Sh4deX

Cryptocurrency life

#bitcoin

[Sh4deX @Sh4deX]

My vision 🤷‍♂️ #Bitcoin

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

Altcoins

1. The cycle
2. The COVID-2020 crash & run after
3. Altcoins right now

The COVID-2020 crash.

Unbelievable nukes in a very short time period, deeper than anyone could imagine, and empty order books.

A massive rally followed for Bitcoin in 2020.

Let me explain my thoughts of where we are and my plan. 👇

1. Stage of the current crypto cycle:

This part, I went over a couple of times already. It’s simple: Bitcoin runs 90% of the cycle, and Bitcoin dominance runs with it while most altcoins get destroyed.

Only in the very last part of the cycle, when bitcoin has its usual last leg (2nd leg into new highs), dominance breaks down and altcoins have their ‘altseason’.

We’re now right at that stage, bitcoin price action-wise, dominance already breaking down a bit, and Ethereum started to rally and also ethbtc reclaiming the macro range low.

Important to understand is that most assets follow very similar range and cycle structures with different stages.

1. Bull (higher highs and lows)
2. Bear (lower highs and lows)
3. Accumulation (break range low, downtrend stops and moves into equal highs/lows)
4. Disbelief (reclaim range low, print initial higher high)
5. Bull (higher highs)

Early signs:

> Dominance cracking down at key zone
> Ethereum rallying to new highs
> ethbtc reclaiming macro range low
> Many altcoins across the board reclaiming range lows as well

If you look at the ethereum/bitcoin chart, you can see that stage 4 formed and that we had a mini cycle and fakeout below the range low. But prices are now trying to reclaim the retest.

Looking at many altcoins right now, they’re in a similar position: macro cycle reclaimed the range low into stage 4 and are now retesting those range lows.

The exact similar setup as we took a long on earlier with Ethereum: https://t.co/myCpIQB03Y

So, right as historically the cycle turns in favor of Altcoins, we:
- Have a bearish breakdown of BTC.D
- Have EHTBTC showing bullish macro signs
- Have a lot of Altcoins sitting in stage 4, the stage before stage 4. Bullish market structure on macro + macro range low reclaims.

Lets continue with the COVID-2020 similarities for Altcoins.

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

In Bitcoin's cycle, while everyone is eager to make some money inside a 1-2 year window, zooming out and watching the real cycle (not the 4y BTC cycle for ants) unfold is how you make money and also keep it

The REAL cycle is as simple as it can get: time

Price is only the measure you use when time is consumed. So better use this equation always if you want to compound your wealth: time > price

2014/15 and 2021/22 were the last SHMITA years, and the next one is due 2028/29 at a 2550 days interval (cycle)

Now, the only question would be: is 2028 going to be left translated and have a blow off top early, and then the cyclical correction..

OR

Is it going to be more like 2021 with the early top, and then a big distribution for 8-10 months. Time will show the price, but don't forget the INTERMISSION😌

What I am most certain of, is that the altcoin market WILL have a 2021 kind of altseason in 2028/29, but in the next intermission we should have a big clense in this space to make room for those alts that survived, to shine

My plan is already in motion, 20% in cash and building the cash position for the intermission, to be early again for the next SHMITA year

Because you can be wrong about price on the low timeframe, as everyone is, but if you use time, your positioning would serve you well over the long run

And the long run is what brings wealth. The sprints should be rarely used, because the fatigue would wear on you and some day, you would quit and/or give your wealth back to the market.

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

/ Bitcoin & Altcoins

Historically, altcoins underperform for about 90% of the cycle while Bitcoin dominance rises.

Only in the last leg does dominance drop and altcoins start to run. That’s where we are now, and we already saw the start in the last weeks, with Ethereum and the big caps leading the way.

> I still believe there's a very high probability (never a certainty) that this will happen. If Bitcoin and the market topped here like in 2021, it would be with a very different context.

Here you can see:

- Bitcoin dominance only drops in the second leg of Bitcoin into ATHs
- At the Bitcoin top (blue square), dominance is usually already on the floor after a downtrend

Right now, we just broke down.

