As long as your idea of Sunni is restricted to just Gulf elites, of course you would think this. Palestine, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Algeria, Somalia, overwhelmingly Sunni. Even most of the Iraqi insurgency that gave Bush the original kick in the teeth were Sunnis
أي نقاش عن ٧ أكتوبر لازم يكون بمنتهى الحذر والجدية، وبقدر كبير من التواضع. نعم، العملية كشفت إخفاقات هائلة في المنظومة العسكرية والاستخباراتية الإسرائيلية، لكن هذا ما بقلل أبدا من الثمن الهائل اللي دفعه أهلنا في غزة. وبصراحة، في كثير من الأحيان، أكثر الناس احتفالا بالعملية هم ناس ما دفعوا أي ثمن، وبتلاقيهم بحكوا عن اللي صار وكأنهم بتابعوا مسلسلهم المفضل، مش وكأنهم بحكوا عن بشر فقدوا أهلهم وبيوتهم وكل شيء تقريبا. وفي فرق كبير بين إنك تدرك أهمية عملية عسكرية، وبين إنك تمجد الحرب وأنت قاعد مرتاح في بيتك. حتى النبي ﷺ نهانا عن تمني لقاء العدو، وأمرنا إننا نسأل الله العافية.
لكن مع ذلك، الإصرار على الحصول على جواب نهائي لسؤال "شو حقق ٧ أكتوبر؟" فيه قدر كبير من العبثية. مش لأن السؤال غير مشروع، وإنما لأن تداعيات العملية لسه بتتكشف، وإحنا لسه بعيدين عن استيعاب نتائجها السياسية والعسكرية والجيوسياسية. من حقنا نقيّم القرارات والنتائج حتى الآن، لكن في فرق بين تقييم حدث تاريخي وبين التصرف وكأن التاريخ انتهى وصار بإمكاننا إصدار حكم نهائي عليه.
ولعل في صلح الحديبية درس مهم بهذا السياق. كثير من الصحابة استثقلوا شروط الصلح، حتى عمر بن الخطاب رضي الله عنه تساءل عن سبب قبول المسلمين بهذه الشروط وهم على الحق. ومع ذلك، ربنا وصف الصلح بأنه فتح مبين، رغم إن كثيرا من نتائجه ما ظهرت إلا لاحقا. وطبعا، النبي ﷺ كان يوحى إليه، وما حدا اليوم بقدر يدعي نفس الضمان الإلهي، لكن العبرة هون هي محدودية الحكم البشري واستعجالنا في تقييم الأحداث.
وهذا بجيبني لسؤال لفيصل القاسم: هل كان من المنطقي إصدار حكم نهائي على الثورة السورية سنة ٢٠١٤ أو ٢٠١٦ أو حتى ٢٠٢٠، لما كان معظم العالم مقتنع إن الأسد رح يظل في الحكم؟ وقتها كان ممكن لأي شخص يشير إلى مئات الآلاف من القتلى وملايين المهجرين ويسأل: "شو حققت الثورة السورية؟" لكن في ديسمبر ٢٠٢٤، سقط النظام اللي كثير من الناس اعتبروا سقوطه مستحيل. وهذا ما بعني إن كل قرارات الثورة كانت صحيحة، أو إن الثمن الإنساني انمحى، لكنه بوضح إن الظروف اللي بنعيشها في لحظة معينة مش بالضرورة هي النهاية، وإن التاريخ مش ملزم يمشي وفق الجداول الزمنية اللي إحنا بنفرضها عليه.
أما بالنسبة لغزة، فأنا بشوف إن في سؤال أهم لازم كل مسلم وكل عربي يسأله: "شو الثمن اللي رح ندفعه مقابل هاي الخيانة؟" لأنه بينما الكل مشغول بحساب الثمن اللي دفعته غزة، قليل من الناس اللي بسألوا عن الثمن اللي ممكن تدفعه بقية المنطقة نتيجة تخليها عنها. ربنا سبحانه وتعالى بحذرنا في سورة الأنفال: "وَاتَّقُوا فِتْنَةً لَا تُصِيبَنَّ الَّذِينَ ظَلَمُوا مِنْكُمْ خَاصَّةً". ابن كثير بوضح إن الفتنة ممكن تمتد آثارها لغير الظالمين، خصوصا لما يكون في ناس قادرين على منع المنكر، لكنهم يتقاعسوا عن ذلك.
