Adrian Shen

Early Solana Labs & Anthropic investor. Notes on AI, crypto infrastructure, and the public companies tied to private-market breakthroughs.

[Adrian Shen @ShenResearch]

I’ve been talking about $MRVL since $87.

Never miss the leading stocks again 👇 https://t.co/OlPEXbmRdv

[Adrian Shen @ShenResearch]

Thank you Jensen!

$MRVL

[Adrian Shen @ShenResearch]

This is absolutely insane.

The stock market is so hot right now that Victoria’s Secret $VSXY is up 47% in a single day.

We are officially in the “Trump bought calls on lingerie” phase of the bull market. 😂

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is absolutely incredible.

Investors now perceive Nvidia to be as creditworthy as the US government.

Nvidia's $NVDA, 5-year credit default swap (CDS) is trading at ~38 basis points, slightly below the US sovereign CDS, at 40 basis points.

In other words, markets consider the world's largest company to be less likely to default on its obligations than the US federal government.

This comes as in FY2026, Nvidia carried only ~$8.5 billion in total debt against ~$10.6 billion in cash and generated nearly $100 billion in free cash flow, giving it one of the strongest balance sheets of any company in the world.

Even if Nvidia's earnings dropped -90%, it would still rank among the 100 most profitable companies in the world.

Markets are treating Nvidia as one of the safest companies on the planet.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock, $HPE, surges over +33% after reporting stronger than expected earnings due to AI.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes at its highest level on record, now on track for a 10-week win streak for the first time since 1985.

That's +$11.7 TRILLION in market cap since March 30th.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says talks with Iran are back on.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and there will be “no troops going to Beirut.”

He also says the US spoke with Hezbollah and they agreed that “all shooting will stop” and “Israel will not attack them.”

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Anthropic has confidentially filed an S-1 with the SEC for its proposed IPO.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Call option volume is skyrocketing:

Call options now reflect 70% of total options market volume, the highest in at least 4 years.

Since early April, this percentage has risen +25 points, the largest 2-month increase on record.

This also exceeds the previous brief surge of ~68% seen in late 2025.

To put this into perspective, the average over the last 2 years was ~55%.

Furthermore, the total notional value of S&P 500 call options relative to the S&P 500's market cap is up to a record 4.1x, doubling over the last 2 months.

Bullish appetite is rapidly surging.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Micron, $MU, extends gains to rise above $1,000/share for the first time in history, now worth nearly $1.2 trillion.

This stock was worth $60 billion just 13 months ago.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Talk about a turn of events.

Exactly 9 days ago, President Trump said a deal with Iran was coming “shortly.”

Today, Iran has officially backed out of all negations with the US and is threatening to block both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.

It’s going to be an eventful month.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices surge over +8% to $94/barrel as Iran ends all negotiations with the US.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iran announces it is ending all negotiations with the US and vows to "completely" block the Strait of Hormuz, per CNBC.

Iran says it is ending negotiations due to repeated ceasefire violations including Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

Iran also threatens to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $72,000 for the first time since April 13th.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang responds to claims that AI is taking jobs:

"People are talking about AI decreasing jobs, it's complete nonsense."

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US military has conducted strikes on Iranian targets in Goruk and Qeshm Island, Iran, in what it described as "self-defense strikes."

The US says the strikes were carried out in response to "aggressive Iranian actions," including the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone that was operating over international waters.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is incredible:

AI-related companies have issued ~$140 billion in investment-grade bonds year-to-date, accounting for 49% of the total IG issuance.

AI-related companies have also attracted ~$220 billion in venture capital funding year-to-date, making up 87% of the total.

This means nearly 9 in every 10 Dollars of VC funding has flowed into AI-related firms.

Furthermore, in high-yield corporate bonds, AI has accounted for 38% of total issuance, or ~$21 billion year-to-date.

Combined, AI companies have raised ~$380 billion across all three channels year-to-date, reflecting ~64% of all capital flows.

The AI investment boom is reshaping how capital is allocated across the entire financial system.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The US fiscal situation is much worse than that of other major economies:

The US federal budget deficit stands at -6.0% of GDP, the largest among all G7 nations.

The budget gap is also more than TWICE as big as the G7 average of -3.0%.

By comparison, France and the UK are running deficits at -5.0% of GDP.

By 2028, the US deficit is expected to widen to -7.5% of GDP, near the highest since 2021.

At the same time, Italy and Canada are projected to run deficits at -2.0% of GDP over the same period.

The UK, France, Germany, and Japan are all expected to hold deficits below -5.0%.

The US is on an unsustainable fiscal path.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The power revolution is next:

Annual thermal power plant additions surged +70% YoY in 2025, to ~92 gigawatts, the largest annual increase since data began in 2008.

This is also +28% above the prior peak of ~72 gigawatts set in 2015.

The pipeline of future plants is growing even faster, with Chinese firms submitting approval requests for 51 gigawatts of new coal capacity in Q1 2026 alone.

At this pace, 2026 is on track to surpass the record 162 gigawatts of new proposals filed across the full year of 2025.

This comes as China continues to promote coal as a reliable backup when wind and solar power are unavailable, while simultaneously pledging that coal use will peak before 2030.

Meanwhile, China is also aggressively expanding nuclear capacity, with 39 reactors currently under construction, nearly 5 times more than India, which is in 2nd place, at 8 reactors.

Energy is the next hot commodity.