Shamus

No cute videos, no tik tok dances, no cleavage. I just bet on sports. DM's open

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

That might be it for my college basketball season. If so, it was one hell of a ride

537-450-12, 5.5% roi, 1.8% clv

999 plays. All 3rd party tracked on @betstamp.

Somehow still under 100 followers here, but a mini following starting on betstamp. To anyone I made a few bucks 🍻

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

As always all documented on @betstamp.

Lastly a reminder of caution. 16-1 is fun as hell, but in roughly 3000 documented plays I'm hitting ~52.5%. Keep things within reason if tailing.

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

I had a poor first week in cbb and despite not using X much at all I received some trolling-negative DM's during that time.

Fast fwd a week and now on a 16-1 run in last 17. Cheers to those still tailing and enjoying this ride. I only hope the trolls unfollowed before it turned.

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

I've got Oklahoma State rated about 12.35 pts higher. Throw in roughly 3.1-3.2 for home field advantage and my number is Ok State -15.5

I believe my OKST number is close to market and my Tulsa number is below market so in that regard more of a Tulsa fade

[giddyup210 @CHL7317]

@Shamus0Toole You mention power numbers. What line do your numbers make it? Are you high on Oklahoma state or more of a Tulsa fade?

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

To many this might sound crazy but I've got nearly 25 FCS schools with a higher power number than Tulsa. They really are that bad.

Oklahoma State on the other hand I see a nice buy low opportunity. Off one of the worst losses in school history and a bye to reset and lick wounds.

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

I don't know who needs to hear this but Tulsa sucks. This line movement from nearly two TD's to now under single digits is silly.

Last week Tulsa somehow jumped out 14-0 early on Navy. They also scored a late garbage time TD. The 50 mins in between Navy stomped them 42-3...

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

@matthewwinick and while not guards I think Gwath and Compton should be improved offensively as well.

Secret is out on Gwath but lets not forget how highly recruited Compton was. He's a serious talent and I believe capable of much more than we've seen to date

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

@matthewwinick I'd have to disagree with this.

Newman, Waters, Byrd, and Davis all above average efficiency players and my guess is 3 of those 4 (if not all) are better this year than last. I also expect DeGourville who gained some valuable experience last year to be better

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

Total yardage 453-95 edge for SDSU.

Stony Brook averaged 1.8 yards per rush and 1.8 yards per pass attempt. They had two plays of 10 yards or more all night. I don't think this is because the Aztecs are the steel curtain. Seawolves might just be awful

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

I don't want to be one of these guys who only talks about his wins, so here's a few words about one I was terribly wrong on.

Stony Brook losing 42-0 at SDSU and easily could argue the game wasn't even as close as that score indicates.

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

Bama State been getting screwed by the Zebras all night.

+21.5 a winner long ago but they were very live to win this game straight up. Andrew Body is an electric player and that's a really fun team.

Dilfer and UAB survived tonight but this will fall apart soon.

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

Yes in fairness both of those games FCS vs. FBS

I could've talked about St. Thomas outright over Lindenwood but I didn't figure that would draw as much interest. Another awful line and silly movement though

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

Tonight a reminder right off the bat of how weird FCS market can be. For example Duke and Ok State taking constant money from the open. I could argue even the openers didn't make sense and it was one way money from there. To the point I even added on with both dogs. Both easy W's

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

Not meant to be a victory lap. It's FCS football, I'm not a superhero haha. Point being don't sweat line movement in this market at all. Many of the ppl moving lines there don't know what they are doing.

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

Red flag warnings all over the place here for UIW.

O-Line was garbage and the numbers speak for themselves. Team rushing stats were even worse.

Plus Nicholls missed 2 chip shot FG's, you could argue game wasn't even as close as score shows.

[Pavelka’s Fat Uncle @pavelkasuncle]

Richie Torres, the last HS QB Frost signed at Nebraska, just finished his first start for Incarnate Word in a 20-6 loss. IWU was favored by 2 TDs coming into the game. OL struggled mightily.

23/35 / 175 yds
0 TDs / 3 INT
4 rush / -45 yds

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

As I said last week 2's and 3's WANT to be out there. They are hungry and highly motivated.

You want to value starters over backups in the regular season. Of course yes. Agree with that all day.

Teams steaming 3-4 points off that in preseason? Hard pass. In fact, fade it

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

Preseason NFL

Week 1: 9-4-1, +54.51% ROI
Week 2: 4-0, +135.1% ROI

Total: 13-4-1, +71.6% ROI

All 3rd party tracked on @betstamp

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

People diving into information on what teams are playing what starters for what length of time and valuing that. To me that's the inefficiency.

Starters don't want to be out there in August. They are out there b-c it's their job and they HAVE to be. They aren't giving 100%...

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

Similar regret with Lions tomorrow. They were as high as +4.5 a few days ago and that was the play. Again I gave it some serious thought, passed, and regret it. Won't play it at +2 though.

Currently considering GB, CLE, LAR, WSH

[Shamus @Shamus0Toole]

Falcons probably the play tonight but I missed the boat at +5.5. Gave it some serious thought at that point but didn't play anything and now regret it. Not going to play +3 though

Also passing on KC-SEA. Tons of movement on SEA but line moving through zero negates impact a bit