SheepToken

Trade posting @polymarket || Fundamental Trading only || Referral Link:

[SheepToken @SheepTokenPM]

@HiveLiveHQ What a great introduction to polymarket for degens

[SheepToken @SheepTokenPM]

I might be famous?!! @PMTraderAdam thanks for sharing 🙏

[PolyMax 💎 @Maximilian_evm]

One of the best things about @sharexyz is their leaderboard and its clean UI. You can instantly see who is crushing it right now, check their exact positions, and turn on notifications.

Caught a solid daily green run and pushed myself into the Top 8 today. If you want to track what top traders are buying in real-time, this is the easiest way.

Sign up with my referral link to save 10% on fees: https://t.co/jFnZtqV8Q5

[SheepToken @SheepTokenPM]

@PMTraderAdam @Maximilian_evm @sharexyz Ayo wtffff

[ice @penguin_pmkt]

hey @BillAckman i am in desperate need of capital in the next 30 minutes. i can repay any loan at 100.5% in 48 hours. please help me. this trade won't be open for long

[SheepToken @SheepTokenPM]

@penguin_pmkt @BillAckman Best fixed income investment of the year if you do this @BillAckman guaranteed

[SheepToken @SheepTokenPM]

@LolakisPM Big scams here 😛 😛 😛
Jokes aside nice flow fills, good way to trade on poly without much risk 👍

[SheepToken @SheepTokenPM]

@lranonPM Spread doesn’t need to be close at all, you can bluff useless hands if you have a good following and sometimes it pays off by getting exit liquidity. It’s the same thing as table talking your useless hand in poker

[mr.ozi @MrOziPM]

I am sorry for your loss.

Clearly, Polymarket could have and should have done a a bunch of things to prevent this (and other) situations, which harm many users and lead them to lose money.

And let me also say:
You were not scammed of anything.

1) You write: "Polymarket SPECIFICALLY WAITED until the 8K was filed, to resolve the market."

This claim is wrong. In fact, the market is still open and tradable because of the Polymarket governance that keeps all the markets open while a resolution dispute is in progress, which takes 3 days typically.

Is it a bad system? Yes. Does it create an impression for unfamiliar people that new evidence is permissible? Yes.

But, no, they did not do anything specifically to keep it open. It's just their crappy system. And you were unfamiliar with it.

If anything, they should've done something specifically to close the market, rather than defaulting to their typical mechanism.

2) You write: "Their "sharps" could fill 6-figures against people betting on a confirmed outcome, then they could add a new rule and scam all the newcomers."

It is clearly Polymarket's fault that to this day they haven't created and published resolution guidelines. It is their fault that experienced users, like myself, often benefit from knowing the unwritten governance and resolution precedents at the expense of users less familiar with them, like yourself.

But there was no new rule created. With some exceptions, which are usually (but not always) written into the rules, evidence published after the market's end date cannot be taken into account. Otherwise, you would never know when a market is resolvable.

I was buying No-shares before the filing was revealed on Monday morning at 80-90c precisely because of that. The market was already effectively dead, if you only knew the unwritten rules.

Now, obviously, they should make that very clear, e.g. by putting a big red banner on markets that pass their end date informing users that new evidence doesn't count and that the market is in a resolution phase only. Or, they could block trading after market's resolution date. Many options.

So, while I cannot blame you for not knowing the precedents and for being fooled by the market being seemingly "open" for new evidence, it is not true that new rules were added post-factum. You were simply unaware of them.

3) You write: "Now - the fact that people were willing to give me 20-25c on the dollar for an event that was 100% certain was certainly a red flag. But I had checked and re-checked the rules."

You were willing to risk $0.5m on the assumption that your counterparties were simply giving you free money. I judge that to be a grave mistake of overconfidence. A more prudent approach would've been to engage with your counterparties and try to understand why they're willing to bet so much against you.

