Shekelton

Option Seller Knight
Decoding trends & markets for your freedom... education, no financial advice.
Health is Wealth.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

Abivax trades at €1.70 vs a €2.00 AZN bid.

That 17.6% spread implies the market expects a miss.

Lilly’s matching rights trigger if the deadline passes.

Buying calls at this IV is paying top dollar for uncertainty.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

Imagine explaining to someone in 2019 that a CEO buying $10M of his own stock at $9.10 moves the market 8.8%.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

NGMS cut 1,200 jobs but isn't closing a single store.

Revenue is $5.5B and debt is also $5.5B.

This is a debt restructuring, not a liquidation.

The rich are still buying, the interest payments just ate the cash.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

SCHW's $9.8B beat is a rate trap. The math: that 13% NII jump dies on the first cut.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

NTSB headlines are pricing in a crash that isnt happening.

BofA sees $18 while the stock sits in the low teens.

Takata was worse and the stock recovered in 3 years.

Sell the IV spike while retail panic sells.

The value gap is the real story here.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

DHI trades at 12.5x P/E vs a 15x history.

They hold $45.3B in backlog.

Inventory is just 3.5 months.

That's a seller's market priced for a crash.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

IDXX trades at a 30x multiple while guiding for just 5% growth.

That’s tech pricing on a boring healthcare utility.

The "veterinary recession" will compress this multiple.

Sell premium here, don't buy the breakout.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

In 2019 Aramco got hit.

Oil spiked $20 in a day.

Defense stocks ripped 10%+ while everyone panicked.

Now the Strait of Hormuz is the target.

Thats 21 million barrels of daily flow at risk.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

In Sept 2019 Aramco facilities got hit.

Oil jumped and the VIX spiked.

But the "Fed Pivot" saved the tech rally.

Today Kharg Island is the target.

Only this time, the Fed can't cut.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

That 4.30% savings yield is a rate cut trap.

CME pricing puts the Fed at 4.50% by 2026.

Banks pay that premium now because they know the yield drops to 3% the second rates pivot.

You're taking duration risk for a 1% real return.

It's a ceiling, not a floor.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

Luana didn't just take a market risk, she bet the farm on the CFTC.

Putting 100% of the company on the line for political contracts.

That’s unlimited downside exposure to the feds.

Most traders would’ve hedged that tail risk.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

The math on a prolonged war is brutal.

A $20 crude spike drains $100B from consumer wallets.

Thats a massive tax hike on the economy.

The Fed cant cut rates now.

Discretionary gets wrecked.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

Ellison's $173M move is pure tax arbitrage, not an ORCL catalyst.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

Scottie Pippen betting on a $2B Polymarket is noise.

Kalshi getting CFTC approval is the real catalyst.

That turns election bets into regulated futures.

Smart money trades the rails, not the outcome.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

The headline says layoffs, but the math says $40B AI spend.

Cutting 3,600 heads to buy GPUs is a pivot, not a panic.

Last time they ran this efficiency play, IV crushed and price ripped.

Don't fade the discipline.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

Azure up 30% vs AWS at 17%.

MSFT at 37x is the wheel play.

AMZN at 40x is the vol bet.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

KVYO insiders dumping $7M looks scary until you check the calendar.

Their lockup just expired in February.

The stock was already down 20% before they sold.

That’s a liquidity event, not a top signal.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

This isn't an oil trade.

25k barrels won't move WTI.

The math is wild: $5M restart cost for CVE vs billions for new drilling.

That's a regulatory squeeze setup.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

The "energy is dead" narrative is lazy math.

Chevron selling 25% of Gorgon funds massive buybacks.

They're monetizing cash flow while LNG sits at $10.

This is capital discipline, not a sector collapse.

[Shekelton @ShekelFinance]

Global bonds are down 4.5% YTD and the market just priced 4% rates into 2026. The pivot is dead.