وهذا بذكرني بحديث السفينة، لما النبي ﷺ وصف ناس ركبوا سفينة، وقرر اللي في أسفلها يعملوا خرق في الجزء اللي هم فيه عشان يحصلوا على الماء. فوضح النبي ﷺ إنه إذا تركهم البقية، رح يهلكوا جميعا، وإذا منعوهم، رح ينجوا جميعا. العبرة واضحة: ما بتقدر تتجاهل الظلم والمخاطر اللي حواليك وتفترض إنك رح تظل بمنأى عن عواقبها. وهذا بالضبط اللي لازم تفهمه الأنظمة العربية، وخصوصا دول الخليج، اللي اعتمدت لعقود على ثرواتها وعلاقاتها مع واشنطن وترتيباتها الأمنية، وكأنها ضمانة لحمايتها من اضطرابات المنطقة. صحيح إن بعض هاي الدول قدمت مساعدات إنسانية ولعبت أدوارا دبلوماسية، لكن السؤال مش إذا عملت إشي، وإنما إذا عملت كل اللي كان بمقدورها، خصوصا أمام حجم الكارثة في غزة.
واليوم، مع التحولات اللي بتشهدها المنطقة والحرب اللي شملت إيران وإسرائيل والولايات المتحدة، بدأت تظهر هشاشة كثير من الضمانات الأمنية اللي اعتمدت عليها هاي الدول. وأنا مش بحكي إن التخلي عن غزة تسبب بكل هاي الأزمات، لكن اللي بصير بكشف خطورة الاعتقاد إنك ممكن تتعامل مع الاحتلال والظلم وكأنها مشاكل غيرك، وتفترض إنك رح تظل محمي من تداعياتها. وبعتقد إنه لو هاي الحكومات كانت مدركة حجم المخاطر اللي بتهدد أمنها واستقرارها، كان كثير منها تعامل مع غزة بطريقة مختلفة، وكان ممكن تكتشف إن الدفاع عن الفلسطينيين مش مجرد واجب ديني وأخلاقي، وإنما كمان مصلحة استراتيجية إلها.
وبالنهاية، أنا لا أدعي معرفة قضاء الله وقدره، لكن التحذير القرآني وحديث السفينة لازم يخلونا نراجع افتراضاتنا عن قدرتنا على النجاة من تبعات الظلم اللي بنسمح باستمراره. فالسؤال مش بس شو كلّف ٧ أكتوبر أهل غزة، وإنما كمان شو الثمن اللي ممكن تدفعه بقية المنطقة لأنها سمحت باستمرار كل هاي المعاناة في غزة، وما عملت ما يكفي لوقفها؟
لمن فاتته حلقة المعاكس أمس:
ماذا بقي من القضية الفلسطينية بعد ثلاث سنوات على عملية السابع من أكتوبر
بين ابراهيم حمامي ونضال السبع
https://t.co/CHJ4csq7ls
“American Muslim leadership decided that all of our values and interests were to be sacrificed in furtherance of opposing Israel” is a funny way of saying that Muslim Americans drew a red line over Islam’s third holiest site, and when his political buddies crossed it, he decided that the problem wasn’t their actions but the Muslims who refused to look the other way.
After Oct. 7, 2023 & the Gaza war, the American Muslim leadership decided that all of our values and interests were to be sacrificed in furtherance of opposing Israel, including the previous primary goal of being accepted.
The easiest way to make sense of this gibberish thread is to understand the history behind it.
Ismail Royer invested an enormous amount of time and effort (and I mean an ENORMOUS amount) trying to normalize right-wing figures like Robert P. George and Jennifer Bryson within the Muslim-American community, largely because he treats abortion and LGBT as the two defining priorities of Muslim political engagement.
Then October 7 happened, and almost all of the figures he had worked with took staunchly pro-Israel positions, effectively destroying whatever credibility he’d been trying to help them build within the Muslim community.
And rather than reconsidering his political priorities, questioning his judgment, or acknowledging the fundamental problem with the alliances he’d spent so much time cultivating, he instead decided that Palestine itself and Palestinian activism were the problem.
