Sharetrader

Stock market news, analysis. ASX, Wall Street, Cryptocurrencies, Forex, Commodities, Futures.

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

The ASX just had one of its strongest four-day rallies of the year.

Then one BHP update erased almost 1% from the index in a single session.

That's the problem with reading the ASX through the index level.

Banks are near highs.

Healthcare is attracting flows.

Tech keeps finding buyers.

But the market's dependence on a handful of mega-cap resource names means "the ASX" and "most stocks" are telling very different stories right now.

Breadth is stronger than the headline index suggests.

The question for next week:

Was Friday a warning shot for the rally, or proof that investors are still willing to buy everything outside the miners?

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

Within the past 52 weeks, positions are Crude Oil 34% and Gold 39% of their ranges (0% = low; 100% = high).

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

Featured head to head market compare?

Crude Oil vs Gold

https://t.co/skjwvORoXG

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

From their all-time highs, distances are Crude Oil 31.53% and Gold 22.07% (lower is closer to peak).

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

Over the last 1 year, Crude Oil rose 2.90% and Gold rose 22.87%, a lead of 19.97 percentage points for Gold.

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

The ASX 200 fell 0.6% to 8,911 today, breaking its streak of green sessions.

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

ASX up 0.55% today on Wednesday.

S&P/ASX 200 closed/gained strongly to 8,966.90 (+49.20pts), hitting a fresh 20-day high.

Travel stocks led the charge: Web Travel Group +11%, SiteMinder +8.3%. Broader gains in consumer discretionary, tech, and resources, with the index up ~3.6% over the past 5 days.

Energy mixed (oil softer on Iran peace hopes), banks steady. Still ~2.5% off 52-week high.

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

BREAKING: RBA holds cash rate steady at 4.35% as expected.

Board citing balanced risks with cooling economy but persistent inflation pressures.

No near-term cuts signaled.

ASX futures stable, banks and miners watching closely for direction.

Steady policy supports yield-sensitive stocks short-term but delays relief for borrowers.

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

The S&P/ASX 200 extended its massive risk-on rally today, closing up +1.25% to 8,914.00, hitting its highest mark since late April!

What drove the market today?

Geopolitical Tailwind: Global sentiment boosted by a landmark US-Iran peace accord and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a sharp pullback in oil prices.

Materials Shine (+3.8%): Mining giants led the charge. $BHP (+3.1%) locked in fresh all-time highs, while copper and gold miners skyrocketed. All Ords Gold index surged over 8%.

Yields Drop: The Australian 10-year bond yield dipped to a 3-month low of 4.87%, fueling gains in Tech and Financials.

Top Gainers:

Vault Minerals $VAU (+14.1%)

Regis Resources $RRL (+13.0%)

Accent Group $AX1 (+12.6%)

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

ASX Monday pre-market: What to watch.

Here is the essential macro and sector breakdown before the Australian market open:

Global risk sentiment shifted over the weekend, setting up a busy opening bell for the Australian market this morning.

- Global Relief Rally: Wall Street clawed back late last week following reports that planned strikes on Iran were cancelled, fueling hopes for a peace deal. The easing of geopolitical anxiety is providing a tailwind for global equities.

- Energy Under Pressure: WTI Crude plummeted toward US$85–$86/bbl as Middle East supply disruption fears faded. Watching for early pressure on local energy heavyweights Woodside ($WDS) and Santos ($STO).

- The RBA Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia meets tomorrow. While the cash rate is widely expected to hold steady at 4.35%, traders will scrutinize the statement. Weak domestic GDP data and tepid consumer confidence have markets betting the tightening cycle is done, supporting yield-sensitive sectors.

- Miners & Materials: Base metals and iron ore remain choppy. Watch BHP ($BHP), Rio Tinto ($RIO), and Fortescue ($FMG) to see if the broader macro relief rally can offset recent commodity drags.

- Retail Momentum: Consumer discretionary was a standout late last week, surging over 8%. Watching for continued momentum.

- OZ Futures: Pointing to a positive start as global macro relief overrides softer commodity cues.

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

@DoubleWideCap Missing #5 : Avoidance. Double down loser and never sell to avoid locking in any loss

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

ASX Weekend Wrap: Bulls Charge Back

What a massive turnaround. After weeks of being hammered by Middle East tensions and oil price shocks, the local market just pulled off its best week in two months.

Traders aggressively priced in local rate relief after softer economic data, while safe-haven unwinding sparked a massive risk-on rally. Here is exactly where we wrapped up the week:

The Scorecard:

S&P/ASX 200: 8,804.0 (+170.8 pts | +1.98%)

All Ordinaries: 9,006.1 (+169.4 pts | +1.92%)

Small Ordinaries: +2.13%

ASX Resources: +3.40%

Sector Highlights & Market Drivers:

Consumer Discretionary & Staples Outperformed: With bad economic news being treated as "good news" for the RBA rate trajectory, Consumer Cyclicals soared over 8% across the 5 sessions, closely followed by Staples (+7.5%).

The Great Mining Rebound: As oil prices cooled down, the heavyweight resources sector charged ahead by +3.40%, completely reversing the previous week's misery.

Tech Lagged: While everything else flew, the All Tech index was the relative underperformer, gaining a modest +0.34% as capital rotated back into heavily beaten-down cyclicals.

Global Context:

Over the weekend, Wall Street finished mixed as semiconductors recovered some of their brutal losses from earlier in the week. However, geopolitical risk isn't entirely dead; crude futures ticked up slightly on Sunday following fresh friction.

Trader's Note: Keep an eye on Monday morning index futures. The ASX 200 has cracked back above key psychological levels, but sustainability depends entirely on whether this "peace rally" holds up or if sticky inflation jitters creep back in.

Happy Sunday!

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

@FirstSquawk We are really DocuSigning peace agreements now

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

@signulll Nothing increases demand like scarcity

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

@FirstSquawk Well deserved, it was never a sure thing.

They took a bet on Elon and it worked out.

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

The ASX 200 capped off its best week in two months, surging 171 points on Friday to close at 8,804.0 as market sentiment rotated heavily back into risk.

While a 4% slide in global energy benchmarks put the squeeze on heavyweights Woodside ($WDS) and Santos ($STO), the resulting drop in oil prices ultimately released the handbrake on the broader market, fueling a massive late-week rally across miners, banks, and growth stocks

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

$SPCX dominated Friday’s volume after pricing its historic $75B IPO at $135 a share, while WTI crude futures slid toward $84 on shifting geopolitical headlines.

Over the weekend, the market is digesting record-breaking tech equity inflows alongside a sharp cooling in global energy benchmarks.

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

@zerohedge Elon Quadrillionaire by close of trade today

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

@Globalflows But SpaceX..

[Sharetrader @SharetraderAU]

@zerohedge Update at close of trade pls