Alpha

Random Street Blog

[Alpha @SharpPlayer11]

Ed Seykota Energy 🔥

cc Market Wizards

[Bret Weinstein @BretWeinstein]

Something is at war with us, “us” being regular citizens who want things to work and to be left alone. We’re slow to react because we think in terms of nations. Our enemies are mafias that wear our governments like a cloak to defeat our eyes, and fly our flags to disarm our minds

[Alon Mizrahi @alon_mizrahi]

Don't call this an integration if the two militaries: this is creating a clear hierarchy, with Israel on top and the US under its command.

How do I know that? It is simple: under the new agreement, the US will have to share its secrets with Israel, but Israel won't be obliged to share anything with the US.

No parallel legislation was passed in Israel, and none will ever pass. The US chooses to be controlled by Israel

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

With some comparing Trump's Iran deal to Obama's Iran deal, wanted to highlight this section of the 4/17/26 edition of Tree Rings showing Pres. Obama & Sec. State Kerry both saying NOT doing the Iran deal would threaten USD reserve status.

That Obama & Kerry said this within 6 days of each other suggests they had received a talking point memo on the threat to USD reserve status.

[Ryan Grim @ryangrim]

I think the way Trump plans to thread the needle on the deal is to brazenly lie about the terms and have conservative media repeat those lies. Frankly, that’s an ok outcome, better than endless war.

This below is absurd, but let’s go with it.

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

Right. It's not just that Massie is a leader in the fight against forcing Americans to fund foreign wars (in Israel, Ukraine, etc). He's also a vehement free speech defender and long-time leader against warrantless domestic surveillance.

But since these are issues most people pretend to care about only when their party is out of power, institutionalized MAGA is devoted to his destruction.

[Max Blumenthal @MaxBlumenthal]

Ed Gallrein opens by shrouding his bio in secrecy, claiming he served in sensitive conflict zones he cannot mention.

I suspect this is because he’s exaggerated his record - much like DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin, a military impostor and MMA fighter who boasted of “special assignments” and “overseas deployments” despite having never served in uniform.

Or like Pete Hegseth, a mid level National Guard officer whom Gallrein falsely referred to as an Army Ranger, and who was reassigned to civil affairs during his Iraq deployment.

Or perhaps Gallrein is ashamed of his record. He is reportedly despised by many who served with him. One former SEAL said, “Tons of guys left the teams after working for him.”

So Gallrein’s bio remains classified. He’s endorsed by people he can’t name. The public can’t scrutinize him. He takes no questions from the press. Trust the plan.

Gallrein’s concealment of his murky past on national security grounds makes him an ideal stealth candidate for the Israel Lobby which propels his candidacy and dictates Trump’s foreign policy.

His only job is to defeat one of the only independent figures in Congress, then protect Trump from Iran War Powers votes and further Epstein disclosures.

[BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital]

Society is full of little, insidious mechanisms trying to capture and divide your energy and focus

This is completely against your own self-interest, but from this discourse this weekend on unhappiness in the face of abundance it should be fully evident that people are almost powerless to resist these forces

This is because the smartest people in the world are hard at work creating novel approaches to highjack your attention, degrade your willpower and convince you to trade your money and your time for the next _____ which will surely, finally, bring your happiness

But success, and contentedness, come from investing in *fewer* pursuits with *more* depth and intensity

You only need a few great friends who you can count on and who can count on you. A couple of hobbies you are willing to be bad at for years until you slowly live your way into well-crafted mastery. Your career will flourish if you embrace the dogged pursuit of a single outcome over a long period of time

This is the tension of modern existence, and the true meta-skill to hone and refine over decades. How do you live a deliberate life in a world that actively wants you to exist in a state of reactive desire?

I don’t claim to have the answer, and would simply posit this:

Become aware of all the ways society, and people, try to hijack your one precious life to divert attention toward things that really and truly do not matter, and even actively harm you

And every day seek to build mental and emotional resilience against those forces and cultivate persistence in your pursuit of the few things that really and truly matter

It is hard. Many days you will fail. But you cannot let the world knock you off balance and live a life defined by someone else’s terms

It is perhaps the only thing that matters

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

@JSeyff

[Alpha @SharpPlayer11]

Me: i just read a dozen books on this subject, did a hundred hours of relevant podcasts, read a white paper, and have come to several working conclusions.

My Dad: So you're an expert now? Just stop.

There is nothing a boomer loves more than an establishment expert...

[Dave Smith @ComicDaveSmith]

Does “never again” apply to “killing an entire civilizations, never to be seen again?”

I’m just curious how this works.