That’s the context in which his increasingly hostile or dismissive commentary on Palestine begins to make sense. It’s less about Palestine itself and more about his resentment toward a cause that exposed the contradictions in his own political project.
After 9/11 the American Muslim leadership decided that all of our values and interests were to be sacrificed in furtherance of being accepted. Since acceptance by Republicans was out of the question, that meant Muslim elected officials had to align their positions with Democrats,
Genocide Terminology Hides Capitalism & Imperialism.
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I think one of the reasons some Americans develop such intense parasocial relationships with politicians is that they’ve become accustomed to interpreting real-world politics through the lens of their favorite works of fiction, whether it’s The West Wing, The Handmaid’s Tale, or Harry Potter.
And you see it almost everywhere. Grown adults who should know better end up treating politicians like characters in a story, assigning them roles as heroes and villains, and interpreting political events through familiar narratives.
To be clear, there’s nothing inherently wrong with drawing parallels between fiction and reality, but the problem begins when those parallels become a substitute for independent judgment and people become so emotionally invested in the characters they’ve imagined that they lose sight of the politicians as they actually are.
@FikrAlJabarti@yousuf_tw I’m kinda hoping she and Kamala both run, just so we can watch the most demented civil war unfold online between their respective groups of sycophants
The woman who stood onstage at the DNC praising Kamala Harris for “working tirelessly to secure a ceasefire in Gaza,” while the Biden-Harris administration continued arming Israel, who took until March 2024 to publicly call what was happening in Gaza a genocide (after even Alex Jones was using the term), and who voted against cutting $500 million in military funding for Israel when even the likes of MTG (along with Tlaib and Ilhan) voted to cut it, is now being presented as the only person capable of leading a working-class movement against the oligarchy and transforming America?
And we’re supposed to pretend none of that happened because she’s since “changed her position”? Like there’s no need for any meaningful accountability for the political cover she provided, and we should all just fall in line behind her because she’s being marketed as the future of progressive politics?
It’s genuinely remarkable how quickly people are willing to overlook someone’s actual political record when they’re sufficiently invested in the image they’ve constructed around them.
AOC is the only candidate who can lead the working class movement to fight the oligarchy and transform America. We’re organizing across the country to build the grassroots support we need to win in 2028. Go to https://t.co/BHhCtjdjhz to sign the pledge.
The guy who borrowed George Wallace’s “segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever” line and replaced segregation with Israel is now using “racial representation” as a shield against accountability
CNN: Hakeem Jeffries responds to DSA supporters who chanted "You're next!" at victory party
"It was very interesting to me, as observed by others, that there was almost zero diversity in that crowd."
Link: https://t.co/kwBGnzYima
Just a reminder that in February 2024, after Chicago’s City Council passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, Jost’s co-host, Michael Che, joked that Gaza had called for a ceasefire in Chicago
SNL Weekend Update on El-Sayed and Schumer
Colin Jost: If I had just gone through the campaign he did, I don't think my first move would be, "get rid of the Jewish guy"
في خضم سيل الأخبار العاجلة، وما يصاحبه من قلق وحزن وغضب، ينبغي للمسلم أن يستحضر آيتين عظيمتين من كتاب الله تعالى.
الأولى قوله تعالى: ﴿لِلَّهِ الْأَمْرُ مِن قَبْلُ وَمِن بَعْدُ﴾
والثانية قوله تعالى: ﴿وَالْعَاقِبَةُ لِلْمُتَّقِينَ﴾
فالآية الأولى تذكرنا بأن الأمر كله لله، وأن تقلب الأحوال وتبدل موازين القوة لا يخرجان عن علمه وقدرته وتدبيره، مهما اشتد البلاء أو بدا المشهد مضطربا.
وأما الآية الثانية، فتذكرنا بأن العاقبة المحمودة للمتقين، وأن العبرة ليست بما تبدو عليه الأمور في لحظة عابرة، ولا بما نشهده من غلبة للباطل أو ضعف لأهل الحق. وليس في ذلك وعد بأن تنتهي كل محنة في الدنيا على النحو الذي نرجوه، فالعاقبة الأكمل والأبقى هي عند الله في الآخرة.
