Shepherd Capital Markets

Stock Market Opinions | Portfolio Management Ideas | Founded by analysts for retail investors | Purely sharing Opinions. Never Financial Advice.

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

为什么我认为散户长期优势高于机构：

1. 散户的灵活性趋势可以让我们灵活的应对市场底层改变。大多数基金做不到，一波大走势结束之后那这个基金/策略的优势也就没了。而因为机构的交易量主导价格，所以是市场consensus。如果我有一个观点偏离consensus我会希望有数据支持我的观点。

2.常见机构“门派”有multi-strat，long only，L/S，passive，FoF，等等并且每个都可以细分。这个群体里面的一个困扰就是现在2026我不投大盘股，科技股，ai股我投谁？指数都是他们说了算，基金/issuer挤破头想进指数。指数屁股后面的所有被动性AUM gatherer基金翻过来内部强化自己。很难解。所以价投派一边吐一边买入。因为没办法。

3.最近的市场情况暂时让成长派承压，反而那些前几年相对无聊的板块疯狂上涨。成长派最近也是物理心理双重打击。自己跌了，还要看到前几年看不起的板块涨。肯定非常受不了“现代价值派”的嘴脸。

的确让我觉得这种局面很有意思的。一堆旅游大巴卡在欧洲村庄小路的感觉。根本调不过头来。所以这绝对是一个属于我们散户的优势。

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

Trump sees market down

TRUMP: hold my beer

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says the Trump Administration might buy equity stakes in US AI companies and that he will host a meeting with AI executives as soon as next week, per Reuters.

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

Insane vol

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Marvell Technology, $MRVL, surges over +7% on news that the company is joining the S&P 500.

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

A trend starting?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Meta, $META, is considering raising "tens of billions of dollars" in a stock offering as it seeks new sources of capital following the launch of Google’s record $85 billion equity raise this week, per FT.

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

The same GS that is leading the IPO?

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: $3.5 trillion Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX's AI revenue to surge 100x by 2030.

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

lol

This stock deserve it. Total garbage.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It's official.

MicroStrategy, $MSTR, is now facing its biggest unrealized loss in history, at -$10.8 billion.

In other words, after 6 years of buying Bitcoin, the company is now down -17% on its position.

By comparison, the S&P 500 is up +116% over this same timeframe.

Since MicroStrategy sold 32 Bitcoin at $77,135 per coin, their positions has lost -$11.8 billion in value.

This puts MicroStrategy's stock, $MSTR, down -77% since its record high.

Bear market is an understatement.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*ALPHABET UPSIZES EQUITY CAPITAL RAISE TO $84.75B FROM $80B

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

time in the market > timing the market

很多散户会反对，但是当你被市场毒打几年以后呢你就稳定下来了。从追求快感，到追求低调稳定。跟成长一样。

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes at its highest level on record, now on track for a 10-week win streak for the first time since 1985.

That's +$11.7 TRILLION in market cap since March 30th.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Wow, Berkshire Hathaway investing $10 billion into $GOOGL in a private placement as part of a broader $80 billion equity capital raise by the company to expand its AI infrastructure

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

The money printer go burr and our purchasing power dies

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The proposed US-Iran peace deal includes a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, per NYT.

The program is being called an international "investment fund," which the US would facilitate in the final deal.

This comes as Iran demands "reparations" to end the war.

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

Someone drove across Canada on FSD

[Whole Mars Catalog @wholemars]

they really fucking did it

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

Your new $100 bill
just with a larger number

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Trump Administration and the US Treasury Department are designing a $250 bill featuring President Trump, per the Washington Post.

If this is launched, President Trump would be the first living person to appear on a US currency since 1866.

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

你的购买力在跌

[Sky G.cph @skyguoCypherium]

这么多公司破万亿
钱是从哪来的
到底什么在跌

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

这是一篇非常好的科普。投资人必须知道自己的回报来自哪里。Brinson Model也是目前金融业公认的回报分析模型。能让你在高于回报率的角度分析自己的持仓优缺点。

我的報酬來自哪裡？ 10分鐘了解 Brinson Model 績效歸因模型 by Rany https://t.co/NIIvQcB1NY

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

Wow

[TheSonOfWalkley @TheSonOfWalkley]

BREAKING: ELON MUSK CONSIDERS MERGING $TSLA AND SPACEX AFTER IPO, per CNBC 👀

It’s happening !

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

给大家讲一个分辨投资人是运气还是技术的好用方式：

(Portfolio weight - Benchmark weight)*(Benchmark Sector Return - Total Benchmark Return)

这个公式是机构投资人用来衡量一个基金经理能力的公式。也叫做BF Model

它能让你看到一个人是因为运气好压中了板块，还是技术好产生了alpha。

推荐大家自己算一算自己的数据

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Product >> Brand

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

Tuesday's market will be very interesting

[GURGAVIN @gurgavin]

JUST IN : SHOTS FIRED OUTSIDE THE WHITE HOUSE

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

别多想，看涨。
看涨的原因也很简单，如下图：

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Trump is "seriously considering launching new strikes against Iran," Axios reports.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Trump: Warsh to lead the Fed today.