[Julian Dorey @juliandorey]

masterclass on how to BODYBAG a passive aggressive interviewer with their own words

[Matt Gaetz @mattgaetz]

Turkey is about to face years of being 2 weeks away from a nuclear weapon

[Ethan Levins ✝️ @EthanLevins2]

Apple has removed Lebanese village names in Southern Lebanon.

As Israel invades, they are already setting the state to justify occupation.

I’ve never seen something like this.

[Mike Benz @MikeBenzCyber]

if the EU will allow it

[Robert P. Murphy @BobMurphyEcon]

@netanyahu it might be simpler if you just listed the neighbors you don't want to bomb

[matt.smith @mattpheus]

The war with Iran has accomplished more progress on The 2030 Agenda in six weeks than three decades of climate summits.
For three decades, the United Nations, the World Economic Forum, and allied institutions have been urging the world to reduce oil consumption, shift to renewable energy, redesign cities around public transit, embrace remote work, and build resilient food systems. Progress has been glacial. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals, has remained largely aspirational...until now.

[Alpha @SharpPlayer11]

Still not seen it explained how a temp ceasefire fixes the significant Israel problem...

[Nick Sortor @nicksortor]

🚨 BREAKING: The Israeli government is NOT HAPPY with the terms of President Trump’s two-week ceasefire with Iran, per Fox News

Excuse me if I couldn’t care less about a foreign country’s opinion on our President’s actions.

America First.

[Alpha @SharpPlayer11]

@shoe0nhead @martyrmade Cc @LynAldenContact the real train...

[Porter Stansberry @porterstansb]

Let's walk through this together.

Every 10% rise in diesel adds 1.5% to consumer prices within a quarter.

New York Harbor ultra‑low‑sulfur diesel usually trades somewhere in the $2.25 to $3.25 per gallon range. On March 2nd it was $3.18. On March 20, the price hit $4.71 (+48%).

If you own a trucking fleet, your single largest operating cost just went vertical. The only time prices have ever been higher was at the beginning of the Russian-Ukraine war. The price hit $5.33 on May 11, 2022. You might recall what happened to inflation, interest rates, the bond market and the stock market that year.

Europe has its own benchmark called ICE Low Sulphur Gasoil. In calm times it trades between $600 and $900 per metric ton. Today, it’s trading over those previous records around $1,400 -- the highest price ever. Asia is telling the same story. Singapore’s 10‑ppm (parts per million) gasoil, the key reference price for diesel in the Pacific basin, is trading at an all-time high near $200 per barrel, up from $90 pre-Iran-war.

The “crack spread” is the margin a refinery earns for turning crude into diesel. Think of it as the toll the market pays per barrel to get crude oil converted into usable fuel. Normally the crack spread is $15 to $20 per barrel – not a major factor in energy cost. During the worst of the Russia‑Ukraine shock, diesel cracks rose above $50 per barrel. Today, the crack spread is over $70 per barrel.

While it only produces 20% of global crude supplies, the Persian Gulf effectively accounts for more than a third of global diesel supply because its sour crude is the key feedstock for the world's most efficient (and largest) refineries. Additionally, Persian Gulf refining capacity has grown from roughly 8 to about 13 million b/d over the past two decades, with new, highly complex export refineries (Al‑Zour, Jazan, Ruwais, Duqm) designed to run heavy/sour crude and maximize diesel yields.

With the Gulf closed, you are effectively removing about a third of the world's flexible export diesel that supplies Europe, Africa, and Asia.

If the Straight of Hormuz is closed for a year, you'll see diesel trading over $300 per barrel -- roughly 3x its current price. That pushes CPI over 30%. In a year.

You say this is impossible? It's exactly what is happening right now. Pakistan -- a nation of 250 million people and nuclear power -- is eight days from running out of diesel.

So, where would interest rates go if the CPI was 10%+ and there’s ongoing war in the Middle East?

In that scenario, I do not believe the existing federal debt can be financed without a technical default.

One-third of all of the outstanding debt held by the public ($10 trillion) must be refinanced by the end of 2026.

The weighted average coupon on this maturing debt is about 2.5%. If it has to be rolled at 8-10%, the incremental interest cost is roughly $500-700 billion per year, on top of the already-$1+ trillion interest bill.

Each 100 bps (1% higher rate) adds ~$310 billion annually in interest expense. At 10% across-the-board rates, you're looking at net interest expense approaching $2-2.5 trillion per year. Not "some day." Within 12-18 months.

Current federal revenues are $5.6 trillion. If interest alone hits $2+ trillion within 12 months, that's roughly 40% of the budget going to debt service — just the interest!

I believe it’s inevitable that the U.S. will default – just as it did in 1933 and in 1971. The only question is when and what will trigger the panic.

Soaring diesel prices, an ongoing war in Iran, and rates soaring over 10% would do it.

So, for me, if the 10-year cracks 5%... I’m out. The markets will no longer be investable.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.