Shooting the Gap

Mapping NBA player value through the lens of the CBA.
Platform launching soon. Stay tuned.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

Way too early analysis of Laker's Salary Cap situation for the summer of 2027. Read below.

Assumptions and facts:
- ✅J. Vanderbilt picks up his PO.
- 🔁C. Sexton declines his PO. LA holds his Non-Bird Rights to resign him to a salary that will start up to 11.24M in the first year of a new deal. He can resign for up to 4 years. Projecting 31.5M/3 years deal starting at 10M in 2027-2028.
- 🔁J. LaRavia. Becomes a FA, but can return to LA on a longer deal. His starting salary can be between 6M and 13.9M in the first year of a new deal. He can resign for up to 4 years. Projecting 24M/3 years deal starting at 7.4M in 2027-2028.
- ❌J. Hardy. TO gets declines, LA doesn't bring him back as a FA.
- ❌D. Knecht. TO gets declines, LA doesn't bring him back as a FA.
- 🔁B. James. TO gets declined for Bronny to become a RFA. Returns to LA on a bargain deal. 9MM/3 years sounds about right. His starting salary would be 2.78M in the first year of a new deal.
- ✅A. Thiero. TO options gets picked up.
- ❓Other FAs that can potentially return: K. Looney, Z. Williams via available Exceptions.

Before FA players returning:
- 174,309,514 for 8 players under contract.

With assumptions from above:
- 194,494,699 for 11 players under contract.

Projected First Apron for 2027-2028 season:
- 220,512,000.

Lakers Projected First Apron Space:
- 26,017,301.

Available Exceptions:
- BAE: 5,777,000.
- Non-Tax MLE: 15,869,000.
- Min. Vet: 2,584,139.

2027 draft picks:
- No first or second round picks.

After Lakers use full BAE and NTMLE:
- 216,140,699 for 13 players under contract.

Remaining First Apron Space:
- 4,371,301.
- The above number is enough to sign a player on a Vet Minimum or sign a player like Chris Mañon to a multi-year deal bringing the roster to the required minimum of 14 players.
- Lakers can also find a way to get a SRP in 2027 draft and sign this player to a guaranteed deal as 15th player on the roster if this opportunity presents itself.

There, of course, could be trades involving Jarred Vanderbilt and other players who are unlikely to be part of the long-term future for the Lakers (Hardy, Knecht), plus a Bronny reunion with LeBron, but this is where LA stands right now. Lakers positioned themselves well to maximize the summer of 2027.

Shoutout to @spotrac for the info on the screenshot below.

[Basketball University @UofBasketball]

Moussa Cissé, monster per possession player…

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@trey17113 Need to be able to shoot open C&S frees, attach close outs and roll from the weak side for lobs.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

Watching Ziaire Williams tape from last season, he has more to his game that meets the eye on offense as well.

Look at him absolutely shake Kevin Durant and get a contest and-1 on him and Tari Eason.

[Lakers Legacy @LakersLegacyPod]

Ziaire Williams is a helluva Defensive Playmaker.

We’re going to have a ton of Pick-6 Opportunities next year.

Now just imagine Mañon & Thiero next to this… 🤤

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@pilgeousx Hannes Steinbach would have been amazing at the 4 next to Chet or IHart.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@KnicksMemes @sheriff40 Seems like making a solid for his agency, so that their client gets the deal, and Knicks have better relationship there as well.

[Kris Pursiainen @krispursiainen]

Good call, kid

[Bobby Marks @BobbyMarks42]

For cap purposes:

2026/27: $2.2M (1 yos)

2027/28: $2.6M (2 yos)

For tax/apron purposes, $2.45M (2 yos) counts this season.

[Basketball University @UofBasketball]

Knicks! Dallas would be foolish not to match.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@TheMavsBlog I can’t imagine why more teams wouldn’t offer more competitive deals. You can turn around and trade Cisse at the deadline for a SRP or two if needed.

Like you tell me Brooklyn can’t use another big prospect after Claxton and we moved? Or Golden State after losing Post?

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

RT @IanBegley: The Moussa Cisse offer sheet from Knicks starts at veterans minimum of $2.5M, per league source. If Mavs don’t match offer s…

[Marc Stein @TheSteinLine]

Because it is the offseason and NBA rosters can stretch to 21 players, Dallas has the ability to match New York's offer to Moussa Cissé without making an immediate roster move.

The Knicks offered a two-year minimum deal ... essentially as far as the newly crowned champs can go.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@TheMavsBlog And they absolutely should, but Gafford needs to be moved cause

Lively, Gafford, Cisse and Morez is too much depth at the big spot.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

Knicks get Moussa, they hit it out of the park.

[Shams Charania @ShamsCharania]

Restricted free agent Moussa Cisse has agreed to a two-year contract offer sheet with the New York Knicks, sources tell ESPN. His salary is half guaranteed in the first year and 2027-28 is non-guaranteed. The Dallas Mavericks have 48 hours to match or not.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

It was:

- DJJ > Naji Marshall
- THJ > Klay (and promised starting spot)
- Josh Green > Quentin Grimes

Naji was a downgrade, other two were upgrades, but Grimes was the biggest one.

Mavericks fans have a bad memory of Grimes because he is the reason they ended up with Caleb Martin and his bad contract + gave up a high 2nd round pick that could have ended up Adou Thiero.

It was a terrible trade and almost as inexplicable as the Luka one, cause Grimes was great for the Mavs.

[Chucking Darts NBA & Draft Podcast @ChuckingDarts]

good stuff

[Mavs Film Room 🐴🎥 @MavsFilmRoom]

Moussa Cisse had 15 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 blocks in 20 minutes in his one game vs the Knicks this season

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@Baldmojito @Purpl3andGold What about Mamu?

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@kwonconey And people forget - all the picks Rob gave up now for Kessler, he should have gotten them all sent to Dallas for Luka anyways, and if he did that, people would still applaud him.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@spocritic @APH00PS Yes, but even long term it’s hard to see a top-5 value return with Wagler.

Doesn’t mean he is not going to be good, but in this draft you still should try to get a player who will be an All Star at that spot.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@IvSolly @mikegrib8 And have only two playmakers on the roster? This makes no sense.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

I don’t agree with a lot of Jason’s takes on the Lakers. I think a lot of them come from a place of eyes test vs. the reality of how good certain NBA players are.

One take I can’t absolutely have to push back on is:

“You would be thrilled with Kelly Oubre as your starting PF on opening night.”

The perception of Oubre (31) is that he is a good shooter and solid defender. But, it’s just not the case at all.

Look at the impact metrics below and how he stacks up against LaRavia (25) and Mamukelashvili (27), plus more detailed view of Kelly’s per year RAMP rankings.

I would love to have a real conversation about that.

@LakersHMA @volumebball @TheVolumeSports @TrevorLane

[Jason Timpf @_JasonLT]

New episode!

Got the old Lakers Collective crew (@TrevorLane and @jovanbuha) back together to recap the Lakers offseason!

What to make of the Kessler deal, the other FA signings, rookies in Summer League, and what happens next.

Link:

https://t.co/nPgmZG0UUi