/ Money flow

Here you can see the Bitcoin chart, the 'Total 3' chart (majors), and the 'Others' chart (altcoins minus majors).

All show the same cycle stages and range structure. In past cycles they played out the same way, just with a lag — Bitcoin first, then majors, then the rest of the altcoins.

But they always catch up and complete.

If the market were to top here, it would be with a very different context compared to previous cycles.

Here you can see how they all played out their own cycle and range structures when Bitcoin topped in 2021.

So far, the market is moving like it always does.

Ethereum looks bullish and ready for new highs, many altcoin charts show stage 3 bottoms, and Bitcoin started its 2nd leg into new highs while dominance broke down.

Sure, after the weekly swing high failure, we could see more downside or chop short/medium term (I don’t try to time that), but in the bigger picture, I don’t see the sense in comparing a bullish support/resistance flip with one that failed — the context is completely different.

- They can always fail, as there is no certainty
- But probability-wise, it is in favor of the bulls that it leads to continuation
- Probability-wise wise that the cycle is not topped based on the context is also in favor of the bulls
- Late cycle; ensure you took profit / are not as exposed as before anymore imo.

[Osemka @Osemka8]

ETH has outperformed alts like this on only 3 different occasions in history.
TOTAL3es/ETH ratio entering an oversold area on RSI which means ETH is leading vs. altcoins into areas of extremes.

ELI5: ETH runs first, then altcoins.

You can see only one outcome from this.

[Maelius @MaeliusCrypto]

ETH/OTHERS outperforming in a "zero f**" given fashion.

Just see what happens when the top is in and money rotates to others.

Now it's not the moment to be fearful, but to celebrate, as this is a prerequisite for a broad-based altszn.

More aggressive the outperformance, larger the expansion afterwards.

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

Is the Bitcoin 4 year cycle still intact, boss?

There is no Bitcoin 4 year cycle, son🤓

Bitcoin was released into the wild at the end of a secular bear market. So let's talk real cycles, instead of 4y cycles in an echo chamber called crypto

You can be just an investor, or a crypto founder, or a business man, but if you don't follow the real liquidity cycle, you are as good as any fool pissing against the wind.

I keep watching bros charting GOLD or metals, confusing the commodity cycle with stagflations or lost decades or "sEcULaR bEaR fOr cRyPToS bRO"

I shall ease your pain with one chart: SPX/GOLD

Now that the intro is done, I got rid of snobs and "inteligent" and "serious investors" (because I'm so "arrogant") meaning the trad-fi forever poors, which is 90% of this place

We can get down to it...

1. Cycles always repeat, but in a different manner
In the chart bellow you can see that given enough time, the patterns, while different every time, they tend to behave the same

✅first signs of exhaustion: 1929(30); 1966(extended); 2000(01)
✅secular bear: 10-12 years - SPX vs GOLD puts it's bottom
✅resuming upward

2009 was the last bottom. You can see that, while people scream GOLD overperforming right and left, are actually wrong since 2009, and we are nowhere near the secular top which repeats, in a timing manner, and should end somewhere in 2034/35 for the cycle to be complete

2. But why should the cycle complete, bro? And what is the cycle, really?

Little flower of the moon, the cycle is US. Not the United States.. it is us, humans.

We drive the cycles. We are not in The Matrix. We are The Matrix. Every human is a line of code in the Matrix. You cannot escape The Matrix, for you are.. The Matrix!

We are creatures made out of fear and greed, and as long as we live on this planet like this, nothing will ever change. Only if we morph into another form of life, like a humanoid robot after we had a DNA fusion with AI or.. you know.. we all die tragically..

If not, nothing really changes.. ever!

So what does this mean for

3. Bitcoin (and crypto)
Do you think Bitcoin got released into our financial system, at the exact bottom in the markets? At the exact ending of the secular bear market? At the exact 54 year inflation cycle bottom (Dewey and Dakin), after the next 54y cycle started? At the exact bottom level of trust in banks and financial institutions?

It might been a gamble, but it was the perfect timing to launch a gamble like that, that was tried since the 80's, but ups.. failed for the second time..

Wait what.. what do you mean second time, boss?

Little flower.. Henry Ford tried doing the same thing with an "energy coin that would replace gold and stop wars" (google search that) in 1921!

