What situation led India and Pakistan to reach a ceasefire agreement?
🧵1/6
The recent escalation between #India and #Pakistan has drawn global attention, particularly after India launched a precision strike on 11 Pakistani airbases. Among the key targets was Kirna Hills, a hardened military storage site for both nuclear weapons and conventional ammunition, near Mushaf Airbase in Sargodha.
📷: @JaidevJamwal
#IndiaPakistanWar
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Jobless claims more than expected, GDP lower than expected, Corporate Profits way lower than expected.
Get the drift…
PS: True effect of credit tightening yet to be seen & recent rate hike effects will also show true color in coming months…
Blackstone restricting redemptions on their flagship real estate fund (BREIT) for the 5th month in a row and effectively locking the door for investors that want out.
Definitely a sign of a healthy and liquid real estate market out there...
@saxena_puru@michaeljburry I think he is saying that he was wrong to sell in Jan end/ Feb early…
Time to sell is now thanks to BTFD…
BTFD can delay the inevitable- not cancel it…
BREAKING: In the face of the larger troubles engulfing the national office market, Union Bank Plaza in #DowntownLA sells at a big loss. https://t.co/ZjVdaDVZzd
⚠️ Commercial Real Estate, USA ⚠️
When a segment of market directly battered by increasing rates is overtly positive about the future - it should tell you something!
Is Commercial RE the next shoe to drop in this #BankingCrisis ?
Commercial Real Estate Business Leaders take on 2023 Vs. All Business Leaders take on 2023 - A Snapshot of JP Morgan 2023 Business Leaders Survey.
#JPMorganSurvey #commercialrealestate #CommercialLending
And this is not just restricted to US... The Lenders are Global Banks for one... The markets are down in other countries as well...
Distress levels in European real estate are at the highest in a decade, in part because of a decline in liquidity, according to a study by law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges. UK commercial property values fell more than 20% in the second half of 2022, MSCI Inc. data show. In the US, the drop was about 9%, according to Green Street.
What to look for when determining future bank fragility: "If you marry the turbulence on the asset side with the flight risk, what you will find is that there is more than one Silicon Valley Bank out there," says Stanford University Research Associate Amit Seru.
IS COMMERCAL REAL ESTATE A SYSTEMIC RISK FOR US BANKS?
Let's start with the vacancy rate of 18%, about the same as during the GFC peak
Mostly driven by small overbuilt markets (Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta)
LA, SF, DC, NYC not bad, coming off very high occupancy rates pre-COVID