Shawn Helbig

Father of two. Husband of one. Retired 20 year police officer. National Trustee KY FOP

[Shawn Helbig @Shawn_Helbig]

@ginamilan_ Your a dumb ass

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Honored to have Representative Daniel Elliott’s endorsement. He’s doing a great job for Boyle and Casey Counties in Frankfort. We are ready to deliver for Central Kentucky!

[Andrew Solender @AndrewSolender]

#KYSen: GOP Rep. Andy Barr running ads touting an endorsement from Riley Gaines

[Andrew Cooperrider @KYCooperrider]

New Senate Poll dropped from Emerson/Fox56 :

Andy Barr: 28%
Daniel Cameron: 21%
Nate Morris: 15%
Mike Faris: 2%
George Washington: 2%
Anissa Catlett: 1%
Val Fredrick: 1%
Jimmy Leon: 1%
Undecided: 29%

The same polling company showed Barr with a slight lead a few weeks ago. 24% Barr – 21% Cameron – 14% Morris, 38% undecided in the prior Emerson survey. There is something somewhat interesting going on with their poll though that tempers my belief that this poll is highly accurate.

I think it is capturing movement correctly. People shifting off Cameron due to the massive ad campaigns being run by the other two, and landing more with Barr than Morris. But I think it's overstating Barr's percentage and he may not actuallybe in the lead.

Between this poll and the last one done by Emerson that showed Barr with a smaller lead, the Barr Campaign released an internal showing Cameron in the lead. That's really significant to me. Considering the millions being spent by the campaigns, internal campaign polls tend to be better funded and their "who is going to vote" models are a lot more sophisticated — using everything from voter frequency to online activity.

Campaigns have to know who is actually going to vote because they're spending millions. You don't want to waste dollars campaigning to people who never show up. Polling companies not working directly with campaigns often use simpler models. The fact that Barr released an internal (they poll a lot more than when they release one to the public) that showed him down recently says that they haven't had an internal with him winning, and that was considered a good result for them. When a "good" internal result for Barr is him still not leading, it makes me dubious of Emerson's exact numbers.

Which goes into their response methodology: The poll was conducted using a mix of MMS text-to-web and email contacts from a voter file (Aristotle), plus online panels. Responses were matched to the voter file using full names and ZIP codes. Data was weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region.This approach can introduce issues — online panels and text-to-web responses sometimes over-sample more digitally engaged or available voters, and matching isn't always perfect. It may not fully capture the "low-propensity but reliable" primary voters the way sophisticated campaign internals do.

Bottom line:

Barr is gaining some ground. He has found a groove, but he should watch for undecideds breaking toward Cameron as he is a known and comfortable name for much of the voter base.

Cameron seems to have a base somewhere around 21-25% and needs to think really hard about how exactly he's going to use the funds he does have in the final weeks.

Morris needs to look heavily at how he is sharing his message. It's not connecting. A style change-up in ads and messaging is needed. It's an outsider campaign that has an ad and messaging style of a senator who's been in office for years. You're a fresh face — your campaign should also feel fresh to get that across.

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Hello from Murray, hometown of my late Campaign Manager, Tatum Dale. Tatum loved Western Kentucky — farmers, coal miners, small businesses, veterans, and families. I will always honor her by fighting and delivering for Western Kentucky. God bless you Tatum and God bless the amazing Kentuckians in Calloway County.

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Honored to have Leslie County Sheriff Billy Michael Collett endorsing my campaign. I’ll always back the blue and oppose the war on police. Thank you Sheriff Collett and your Deputies for protecting the great Kentuckians in Leslie County!

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

What a night at the Political Candidates Old Fashion Bean Supper in Somerset. Great music by The Journeyman and some awesome food as well. President Trump will have no greater ally than me in the Senate. Make me your Senator and I'll keep fighting alongside President Trump to deliver for Kentucky and Make America Great Again! 🇺🇸

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Eastern Kentucky is Barr country! What a crowd in London. I'm proud to be the coal candidate in this race, the candidate with @HalRogersKY5 endorsement, and the candidate who will always fight for EKY. God bless!

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Hello from Country Boy Brewing in Georgetown! Great to be back in Scott County — a place that has always stood with me and helped us win tough races against the left. I'm honored to have Judge Joe Pat Covington and so many great conservatives behind my campaign. Nominate me and we will beat the left again in November!

[Congressman Andy Barr @RepAndyBarr]

Democrats are holding @TSA, Air Traffic Controllers, and @DHSgov workers hostage — forcing them to work without pay while they play political games. I met a TSA officer who told me this is hurting her family. I’m going to keep fighting until they get every dollar they earned.

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Happy National Ag Day. Kentucky farmers don’t just feed America — they fuel our economy, power communities, and embody the values that make this country great. In the Senate, I’ll fight for a Farmers First Agenda to cut red tape, expand markets, and protect family farms. God bless Kentucky farmers!

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

I’m taking the Veterans for Barr coalition statewide so that EVERY veteran from Corbin to Covington, Paducah to Pikeville, is taken care of. Our veterans served us in uniform and I will always honor their service by delivering for them.

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Great to be at the Adair County Republican Party meet the candidates event this weekend. I'm the only candidate in this race who has won tough elections and worked with President Trump to deliver the America First agenda. I'm ready to lead on day one.

[Shawn Helbig @Shawn_Helbig]

https://t.co/tJYuhTv27p

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Enjoyed speaking to the @KYSTATEFOP today. I’m the only candidate in this race who never caved to, or promoted, Black Lives Matter. I will ALWAYS back the blue and be loyal to our rank and file officers.

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Great launch for the Veterans for Barr Coalition. As the grandson of two WWII veterans, serving those who served us has always been personal to me. I’ve fought for expanded VA health care, education benefits, and resources for our veterans, and I’ll keep fighting in the Senate.

Honored to have the endorsement of Kentucky State Treasurer @MarkMetcalf4KY, Major General (R) Donald Storm, and former Sheriff Rodney Coffey — all veterans who attended today.

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Thank you President Trump and AG Bondi for righting this wrong. BLM’s war on police that some in this race promoted and others participated in led to these cops being wrongly prosecuted. Our police officers were defending themselves against Breonna Taylor’s crazed criminal gunman drug dealer boyfriend. I will always defend our police. https://t.co/SsIxi3szoS

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Hello from Bardstown! It was great to speak to the room of fired up patriots at the Nelson County Lincoln Dinner. It has been the honor of a lifetime to represent Kentucky’s signature industries in Congress, and you have my commitment to that service in the United States Senate.

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Fake @NateMorris is LYING again. How can Andy Barr be for amnesty or weak on the border when he’s endorsed by President Trump’s DHS nominee to lead on border security, @MarkwayneMullin?

[Andy Barr @barrforsenate]

Today, we launched the Law Enforcement for Barr Coalition. Great to have leaders from the federal, state, and local level with us in Louisville. I’m honored to be the only candidate in this race to have a law enforcement organization supporting my campaign and I’ll always fight for our police.