This might make me sound like the old guy yelling at clouds, but this is the stuff that keeps getting pushed to hundreds of thousands, even millions, of people now.
I get it. This is (sadly) part of the game now. I've even had to restructure how I tweet things so that they don't just get buried. I really miss the days of just tweeting whatever the hell came into my head at that exact moment and not having to spend time thinking about the best structure to make the tweet "interesting".
The algorithm rewards confidence, simplicity, and outcomes that sound life-changing. A lot of these people are running businesses and visibility matters. I’m not naive to that. Any promise of money is going to get people stopping on a tweet and the algo rewards that behavior. But the byproduct is brutal.
The average bettor scrolling this app has basically NO CHANCE. What they’re being fed isn’t how to think better about betting, it’s how to feel like there’s a shortcut. This one game, this one slate, this one list of “can’t miss” plays is finally going to get them over the top. News flash: it's isnt. That’s not how edges work. If it were that easy, it wouldn’t be posted publicly in a numbered thread optimized for clicks.
I still use this platform every day because there is value here. Smart people, good conversations, real insight if you know where to look. But the signal-to-noise ratio keeps getting worse, and the noise is winning because it performs better.
You can call it part of the ecosystem, but let’s stop pretending this stuff is helping anyone become a better bettor. It’s just selling hope, dressed up for the algorithm. Frankly, it's sad. I think about myself as a teenager potentially growing up in this age of betting and how cooked I would be.
Most people think sports prediction markets are just betting.
But betting asks what will happen and prices in margin, vibes, and limits.
Prediction markets ask what the market believes, aggregate information, and converge on a price.
One sells odds.
The other discovers truth.
Last week I sat down with Pace and Shane from @_inplayLIVE to talk about the threat the gambling tax loss provision in OBBB creates for $FLUT, $DKNG and state tax revenues.
I made the case that DraftKings needed to acquire a DCM ASAP, lo and behold.