Business cycle wise, and macro structure wise (not just BTC), the most recent point of similar market positioning was October 2020.
Then: BTC 10k, ETH 300
Now: BTC 100k, ETH 3k
Both: Sentiment terrible
Poetry.
although i do think there’s a good chance the lows are in, i could definitely see something like this possibly playing out for 1 more shakeout
either way i’m chilling and holding spot, not letting any LTF noise get to me 😆
#Bitcoin
don't overcomplicate it. All you need is 2 Moving averages and the monthly timeframe.
Background:
🫴Once BTC crosses above WMA14 (monthly, red line), BTC is officially in a bull market. Just HODL or buy dips.
💸 Once BTC crosses under WMA14 --> sell signal (or HODL through the bear market if you're a no-seller ("you never sell your bitcoin")
💰Once BTC crosses under the 200w EMA, go all in (or buy at least a decent amount). Generational bottom is in (+/-10-15%)
NFA. DYOR.
$XRP Bullish weekly trend has been intact for almost 1 year now. ONLY thing you had to do was buy on signal and hodl. Immediate weekly support at $2.7 and next leg targets between $7-$8🚀
#Altcoins#XRPFamily#XRPHolders
$XRP 2017 fractal is still playing out imo, but is taking a little longer as this cycle seems to be just like 2017 but a bit stretched.. what days are the ETF deadlines again? 👀 also, what if the $26 moonboys are right? 😅
*FYI i have an exit strategy with percentages at key levels and will stick to it, shared on Patreon & Discord*
Keeping it simple.
// Pay less attention to the old man talking
// More attention to the chart
You could have ignored the news the entire cycle, and simply put on a big range on Bitcoin or the Total Altcoin marketcap charts and kill it.
I always use a simple HTF range and cycle structure. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the total altcoin market cap charts have always followed this structure so far every cycle.
1. Identify stage 3. Lower highs and lows from the bear market will transition into an accumulation range with equal highs and lows. Often below the range low.
2. Entry option 1: range low reclaim and cycle structure moving from stage 3 into stage 4. First macro higher high (trendshift).
or with Ethereum earlier:
3. Entry option 2-3: Range low retest or mid-range retest.
4. Price rallies into the range high (*first profit zone for me)
5. Price breaks the range high and rallies parabolically (often) into new highs (scale out more)
Even if you did not buy the range low reclaim and retest, or the mid-range reclaim you could still play the range high breakout into new highs.
Range high flips, get exposure/in, and you've got a clear invalidation if we find acceptance back inside the range.
Even if your directional bias is up for the longer cycle and hindsight proves you right, buying resistance puts you in a very difficult position in the meantime.
It means you are emotionally buying green into resistance (FOMO), but emotionally not buying, or worse, selling, the dips into support
- Local resistance means a higher probability of short/medium-term pullbacks
- No clear invalidation
- Because you bought emotionally, you will likely also sell emotionally. After a 20% dip in support, the higher time frame setup isn't invalidated.
So if you did not buy earlier, the total market cap range high retest in April/May, the Total 3 (total altcoin market cap) deviation and reclaim of the mid-range, or even earlier when the Total 3 retested the range low…
But you are now bullish, after weeks of green and a ton of upside, and you tell yourself that an old man talking is a good reason to buy into resistance, you are putting yourself in a high probability situation to come into rough water.
Again, high probability. Maybe we smash the resistance now — I believe we will this cycle — but I’m positioned from way earlier and lower. Resistance is and remains a high-probability zone for a pullback.
What will you do if you emotionally fomo in at the resistance, and we do get that 10-30% pullback into support? Will you turn bearish into support, sell for a loss? While the macro structure is still bullish?
Again:
> Not saying it should happen, but it's a higher probability zone for a pullback
> IMO better wait for a clear breakout and acceptance below, or simply dips into the local range support
> I'm not selling and have most of my exposure since the blue circle at the range low, and the green mid-range deviation.
> I took a little out as cycle profit at the range high, but still believe eventually we will break above and stay positioned for that.
> But before adding positions, I'll mainly wait for panic into support/key levels or a clear breakout.
> You don't need to trade news or care about CPI, PPI, or FOMC.
> You need a simple higher time frame range, form a bias and find support to enter close to your invalidation.
> You don't want to chase green and fomo resistance.
💥 Bookmark this for 2026 🔥
The sun hasn’t risen yet, but the charts were already glowing.
Bitcoin had broken $150K overnight, and the world was wide awake.
Institutions were pouring in BlackRock, Fidelity, even sovereign wealth funds.
Retail traders followed like moths to flame, leverage maxed, dreams inflated.
Crypto Twitter screamed “Super cycle!” like it was prophecy.
Every influencer posted laser eyes again.
TikTok teens turned into trading gurus overnight.
The media called it “the greatest wealth transfer in history.”
Billboards in Times Square flashed “Bitcoin to $200K Don’t Miss Out!”
Even your Uber driver asked if you’d bought the dip.
Derivatives volume exploded.
Perpetual futures were stacked like dominoes, funding rates through the roof.
Everyone was long.
Everyone was greedy.
Everyone was convinced this time was different.
Then it happened.
Bitcoin touched $200K.
For a moment, the world held its breath.
Screens lit up green, champagne popped, and victory tweets flooded the feed.
But beneath the surface, cracks had already formed.
Whales began to rotate out quietly.
On-chain data showed massive inflows to exchanges.
Retail ignored the signs, blinded by euphoria.
Leverage was still maxed.
The market was a house of cards.
Then came the first wick.
A sudden drop to $180K.
“Healthy correction,” they said.
But liquidations started to cascade.
Margin calls rang like alarm bells.
Institutions hedged.
Retail panicked.
Bitcoin fell to $160K in hours.
The super cycle narrative turned shaky.
Fear crept in like fog.
Crypto Twitter went silent.
Influencers deleted tweets.
The same billboards now read “Buy Gold.”
Bitcoin hit $140K, then $120K.
Liquidations reached billions.
The unwind was brutal.
Altcoins bled out.
Stablecoins depegged.
Exchanges halted withdrawals.
The panic was global.
Bitcoin hit $80K.
Then $60K.
Retail was wiped.
Institutions bought the dip again.
The cycle had completed its cruel arc.
But somewhere in the chaos, a new trader emerged.
No leverage.
No hype.
Just conviction.
And the cycle began again.
Because Bitcoin doesn’t die.
It resets.
It rebuilds.
It rises.
And next time, it won’t ask for permission.
#Bitcoin $BTC
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