Jobson Growthe

An idiot on the Internet.

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

Australia's mineral exploration gains face capital gains tax hurdle
https://t.co/qGqE6xNSeN

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

Thanks for the diesel, USA 🇺🇸🦅-> 🇦🇺🦘

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

@Kurva66

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

@Alexsei88

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

@respeculator @Alexsei88 Also my numbers in the above could be complete garbage. I used one quarter processing just the LGSP and another processing mostly ore and worked backwards from the known/reported figures to develop. I think it’s close but I’m also just an idiot on the internet.

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

Mgmt said a few times that there is more open pit material available than just the Iolanthe vein. The point of the current drilling in progress is "extensions to the existing stage 2 and stage 3 open pit mine designs" - so I gather the available material in the open pit is >1.6mt. Obviously tbd.

I mentioned 50k mtu/qtr because that is possible using only a LGSP/Ore ratio of 75%/25%. So supposing the limit to the open pit material is only 1.6mt that is ~3 years (see my calcs on this below).

Not sure on the cash just have to wait and see the quarterly I guess. $22m end of April, +$7m from March with receivables >$15m (at least it was positive, despite the production clusterf?).

Carbine ramp only began at the end of April so increased production not yet realised as cash. They also have the $7m + $24m in pre-payments from Cronimet and Traxys which is preventing them converting a portion of revenue into cash.

If you take the comment that they produced more in Carbine in April than the prior several quarter (>5000 mtu), based on a ramp that only started in the last week of the month - you can do the math on what the current production rate is (>10-12k/month) so hopefully looking better from here.

[Andrea Hotter @AndreaHotter]

Intensifying competition among Chinese smelters for domestic #zinc concentrates pulled the country's TCs below zero in late May, turning Fastmarkets' South China assessment negative for the first time on record - $(15)-15 per tonne

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

@DrCameronMurray Starting price/valuation matters like all financial assets

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

@calvinfroedge Min vol factor massively outperforms

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

@toiletkingcap

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

@Edark94 Tungstard

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

@bowtiedstocks 10/10 would lamb again

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

@antti_1977 @_Kohahdus_ @EQResourcesASX ETF buying

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

Amazing I am physically in Japan while this is happening

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

@Alexsei88 @Harmle551 Remember how steep the walls are at the base of the pit. It isn’t like a puddle where the 2D area from above will reduce linearly with the volume

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

@MrJohnnyRainman @jtourzan @AustralianSuper $29m

[Ian Zhang @SinaMin_CN]

Nikkei reported that Japan’s tungsten imports from China fell by 50%.

That is technically true.

But it misses the critical number.

Tungsten export to Japan have effectively stopped. Zero shipments since the overnight ban.

But...

Japan’s import data can still capture cargo that had already left China before the restriction fully hit. Material at sea does not disappear from customs data just because the policy changed at the Chinese border.

The Jan. 6 measure was effective immediately. If suppliers had cargo ready to clear, there was every incentive to push it through before the window closed. Anyone who has dealt with China-side customs timing will understand how quickly that behaviour can happen around a sudden policy change.

But once the control had landed, no Chinese exporter was going to risk jail time just to sell Japan a few extra tonnes of tungsten.

So from Japan’s side, imports look like they are falling.

From China’s side, the flow has already stopped.

That is the real story.

And the impact on Japan’s tungsten industry is not theoretical.

China exported only 2 tonnes of APT, which 0 went to Japan in 26Q1. Japan is now trying to work around the shortage by importing tungsten scrap from other countries. Imports of tungsten scrap from the US jumped by around 1,000%.

That is emergency substitution in desperation.

The pressure is already hitting Japanese manufacturers.

Mitsubishi Materials has announced price increases of more than 3x for some tungsten materials from June orders.

Sumitomo Electric says procurement from China has stopped. Around 30% of its cutting-tool raw material previously came from China.

NS Tool says tungsten prices have risen around 7x over the past year, making earnings forecasts difficult.

OSG is increasing imports from Europe and warning that cost pass-through is unavoidable.

One Osaka carbide toolmaker is reportedly considering production cuts of around 20%.

Japan can recycle more scraps. It can pay more for US, European and Southeast Asian material. It can stretch inventories.

But it's not sustainable. Recycling cannot instantly replace a Chinese supply chain that took decades to build.

The market intelligence I have seen suggests some Japanese users may only have enough tungsten to last until around late June. If that is even roughly correct, the next few weeks matter.

This is why tungsten should be watched closely.

It is not just a niche metal. It is critical for carbide cutting tools, automotive and aerospace machining, semiconductors, electronics and defence applications.

China spent decades controlling the upstream supply and the licensing channel. Multiple laws & regulations have been revised to tighten their control.

A 50% fall in imports sounds manageable.

Zero China-side exports is the warning signal.

[Jobson Growthe @ShowerCapAM]

@PinguCapital @nemozip00 @bowtiedstocks In b4 soft landing