+++

So while I agree that Polymarket's communication about resolution mechanics is very inadequate and leads honest well-reasoning people like you to lose money, I would caution against going into conspiratory theories of Polymarket intentionally keeping the market open and sharps adding new rules.

If you want to continue trading, I'd advise you to join one of the prediction market trading communities. Checking in with some fellow traders could've saved you $0.5m here. In our PredictLab Discord, we actively discussed the market as it went and most of us decided to bet on No because of the existing clarification precedents for similar situations.

I hope you will win it back one day.

[Car @CarOnPolymarket]

https://t.co/1nqC4f2ekN

[SheepToken @SheepTokenPM]

@CarOnPolymarket Good write-up this has been the centerpiece of a couple of disputes lately; this is something every new person should read

[Hive @HiveLiveHQ]

WE’RE RUNNING IT BACK

THE HIVE WORLD CUP

$10,000 in prizes. Free entry. Begins June 12

Your chance to prove yourself

[SheepToken @SheepTokenPM]

@sonixtrader Good stuff my guy, we did it!

[SheepToken @SheepTokenPM]

@Atlantislq @Polymarket Y goes to 0

[Toon Matthew @ToonMatthewT1]

I spent the last 5 years asking 400 people a single question. It changed how I think about generating an edge in trading.

The question: Name a president that you don't think other people will name, keeping in mind that other people are also trying to name a president that others won't name.

Take a moment to answer before reading on.

The results map directly onto how I think about alpha.

Bucket the 45 presidents into 6 tiers by name recognition with Tier 1 being the most famous and Tier 6 the most obscure. The results show a clear bias toward obscurity—selections rise steadily from Tier 2 through Tier 6—with a sharp reverse-psychology spike back up at Tier 1. People favor going obscure ("Who would think of Millard Fillmore?") but many deploy maximum reverse psychology ("Washington is too obvious. Nobody will say him"). In reality, Washington and Fillmore are the two most common answers. [sorry, @dumborambo_, it is true]

The sweet spot is Tier 2: Clinton, JFK, Jefferson, both Bushes, Nixon, LBJ. Household names, but not top-of-mindnames. Out of 407 respondents, only 20 picked from this group. That is 16% of presidents, under 5% of selections. Most people are genuinely shocked to learn these are the best answers. [Maybe except for @Rigatohni, who picked the last unnamed president (George W. Bush)].

This is how I approach every market I've traded. Sports betting, options, commodities, prediction markets.

Tier 1 alpha ("Google has the best search engine," "Nvidia makes the chips") is real but saturated. The edge is gone before you arrive. Tier 6 alpha (tracking flight delays to beat sportsbooks, exotic statistical arbitrage) sounds clever but is almost always fruitless for the same reason: everyone who thinks they're being original is being original in the same direction.

Tier 2 alpha is the sweet spot. It is never complicated and does not require a Harvard PhD, but it is also never obvious enough that the crowd has caught on.

The smartest people I know have failed in trading because they couldn't believe Tier 2 alpha existed. Anything approachable, they assumed, had already been found by someone smarter. When I showed them edges that were statistically irrefutable, they called me a blind squirrel.

I used to half-believe them. But the more edges I find, the more the pattern holds. The best alpha is Tier 2. Once you see it, you'll wonder why you didn't see it sooner.

[SheepToken @SheepTokenPM]

@TaikiMaeda2 Hi Taiki, I sent you a DM on this, please respond when you get the chance to🙏

[Hive @HiveLiveHQ]

WOW

The Google employee who insider traded every category of “Year in Search” and won >$1 million has been caught

At the time, it was the biggest insider win on Polymarket

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

POLYMARKET WANTS TRADERS TO ID THEMSELVES AS IT FACES SANCTIONS, LEGAL RISKS - INFORMATION

[SheepToken @SheepTokenPM]

@0xFennecc @marcvelmare Real

[SheepToken @SheepTokenPM]

@poly_archive Baby is an ace