campaigns both times invested a good amount of time and money into the states, with people at the time calling Michigan a battleground.

4. Mike Rogers lost by a whopping .3% in 2024, and that was with multiple bullshit "Independent" candidates running. And not just a Green Party candidate, you had the Libertarians, Constitution and Natural Law in it. Without these other candidates, Mike Rogers probably would've won.

5. You keep fixating on Oakland County, which again you had multiple bullshit candidates running that likely took voters away from Rogers. But, you conveniently don't mention counties that Rogers over performed Trump in margin wise like Washtenaw, Kent and Ottawa Counties (similar type of counties like Oakland).

6. This is where things completely fall apart and become even a more incoherent mess. Not a single person was saying the Democrats as a whole were going to abandon El-Sayed. The argument about party unity is surrounding two completely separate things.

Firstly is the idea that El-Sayed needed to have a clear and decisive win over everyone to show he has a mandate and a strong grip of the party. He didn't get that since he barely won with under 50%, and clearly would've lost to Stevens in a 1v1 without McMorrow being on the ticket. The second point is how many of the more moderate Democrat types will simply not vote or straight up vote for Rogers. Polling strongly suggests this as a serious problem for El-Sayed, and even interviews with Stevens voters (which I get isn't everything) shows that El-Sayed has a bunch of catching up.

7. Here's the actual arguments for Mike Rogers winning and potentially being favored right now (not a guaranteed favorite, just simply favored right now, which can absolutely change):

-Polling shows mike Rogers in a very strong position against El-Sayed, which many of these same polls dramatically overstated his support of the primary
-Rogers didn't have to go through a brutal shitfest of a primary
-The Democrat primary was a complete bloodbath, and ended up being way closer than anyone expected or projected
-Mike Rogers starts off with a real CoH advantage over him, and this doesn't include the huge outside spending advantage he will have
-El-Sayed only has three months to not just rally the Democrat electorate, but also appeal to the general electorate for November

8. Betting markets can sometimes be predictive, but most of the time they're more closer to being merely reactive. Since the primary last night, Rogers has surged in the betting odds

Do I have to keep going?

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

You're a poster, cite actual polls, not the fucking betting odds which are manipulated by who dumps the most money into it; Jesus Christ.

[Mark Mitchell, Honest Pollster @honestpollster]

@RealPData No, Rogers isn't the favorite because Rogers isn't the favorite.

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

@RayZittoX @TheCalvinCooli1 Ok then why didn't Biden and his DOJ release it? They charged Trump federally on J6 and the like, but just chose not release and charge Trump on Eipstein? Since it apparently magically exists.

[Elizabeth @SexyPWriter]

@BillyBoBilly22 @RayZittoX @TheCalvinCooli1 First off, not the eipstein files. Second off, a woman who immediately went on TV to gloat is hardly one i trust since as a woman myself, I wouldn't go ans gloat if my abuser was only sentenced to pay me since it was a non criminal case.