FUCKING 1921!!

Looks like 3rd time works. First two attempts lacked something very vital: the internet era. It was the peak of the internet era that made it work. We could all communicate borderless since the Dot Com bubble.

And you know what would be nice?

a fucking beer.. just gimme a second..

.......
.......
.......

Ahhhhh!

Now, while people in crypto buy up all the stupid shit for the wrong reasons, because getting rich by being stupid will someday bite you in the ass, because the market rewards the boring, patient, somewhat rational sons of bitches

From time to time they throw a bone with a memecoin or a company, BUT the market always takes that money back in the future from guys that got rich fast.

So let the speculation aside and focus on those cryptos (besides Bitcoin) that already have trad-fi attention: de-fi big caps (starting with ETH), ISO coins, the coins who get ready for (or already have) ETFs

And ride this REAL CYCLE to it's exhaustion. Then fuck off to Mars if you really want to.

There is no secular bear market for cryptos
There is no another 2008 could come next year
There is no 4 year cycle in cryptos
There is no this time is different

There will be bumps on the road, because the market needs to shake out the majority of serious smart elegant investoors, and because of that just press follow and ride with me if you want

Not sorry for the swearing. Daddy needed to express some rage.

[JD 🇵🇭 @jaydee_757]

Altseason - Glad "some" of us bought the bottom/crashes of $BTC riding BTC Dominance!

Also glad we made RETIREMENT GAINs off the Shitcoins on the way up!🫡

I believe SHITCOIN season is coming! Those BTC haters who got REKT w/shitcoins will be our EXIT LIQUIDITY again!🤦‍♂️😂🤣

#WeNeedDumbMoneyAsExitLiquidityLOL
#DoNotKnowWhatYouHold
$XRP $ETH $DOGE $HBAR #XRPArmy #XRPCommunity

[Super฿ro @SuperBitcoinBro]

Lots of calls for a bitcoin dominance top here.

Once again: the top is not in for BTC.D. Not even close.

While alts have likely bottomed, Bitcoin's market cap will grow much faster as bitcoin enters price discovery while alts work through significant resistance.

[JD 🇵🇭 @jaydee_757]

Influencers who HATES BTC should NOT be trusted! If you bought more $BTC compared to shitcoins, you'd be DOMINATING!

Then move BTC in shitcoins during BTC.D RISE to MAXIMIZING gains!

I'll MOVE more BTC in shitcoins soon! Shitcoin season is coming!💪🙏

300 RTs, I'll post ALTS I'll buy w/BTC on X!

Patreon/Discord - I will post a more detailed BTC.D chart for you guys in the coming weeks! Will let you know what altcoins I will be buying more using BTC (will not buy any altcoins using USD!)

#BTCisKING
$XRP $DOGE $HBAR #XRPArmy #XREPCommunity

[Rod @Crypto_R0D]

$BTC DOMINANCE

Weekly bearish divergence, here we are ✍️

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

This chart changed my life and will continue to change my life until 2030+

SPX vs M2 money supply

We had another 20y under resistance, just like between '73 to '94 -> '02 to '23

I think we go for the wick fill until 2026, and after that we have the expansion for 5+ years, just like last cycle

This means M2 did its thing for 20y, the S&P will do the rest, and some more, in 5

Yes, mid-low caps will overperform from 2027 on, but remember this chart for now. Cheers fam🥂

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

The Hidden Top: my 2025 market view

Years later, after I've posted my January 2023, 2024 and mid 2024 (see bellow), I can still see top callers everywhere, at every local resistance, at every bearish narrative

So I've decided to atack this particular topic: YOU WON'T BE ABLE TO TIME THE PERFECT TOP

TL;DR of my view: H1 2025 higher highs -> H2 2025, lower highs

As per usual,
1. We're starting with the S&P index

Since 2023, I've projected the potential top (not cycle top, but a mini-cycle, into the 2030+ cycle top) at around 5800-6100$ area (1.618 fib)

2 years later we are here. But what comes next, my base case, is that from this 6k area (we maybe go 2-500$ more, doesn't matter) we start the downtrend into Q2-Q3, and before Q4 everyone will be bullish again, just like in the last 2 years, but everyone will be dissapointed

I think a lower high on the S&P will be the case.

