🏈 NFL WEEK 8 — Main Slate 🏈
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🔹Josh Allen - O 0.5 Anytime TD
🔹Joe Burrow - O 2 Pass TDs
🔹Michael Wilson - O 7 Rec Targets
🔹Derrick Henry - O 0.5 Anytime TDs
🔹Andre Szmyt - O 0.5 FG Made
🔹Ashton Jeanty - O 19.5 Rec Yards
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🔹Drew Stevens - O 0.5 FG Made
Sticking with the weather narrative, touchdowns could be difficult to come by. However, I still expect the Commanders to move the ball into scoring range, creating opportunities for Stevens. He's perfect on the season at this line, and I like him to keep that trend going.
🔹Jayden Daniels - U 1.5 Passing + Rushing TDs
With temperatures below 50, consistent rain, and 20+ MPH wind gusts, I don't expect much scoring through the air. This profiles as a ground-heavy game, and with Daniels' recent injury concerns limiting his rushing involvement, I'll take the under as most scoring should come from the run game and field goals.
🔹Treylon Burks - O 2 Receptions
Burks returns after missing last game, and we're getting solid value at just 2 receptions. His target share has steadily increased into the 15–20% range, and he's cleared this line in 92% of games with a 15%+ target share. Even with potentially lower passing volume, just 4 targets could be enough to get this over.
🔹Cam Skattebo - O 14.5 Rushing Attempts
Skatt has cleared this line in 4 of 6 games despite dealing with rotation issues. Coming off a 17-carry, 100+ yard performance against a stout Texans run defense, I expect him to see a heavier workload in these weather conditions, especially with Harbaugh seemingly back in his corner.
🔹Isaiah Likely - O 3.5 Receptions
When McCarthy does drop back, I expect plenty of play action to complement the run game, creating opportunities for the TEs. Likely should benefit from short, quick completions, especially against a Commanders defense allowing the 6th-most receptions to opposing TEs this season.
🔹J.J. McCarthy - U 29.5 Passing Attempts
McCarthy has gone over this line in just 2 of his last 14 games (14% hit rate). With rain and strong winds expected, I anticipate the Giants leaning heavily on Skatt and the run game, especially given McCarthy’s history of inconsistent play and turnovers.
🔹Anthony Black - O 9.5 Rebounds + Assists
Black has cleared this line in 5 straight games, averaging 13.2 RA per game. While Utah presents a tougher matchup for guard RA, the per-minute production at this number is too good to pass up. In games with 30+ minutes, Black has cleared this line in 68% of his appearances. I'm playing the value over the matchup and backing Black for 10+ RA.
🔹SGA - O 32.5 Points
This is a lofty number, so the hit rate isn't as appealing, but I like the matchup. Portland is one of the league's worst teams at defending high-volume primary scorers, allowing the 3rd-most points to opposing PGs. They've also surrendered 53 and 41 points to Luka, giving SGA a favorable opportunity to put up a big scoring night.
🔹Isaiah Hartenstein - O 9.5 Rebounds
Hartenstein is over this line at a 60% hit rate and gets a favorable matchup against a Blazers team allowing the 11th-most rebounds to opposing Cs. Coming off a 9-rebound performance, I like the bounce-back spot for Hart to get to 10+.
🔹Yaxel Lendeborg - O 28.5 PRA
Yaxel has cleared this line in 8 of 11 games this season, averaging 32.5 PRA. On paper, Houston is a tough matchup, but with Curry playing at a high level offensively, I expect the Rockets to send plenty of double teams his way, creating open looks for Yaxel. Amen will also likely draw the primary assignment on Curry, potentially taking Houston's best perimeter defender out of the equation.
🔹Jerami Grant - O 3.5 2PTA
Grant has cleared this line in 6 straight games, averaging 5.2 2PTA per game. There's solid value at this number, especially against a Nuggets team allowing the 9th-most 2PTA to opposing players at his position. I like Grant to clear this line early.
🔹Anthony Davis - O 22.5 Points
Davis has cleared this line in 4 straight games, averaging 30.5 PPG during that span. He now gets a favorable matchup against the Pacers, who allow the 11th-most points to opposing Cs and 9th-most paint points, an area where Davis scores 60% of his points. I like Davis to keep the momentum going and clear 23+ points.
🔹SGA & Camara - O 5 Combined 3PTM
My favorite play on the board tonight. SGA is averaging 3.6 3PTM over his L5 and has been letting it fly from deep. Camara adds plenty of upside, averaging 3.1 made threes per game. After going scoreless from deep last game, I like a bounce-back performance against an OKC defense allowing the 5th-most threes to his position. This has a great chance to clear comfortably by the 3rd quarter.
🔹Anthony Black - O 10 RA
Black has cleared 10+ RA in four straight games while seeing elevated minutes with Suggs and Banchero sidelined. I prefer his RA line over PRA given his streaky scoring, especially against a Kings team allowing the 3rd-most RA to opposing guards this season.