🌧️As the October–December (OND) 2026 Short Rains season gets underway, rainfall is expected over several parts of the country during this week.
🌧️Light to moderate rainfall is expected over some parts of Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang'a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and West Pokot Counties.
⛈️Isolated storms are expected over some parts of Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit, as well Tana River & Kilifi that may lead to flash flood. @MoICTKenya
https://t.co/o7ruSeCC04
Yesterday, I introduced my old man to the Kenya blockbuster show Makutano Junction.
I told him I watched it on his own tv in his own living room as I was growing up.
Mzee just said, "I guess I was busy putting food on the table"
It made me take a moment to reflect, seriously
Change of Seasons:
Wide-spread Cirro-Stratus & cumulus clouds with hazy skies across multiple Counties of #Kenya as seen today & yesterday, indicating an approaching storm system or large-scale change of weather.
We will witness lots of rain across the country especially in North Eastern, the Coast parts of Eastern & even Central highlands in a few days time.
RAINFALL FORECAST FOR OCTOBER 2026
🌧️⛈️Above-average rainfall (with higher probabilities) is likely to occur in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera and parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir Counties
🌧️🌧️Above-average rainfall is expected in Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua, Nyeri and parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok Counties
🌧️🌦️Near-average to above-average rainfall is expected in Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nandi, Nyamira, Samburu, Siaya, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, West Pokot and parts of Narok, Nakuru and Laikipia Counties.
⚠️Heavy rainfall events are expected in several parts of the country. @MoICTKenya
https://t.co/NpzGfJekL0
"Hii jua imewaka sana. Hakuna El Nino" 😃😃
If you jump into a TV series at Season 10 Episode 10, you will lose the plot and you'll never understand the storyline.
Even with all the technology at our disposal, accurate & reliable weather/climate forecasting is still a complex and daunting task. It requires patience and a follow-through of all updates for one to understand what is going on weather-wise. It also takes time for the forecasts to verify.
The earliest time we can say we've successfully survived the drought/floods induced by strongest El Nino on record is at the end of May 2027. Between now and then, the weather can change by a big magnitude in very short order and catch you by a big surprise.
In other news, the OND rainy season kicks off in North Eastern, the Coast, Eastern, parts of Mt #Kenya/Central & Kajiado any time from next weekend (4th of October onwards).
The most recent skill-weighted consolidated multi-model probability of exceedence charts depict over 70% chance of precipitation exceeding the LTM at this time of the year. All the mentioned regions' precipitation scenario simulations lie above the 67th tercile, pointing to a very high chance of heavy-to-very heavy rains.
This prediction is in line with the quoted post in which I rolled out the chronology of heavy seasonal rains and the order in which the Counties will be impacted.
🚨 EXCLUSIVE: Manchester City found guilty on virtually all charges relating to breaches of Premier League financial regulations. #MCFC expected to appeal against verdict issued by independent commission. Sanctions undecided, process ongoing @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/Muxqp4beK9