Now, the case with FED's rates, as I was saying for a long time, 3-5 rate cuts are not bearish, but after that we should watch when the CPI creeps back up from the lows (it started) and The FED starts to pause rates again!!

2019: we had 2 FOMCs with rates paused - December and February (we all know what happend in March 2020)

Now: higher rates, maybe a 3-fold pause is due.

IF THIS IS THE CASE, and another global shitstorm happens, everyone will look at the pandemic event, rates, probably some trillions printed, and will say the REAL BULLMARKET starts, into H2 2025, because we dodged the bullet again

And that is when the dissapointments start. Lower high in Q4, going down more into 2026 - everyone rekt (and then the real fun starts!!)

In this part of the cycle, I'm not interested in the DXY or yields anymore, I'm only interested in the stupid euphoria that comes next.

2. So, let's get to Bitcoin

When rates paused in 2019, after 3 cuts, BTC had a 63% rally, during the soft landing narrative - BUT - that was a different part of the cycle, we are now later into the cycle than back then

So if my base case happen, BTC has a little room left, based on fibs (we are now at 1.272), 1.4 is at 127k, 1.618 is at 173k (it can also not touch it like in the last cycle)

If rates are cu 25-50 bps from March, then I would not worry and the cycle could be longer, which means I stay spot for longer a build a bigger cash position.

But contrary to my 2023 and 2024 FULL BEAR HITLER, which you all witnessed, for me, now it's time start building a FULL HITLER CASH POSITION, as euphoria will start kicking in with this "soft landing" and other narratives.

I think that if rates are cut aggressively, like 100-200 bps in one FOMC, you know this comes with something on the side. Something not good - I WILL NEVER BECOME A DOOMSTER EITHER WAY!!

And if a global event is coming along with this, everyone will scream BUY BUY BUY - REAL BULL IN THE WINTER!! LOW RATES LIKE IN 2020 BRO - and they will all be wrong. Let's see.

My focus rn will not be on SPX and BTC, ranges are on the charts, my focus is on ETH and alts, because every cycle ends in euphoria, and all I see is scared little girls on Twitter.

4. The most important chart in crypto
XRP is also a good gauge, but I'm focusing on this one: ETHBTC - some good analysts on Twitter pointed out that range, which is a good confluence with my simple use of fib retracements

This is a good example of how people follow narratives and forget to look on different charts to correlate how liquidity is moving in the whole asset class.

This means ETH betas will go ballistic - if you also watch the SOLETH chart (which I also posted a long time ago) you will see that it outperformed for 2 years straight - next phase of the cycle, DOWN!

Cycle targets for ETH - dunno man, put some fibs up and see - I do not own it, I jumped directly to betas, de-fi shit, gaming, AI, memes, because I've already made most of my money with BTC since the bottom

Also check out my cycle post on BTC.D:
https://t.co/7Kbg3LNMzz

4. Total 3 chart - what most fail to understand is that BTC.D looks toppish, but they don't look at total crypto market cap without BTC and ETH, and watch some big caps like: DOT AVAX FIL SAND LTC UNI LINK HBAR etc.

Big players that are not even at the last bull market top, with the TOTAL3 at it. The only thing that pumped in crypto was vaporware tokens, full speculation, rotation from other protocols, and that's it

So my base case for alts, in the next phase, liquidity from outside is coming for eth, de-fi, utility, big players etc. - just watch the XRP chart and you will understand!

Moreover, I think total3 will catch up BTCs moves:

So maybe, just maybe, because everyone is a BTC maxi rn, it's time to focus on strong alts! BTC is doing this pa at a new ATH, while Total3 lags. Now we have trad-fi catalysts for coins (ETFs requests everywhere)

Also maybe, just maybe, if a lower high is on the table for H2 2025, perhaps Total3 makes a higher high - will see

And actually the liquidity is coming for trusted protocols, not from degens, but from institutional investors - the flood gates are already set (ETH ETF)

As always, my charts will not happen with 100% accuracy, some things will be different, but for me, all that matters is positioning: now out 40% from BTC, rotated to alts, 10% cash position which will increase gradually this year (btw I had almost 0% cash positions in 2023 and 2024, with all the money I made, I just reaccumulated more and more).