وما أحوجنا إلى استحضار هذين المعنيين في زمن تتسارع فيه الأحداث وتتقلب فيه الموازين، حتى يكاد المرء يجعل من كل خبر عاجل مقياسا للنصر والهزيمة، ومن كل انتكاسة نهاية للطريق.
فلا ينبغي أن تحملنا قسوة الواقع على اليأس، ولا أن تتحول ثقتنا بوعد الله إلى تواكل يقعدنا عن الأخذ بالأسباب وبذل ما نستطيع. بل علينا أن نثبت على الحق، وأن ننصر المظلوم بما نقدر عليه، وأن نتقي الله في مواقفنا وأقوالنا وأفعالنا، مدركين أن عجزنا عن إدراك الحكمة لا يعني غيابها، وأن ما نشهده اليوم ليس بالضرورة خاتمة المطاف.
فالأمر لله من قبل ومن بعد، والعاقبة للمتقين.
MATES IT IS OFFICIAL!
With a US airstrike the other day, Somalia (239 months) has now OVERTAKEN Afghanistan (238 months) as the longest war in American history!
And absolutely nobody notices for some reason
The foreign policy value of Abdul El-Sayed isn’t necessarily going to be in how directly he challenges Zionism or Israel. It’s going to be in whether he can actually deal a meaningful blow to Washington’s relationship with Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s regime in Egypt, particularly the political and military support that keeps it afloat. And that, in turn, could have consequences for Israel that go well beyond anything El-Sayed might say about Zionism.
However you look at the midterms, I think people are getting a little ahead of themselves in celebrating the supposed demise of the Republican Party.
What’s becoming increasingly interesting to me is the political opening emerging for people like Thomas Massie and MTG. Both can point to the fact that they saw where things were heading, openly defied Trump, warned about the consequences of his policies, and paid a political price for doing so. Massie lost his primary, MTG resigned from Congress, and now even Trump’s own VP is openly acknowledging that the war they opposed was a major reason Republicans lost.
I’m not suggesting that a Massie/MTG ticket is inevitable (or even that either will necessarily run), but the possibility of those two, or a broader political movement built around the same grievances, emerging as a serious force in 2028 shouldn’t be dismissed. There’s a struggle taking shape over what the Republican Party will look like after Trump, and those who can credibly claim to have opposed him before his policies became politically disastrous have a narrative that practically writes itself.
Meanwhile, Democrats seem perfectly content to celebrate their victory without confronting some uncomfortable questions about their own leadership. They may have just won control of Congress, but that doesn’t automatically mean voters have embraced Schumer, Jeffries, or the direction of the party itself.
And this is where I think people are overlooking something important. Remember how people poured into the streets celebrating Biden and Harris’s victory in 2020? Four years later, Harris lost to the very man everyone had been celebrating defeating.
Yes, I’m well aware that people have short memories and that two years is an eternity in politics (for all we know, Trump could escalate the war into something so catastrophic that it fundamentally changes the political landscape), but the point is that elections are not permanent political realignments, and rejecting one party is not the same thing as embracing the other.
Democrats will still have to contend with Trump and the limitations of a divided government, but they’ll also have two years to demonstrate what they intend to do with their newly won congressional majorities. And if they emerge from that period having offered voters little beyond continued opposition to Trump, while Republicans manage to produce new leadership that can point to having openly defied him and paid the price for it, Democrats will have some very uncomfortable questions to answer.
This is an absolutely insane thing for a sitting VP to post. Vance is openly blaming his own admin's war in Iran for this Republican electoral collapse, while citing voters' anger over America's relationship with Israel.
It may very well be that, in an effort to salvage whatever's left of his political future, Vance eventually goes further and breaks with Trump over the war, much like Hubert Humphrey belatedly distanced himself from LBJ over Vietnam in 1968.
And if he does, the irony of JD Vance doing what Kamala Harris refused to do with Biden over the genocide in Gaza would make her refusal to break with him look even more indefensible.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
@AvdullahYousef I think Vance is considering breaking with Trump to save his political career, betting that Trump's brand will be so toxic by 2028 that his endorsement would actually do more harm than good, as we saw last night