Shaun Newkirk

CFA. Caution: will tweet a lot (of bad opinions) about sports (NFL/MLB), sabermetrics, movies (especially 00s comedies), and television. Sometimes my dogs too.

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

Friends: I started a Substack called "The Analytics Say..." where I'm going to be writing about thoughts that are too long for Twitter.

It is free and will always be free.

My first post is on where does the Royals organization goes from here

https://t.co/P4sJC47Vp4

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

Are the Chargers just Chargering even trades now too?

[Benjamin Allbright @AllbrightNFL]

@JJadonsmith Well, the trade was pending a physical, so…

He had a torn labrum week 4 last year, had offseason surgery and then he re-injured himself last week.

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

*Glad

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

Can someone did this, I was considering it too. I think using projected WAR (ideally for just contract length but could do it simply as next 3 years) would be a nice touch. I've got my version of that I might do but Nick's tweet is good

[Nick Gurol @run_the_sims]

There was a request in my deadline thread for the full-season landscape, so here it is: every trade since Sept. 28, ranked by net PFF WAR.

The other questions were about the WAR values, like why 3 Jaguars defenders add up to only +0.09.

I'll do my best to explain, but it boils down to how much impact a specific position can have on an NFL game.

PFF WAR estimates how many wins a player adds compared with a replacement-level player. PFF assumes that a full team of replacement-level players would go 3-13.

It takes a player's PFF grade on each part of his job, like coverage and run defense for a safety, and weights each one by how often he did it and how much that part of the game matters to winning.

A safety, by WAR, impacts the game much less than a QB or WR: the top QB this season is at 2.33 WAR, the top WR at 0.67 and the top safety at 0.08. Contracts and NFL teams' draft behavior tend to agree with this broadly as well.

Is it perfect? No. But there really isn't another player-level talent metric that weights by snaps and positional value as well as PFF WAR does.

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

Okay, now the leather jackets seem kind of messed υp

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Breaking: Nvidia’s board is preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang after he had two extramarital affairs, including one with a suspected Chinese spy. https://t.co/Pjsu5j87CF

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

@kerrrr22 Show me the chart then of just TEs

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

Kelce with the random YAC this year is so funny. This would be his highest YAC score at ESPN as far back as the data goes (2017) by a good bit

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

@kerrrr22 The point where the two red lines cross is exactly average for both

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

@kerrrr22 And btw, both ESPN and FPD (your third image) agree that he's average at getting open

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

@kerrrr22 Two of those images are from the same source. Don't use ESPN then if you don't like it, that's fine.

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

@kerrrr22 Read the whole tweet and look at the images again

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

Really like how nicely concave the offensive tackle aging curve is

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

Three ways to look at NFL aging curves perhaps. WAR/1000 snaps, as a percentile of peers by age, and then indexed to average

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

Three ways to look at NFL aging curves perhaps. WAR/1000 snaps, as a percentile of peers by age, and then indexed to average

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

wtf is going on with this website right now?

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

*Min 150 pass rush snaps

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

Edge rusher pass rush win rate and double team rate so far (via PFF).

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

Quick Stathead pull: wins against teams that are above .500 so far this year. Broncos have 4, Buffalo/Jacksonville/SF have 3, Cincy/Dallas/Giants without one (of course NYG has only played one opp - Rams).

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

Downs placement is funny here because it might just be because there is no one else on the roster worth covering (same for Caleb Douglas)?

[Jrfortgang @throwthedamball]

How often does a WR get shaded/bracketed/doubled and their separation on true single-coverage no secondary help plays

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

@kcjunk Yeah but how far up are you going to move with a bunch of 4ths and 5ths? Maybe you can turn that 2nd into a 1st but IDK man if a bad team should be moving up

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

There's value in having a lot of picks, but I think sometimes the draft value charts overstate it. Like, would you rather have the 7th overall pick or the 38th + 69th? Because they are equal on the OTC draft chart.

[Jay Robins @TheJayRobins]

Despite not having a Round 1 Pick, the Colts are 8th in @tankathon’s Draft Power Rankings for total pick value.

Every team ahead of them has either a projected Top 10 pick &/or multiple Round 1 picks

Next GM has a good war chest of picks & cap $ (5th most) to start the rebuild.