My posts are public, never deleted a tweet - maybe you should revisit my last market views and see how things developed, to understand that I'm adapting my play as time goes by.

Time > price

I will update my view in the summer maybe, but some of you guys were asking me why don't I do something in English, to go deeper into monthly and weekly updates

So I did.

For 2 years I've been posting all my views, no charge, no paid groups, no VIP class, no course etc.

So for those who want to stay close to my daily/monthly adjustments on charts, here it is:
https://t.co/lxXweLVmqg

What it’s not:
- a paid group
- the end of me posting free on X
- a day trading course
- a get rich quick scheme
- a pump and dump discord scheme

What it is:
- a monthly breakdown from my part, into the charts, to see where we are in the cycle
- 3-5 monthly analyses to cover deep dives into: SPX, BTC, alts, other stocks, DXY, yields, rates, other indicators

Basically I don’t do lessons or courses on how markets work, or ‘how to find the next 100x’, or how to ‘forever solve your money problem’ - these things work for a while, then they don’t - because the market is forward looking - nothing is set into stone! - market adapts - I will too

We also have a discord channel where we talk daily, help each other learn and adapt, chart together. I also hired 4 other people to help with the website, discord, research, so I could stay on my lane and focus on charts

I will keep posting free on X as usual and I don’t recommend this to anyone that hasn’t made money with my free content! If you ask “why should you pay x$ a month for this?” my answer will always be “you shouldn’t”

God bless you! Be a winner, with or without me!

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

I, too, am a believer in the real cycles

If 2020=1987, then secular cycle top in 2032

If 2022-1987, then secular cycle in 2034

Check out next year and..

Check out SHMITA years. Did you also know that 1931/1932 was a SHMITA year?😇

[Charting Guy @ChartingGuy]

#BTC

i do not claim this idea, many ppl have posted it

especially the 1064 days bear market low to bull cycle top

but Rickus recently opened my eyes to the 852 day cycle and it aligns more with my topping timeframe around the March Eclipses, so i wanted to share

03/22/25 👀

[Charting Guy @ChartingGuy]

this is wild.

if it plays out $BTC.D should start dipping early December

as i said recently, its typically a month after price discovery

overlayed last 2 cycles fractals and we get a key bottom late April 2025

that is what i have projected for my altseason top for so long!

[Charting Guy @ChartingGuy]

here’s a chart showing how Total Lunar Eclipses aka Blood Moons 🌑 affect the crypto market

they’re typically associated with Lunar Cycles which is the bear market period for $BTC & crypto

the next one is in March 2025 where i have my cycle top and then we bottom ~ 1 year later

[Carl ₿ MENGER ⚡️🇸🇻 @CarlBMenger]

Welcome to #Bitcoin.

[Charting Guy @ChartingGuy]

added the Total Solar Eclipses to add more perspective ☀️ (green vertical lines)

they’re typically associated with Solar Cycles which is the bull market period for $BTC & crypto

we typically top in the transition area from a Solar Cycle to a Lunar Cycle and bottom around the last Total Lunar Eclipse in each Lunar Cycle

notice how in early 2026 - late 2028, the gap between Total Lunar Eclipses is larger than it usually is and that Solar Cycle has 3 Total Solar Eclipses that are not interrupted by Total Lunar Eclipses while the past ones and our current one only have 2

this is one of many reasons why i think next bull cycle will be our biggest ever

[Luca - Cryptic Trades @CrypticTrades_]

Yield Curve:

When the yield curve uninverts, bad narratives tend to pop up fast.

A wall of worry builds in the markets as anxiety over the economy grows, yet equity prices often keep climbing. It’s a classic setup where market makers take advantage, pushing stocks higher and everyone starts flipping bullish at the worst possible time.

Here I made a thread on the Yield Curve, when everyone was talking about a potential recession: 👇
https://t.co/Br0kG6WZrj

This false sense of security can lead to investors getting caught off guard when the real economic issues hit, AFTER 3-4 months of yield curve being back into positive territory.